HTZ · TickerCove

HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc.Industrials · Rental & Leasing Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.88 · now $1.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HTZ has typically landed between $1.35 and $2.50 — a range of −28.1% to +32.9% from the issuance price $1.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,287 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.88 · 6% of range

$1.51 low$7.81 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.3%

typical move · IQR 22.8%

−28.1%worst (p90)+32.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HTZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.88 (+0.0%)
typical $1.8 (-4.3%)
middle 50% $1.59–$2.01
90% range $1.35–$2.5

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,287 windows spanning 2021-07-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-06-16	−63.9%	−63.9%	+3.0%
2026-06-17	−63.6%	−63.6%	+6.4%
2026-06-15	−63.5%	−64.3%	+0.2%
3 best
2025-03-25	+162.1%	+0.0%	+162.1%
2025-03-24	+146.5%	−4.1%	+147.7%
2025-03-21	+145.5%	−4.9%	+145.5%

1,287 overlapping windows · 2021-07-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−3.5%

n=5

Feb

60%

−0.8%

n=5

Mar

40%

−1.4%

n=5

Apr

60%

+12.4%

n=5

May

20%

−5.8%

n=5

Jun

40%

−15.3%

n=5

Jul

40%

+1.3%

n=5

Aug

33%

−2.8%

n=6

Sep

50%

−2.2%

n=6

Oct

40%

+0.0%

n=5

Nov

40%

+9.9%

n=5

Dec

40%

−2.0%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-11	Moore Michael S.	officer	Sale	40,919 @ $6.07	$248K	−3.5% of holding	−17.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,119,183	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	Leef Eric	officer	Sale	21,458 @ $5.67	$122K	−5.1% of holding	+13.1%	−29.1%	398,518	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-15	Leef Eric	officer	Sale	42,917 @ $5.78	$248K	−9.3% of holding	−8.3%	−18.3%	419,976	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05	Leef Eric	officer	Sale	14,578 @ $4.28	$62K	−3.0% of holding	−3.9%	+14.0%	479,245	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05	Leef Eric	officer	Sale	6,488 @ $4.27	$28K	−1.3% of holding	−3.9%	+14.0%	493,823	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05	Leef Eric	officer	Sale	700 @ $4.29	$3K	−0.1% of holding	−3.9%	+14.0%	478,545	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-22	Dube Sandeep	officer	Withheld for tax	166,545	1,118,203	Form 4
2026-06-30	Vougessis Evangeline	director	Award / grant	5,519	166,691	Form 4
2026-06-30	BLAKE FRANCIS S	director	Award / grant	5,519	126,130	Form 4
2026-06-17	Haralson Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	149,961	1,435,994	Form 4
2026-06-14	Moore Michael S.	officer	Withheld for tax	140,822	978,361	Form 4
2026-05-28	Vougessis Evangeline	director	Award / grant	31,877	161,172	Form 4
2026-05-28	Clark Dougherty Lucy	director	Award / grant	31,877	102,766	Form 4
2026-05-28	INTRIERI VINCENT J	director	Award / grant	31,877	129,684	Form 4
2026-05-28	BLAKE FRANCIS S	director	Award / grant	31,877	120,611	Form 4
2026-04-01	West W Gilbert	director	Withheld for tax	250,577	2,583,003	Form 4
2026-03-31	BLAKE FRANCIS S	director	Award / grant	2,712	88,734	Form 4
2026-03-31	Vougessis Evangeline	director	Award / grant	2,712	129,295	Form 4
2026-03-03	Haralson Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	28,190	1,585,955	Form 4
2026-03-03	Berg Christopher G.	officer	Withheld for tax	18,375	639,554	Form 4
2026-03-03	Moore Michael S.	officer	Withheld for tax	11,273	1,012,391	Form 4
2026-03-03	Bussani Piero	director	Withheld for tax	2,646	531,796	Form 4
2026-03-03	Chopra Jyoti	director	Withheld for tax	1,626	414,852	Form 4
2026-03-03	Kosman Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	1,547	187,690	Form 4
2026-03-02	Kosman Mark	officer	Award / grant	57,737	189,237	Form 4
2026-03-02	West W Gilbert	director	Award / grant	923,788	2,833,580	Form 4
2026-03-02	Dube Sandeep	officer	Award / grant	288,684	1,284,748	Form 4
2026-03-02	Berg Christopher G.	officer	Award / grant	173,211	657,929	Form 4
2026-03-02	Bussani Piero	director	Award / grant	173,211	534,442	Form 4
2026-03-02	Chopra Jyoti	director	Award / grant	115,474	416,478	Form 4
2026-03-02	Moore Michael S.	officer	Award / grant	173,211	1,023,664	Form 4
2026-03-02	Haralson Scott	officer	Award / grant	288,684	1,614,145	Form 4
2026-01-02	Berg Christopher G.	officer	Withheld for tax	41,190	484,718	Form 4
2026-01-02	Chopra Jyoti	director	Award / grant	287,357	287,357	Form 4
2026-01-02	Chopra Jyoti	director	Award / grant	13,647	301,004	Form 4
2026-01-02	Bussani Piero	director	Award / grant	335,250	335,250	Form 4
2026-01-02	Bussani Piero	director	Award / grant	25,981	361,231	Form 4
2025-12-31	Vougessis Evangeline	director	Award / grant	2,432	126,583	Form 4
2025-12-31	BLAKE FRANCIS S	director	Award / grant	2,432	86,022	Form 4
2025-10-01	Kosman Mark	officer	Award / grant	131,500	131,500	Form 4
2025-10-01	Moore Michael S.	officer	Award / grant	147,711	1,228,164	Form 4
2025-09-30	BLAKE FRANCIS S	director	Award / grant	1,839	83,590	Form 4
2025-09-30	Vougessis Evangeline	director	Award / grant	1,839	124,151	Form 4
2025-07-22	Dube Sandeep	officer	Withheld for tax	130,519	996,064	Form 4
2025-07-08	Lee Martin Katherine	officer	Withheld for tax	22,546	833,254	Form 4
2025-07-01	Lee Martin Katherine	officer	Withheld for tax	16,864	855,800	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i