HTH · TickerCove

HTHHilltop Holdings Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.70 · now $38.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HTH has typically landed between $34.57 and $43.68 — a range of −10.7% to +12.9% from the issuance price $38.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$38.7 · 88% of range

$30.38 low$39.79 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 9.9%

−10.7%worst (p90)+12.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HTH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $38.7 (+0.0%)
typical $38.8 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $36.88–$40.72
90% range $34.57–$43.68

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−46.4%	−46.4%	+1.1%
2020-02-19	−40.5%	−46.5%	+1.0%
2020-02-20	−39.8%	−46.6%	+0.9%
3 best
2020-03-18	+38.8%	+0.0%	+46.4%
2020-03-30	+36.1%	−8.1%	+36.1%
2012-04-25	+36.1%	+0.0%	+36.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−1.2%

n=20

Feb

60%

+1.3%

n=20

Mar

50%

−1.4%

n=20

Apr

45%

+1.0%

n=20

May

60%

+3.3%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.2%

n=20

Jul

50%

−0.3%

n=20

Aug

60%

+0.8%

n=20

Sep

25%

−0.2%

n=20

Oct

55%

+2.8%

n=20

Nov

75%

+4.7%

n=20

Dec

50%

+0.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	5,000 @ $38.80	$194K	−16.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	25,641	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	5,000 @ $38.80	$194K	−14.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	30,641	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $39.80	$398K	−21.9% of holding	+0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	35,641	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-13	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $39.50	$395K	−18.0% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	45,641	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	455 @ $40.25	$18K	−0.8% of holding	−2.1%	not yet — horizon still open	55,641	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-04	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $40.25	$403K	−15.1% of holding	−2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	56,096	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $40.00	$400K	−13.1% of holding	−2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	66,096	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	12,100 @ $40.00	$484K	−13.7% of holding	−5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	76,096	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $38.00	$380K	−10.3% of holding	+3.3%	not yet — horizon still open	87,016	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $38.00	$380K	−9.3% of holding	+8.7%	not yet — horizon still open	97,016	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $37.75	$378K	−8.5% of holding	+6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	107,016	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $37.25	$373K	−7.9% of holding	+5.1%	not yet — horizon still open	117,016	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05	Bornemann Keith E.	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $38.00	$76K	−20.2% of holding	−5.8%	not yet — horizon still open	7,912	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-05	FORD GERALD J	director	Sale	259,771 @ $37.98	$9.9M	−97.1% of holding	+0.4%	−7.9%	7,867	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06	Thompson Steve B	officer	Sale	9,025 @ $39.84	$360K	−8.9% of holding	−7.0%	−13.6%	91,817	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Winges Martin Bradley	officer	Sale	23,582 @ $38.44	$906K	−26.4% of holding	−2.4%	−8.1%	65,831	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Winges Martin Bradley	officer	Sale	2,408 @ $38.66	$93K	−2.6% of holding	−2.4%	−8.1%	89,413	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Winges Martin Bradley	officer	Sale	10 @ $38.47	$385	−0.0% of holding	−2.4%	−8.1%	91,821	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Bornemann Keith E.	officer	Sale	2,200 @ $35.00	$77K	−20.2% of holding	−3.3%	−3.3%	8,692	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $35.36	$354K	+8.5% of holding	−6.2%	+0.6%	127,429	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $35.21	$352K	+9.3% of holding	−6.1%	+4.1%	117,429	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $34.75	$348K	+10.3% of holding	−4.9%	+4.2%	107,429	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $34.57	$346K	+11.4% of holding	−5.5%	+3.3%	97,429	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-21	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $33.19	$332K	+12.9% of holding	−2.6%	+6.5%	87,429	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-20	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $32.93	$329K	+14.8% of holding	−0.3%	+10.0%	77,429	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $32.92	$329K	+17.4% of holding	+2.5%	+10.4%	67,429	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $31.97	$320K	+21.1% of holding	+3.2%	+14.0%	57,429	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-15	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $32.37	$324K	+26.7% of holding	+3.0%	+16.3%	47,429	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Thompson Steve B	officer	Sale	6,640 @ $32.68	$217K	−6.1% of holding	+3.0%	+16.3%	102,998	Form 4 · filed 45 days after the trade
2025-08-14	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $32.70	$327K	+36.5% of holding	+1.7%	+15.5%	37,429	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-13	Thompson Steve B	officer	Sale	11,687 @ $31.09	$363K	−9.6% of holding	+5.1%	+13.7%	109,638	Form 4 · filed 47 days after the trade
2024-08-29	Thompson Steve B	officer	Sale	5,332 @ $32.91	$175K	−4.6% of holding	−5.2%	−7.1%	110,838	Form 4 · filed 396 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

