Issued 2026-09-16 at $170.79 · now $170.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HSY has typically landed between $155.61 and $187.05 — a range of −8.9% to +9.5% from the issuance price $170.79.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($170.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HSY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $170.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $170.79 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $171.8 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $164.1–$179.51
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $155.61–$187.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −30.5% | −30.5% | +0.4% |
| 2020-02-18 | −27.1% | −27.1% | +1.1% |
| 2020-02-20 | −26.5% | −27.5% | +0.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +28.6% | +0.0% | +31.4% |
| 2026-01-07 | +28.6% | +0.0% | +28.6% |
| 2025-02-05 | +27.9% | +0.0% | +27.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$35.4B
market cap
$5.37
EPS (TTM)
32.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$11.7B
'20'25
Net income$883M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr19.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.17
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$382.92
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$131.26
- Analyst target · range $185.00–$260.00$215.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$170.79
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
79%
+3.9%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.9%
n=19
May
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
63%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
58%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Oct
39%
−1.0%
n=18
Nov
56%
+1.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,049 @ $173.44 | $1.6M | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 817,064 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 868 @ $174.16 | $151K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 816,196 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 77 @ $175.05 | $13K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 816,119 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6 @ $172.94 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 826,113 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,172 @ $173.58 | $724K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 831,947 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,093 @ $174.37 | $714K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 827,854 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,704 @ $175.50 | $299K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 826,150 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 31 @ $176.01 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 826,119 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,195 @ $171.47 | $1.1M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 838,599 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,480 @ $172.17 | $427K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 836,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,325 @ $170.80 | $226K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 844,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,489 @ $173.46 | $1.3M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 847,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,822 @ $174.26 | $318K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 846,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 355 @ $171.13 | $61K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 855,764 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 334 @ $172.49 | $58K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 855,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,657 @ $173.46 | $1.5M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 857,462 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,343 @ $174.33 | $234K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 856,119 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,525 @ $175.34 | $793K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 866,817 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,848 @ $174.63 | $323K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 871,342 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,666 @ $172.45 | $287K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 874,453 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,263 @ $173.50 | $219K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 873,190 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 698 @ $176.16 | $123K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 866,119 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,509 @ $177.38 | $977K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 878,155 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,680 @ $178.58 | $300K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 876,475 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,478 @ $175.51 | $259K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 884,641 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 977 @ $176.61 | $173K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 883,664 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 356 @ $179.09 | $64K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 876,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,463 @ $176.18 | $786K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 891,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,986 @ $177.55 | $530K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 888,403 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,264 @ $178.34 | $404K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 886,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 267 @ $175.95 | $47K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 895,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20 @ $179.08 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 886,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,149 @ $176.34 | $1.3M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 897,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,677 @ $175.77 | $295K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 904,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,052 @ $177.18 | $186K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 896,241 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 122 @ $178.18 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 896,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,866 @ $179.41 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 910,253 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,898 @ $180.34 | $523K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 907,355 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 642 @ $181.40 | $116K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 906,713 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 478 @ $182.64 | $87K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 906,235 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 116 @ $183.58 | $21K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 906,119 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,703 @ $181.41 | $1.0M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 916,460 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,956 @