206 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	PRESTIDGE COREY	officer	Award / grant	699	188,223	Form 4
2026-08-21	Thompson Steve B	officer	Award / grant	422	107,204	Form 4
2026-08-21	Winges Martin Bradley	officer	Award / grant	158	85,155	Form 4
2026-08-21	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Award / grant	122	129,917	Form 4
2026-08-21	FORD GERALD J	director	Award / grant	0	7,867	Form 4
2026-07-23	Bobbitt Rhodes R	director	Award / grant	1,180	88,196	Form 4
2026-07-23	Nichols W Robert III	director	Award / grant	1,180	2,195	Form 4
2026-07-23	Lewis Lee	director	Award / grant	1,180	54,919	Form 4
2026-07-23	Taylor Robert JR	director	Award / grant	1,180	46,470	Form 4
2026-07-23	Russell Kenneth D	director	Award / grant	1,180	2,137	Form 4
2026-07-23	CRANDALL J TAYLOR	director	Award / grant	1,180	2,137	Form 4
2026-07-23	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Award / grant	1,180	129,796	Form 4
2026-07-23	WEBB CARL B	director	Award / grant	1,180	132,078	Form 4
2026-07-23	NICHOLS TOM C	director	Award / grant	1,180	16,317	Form 4
2026-07-23	Bober Dana L	director	Award / grant	291	5,535	Form 4
2026-07-23	Haworth Stephen H	director	Award / grant	291	5,535	Form 4
2026-07-23	Bober Dana L	director	Award / grant	5,244	5,244	Form 4
2026-07-23	Haworth Stephen H	director	Award / grant	5,244	5,244	Form 4
2026-07-01	PARMENTER DARREN E	officer	Award / grant	80	96,164	Form 4
2026-07-01	PRESTIDGE COREY	officer	Award / grant	66	187,525	Form 4
2026-07-01	Bornemann Keith E.	officer	Award / grant	60	7,972	Form 4
2026-07-01	Furr William B	officer	Award / grant	50	197,925	Form 4
2026-06-30	WEBB CARL B	director	Award / grant	343	130,898	Form 4
2026-06-30	Taylor Robert JR	director	Award / grant	203	45,290	Form 4
2026-06-30	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Award / grant	171	128,616	Form 4
2026-05-22	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Award / grant	113	128,445	Form 4
2026-05-22	FORD GERALD J	director	Award / grant	0	7,867	Form 4
2026-05-22	PRESTIDGE COREY	officer	Award / grant	651	187,459	Form 4
2026-05-22	Winges Martin Bradley	officer	Award / grant	147	84,997	Form 4
2026-05-22	Thompson Steve B	officer	Award / grant	394	106,782	Form 4
2026-04-01	FORD JEREMY B	director	Award / grant	697	1,644,035	Form 4
2026-04-01	Thompson Steve B	officer	Award / grant	697	106,388	Form 4
2026-04-01	Winges Martin Bradley	officer	Award / grant	697	84,850	Form 4
2026-04-01	PRESTIDGE COREY	officer	Award / grant	626	186,808	Form 4
2026-04-01	PARMENTER DARREN E	officer	Award / grant	449	96,084	Form 4
2026-04-01	Bornemann Keith E.	officer	Award / grant	56	9,912	Form 4
2026-04-01	Furr William B	officer	Award / grant	46	197,875	Form 4
2026-03-31	WEBB CARL B	director	Award / grant	376	130,555	Form 4
2026-03-31	Taylor Robert JR	director	Award / grant	223	45,087	Form 4
2026-03-31	SOBEL JONATHAN S	director	Award / grant	188	128,331	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i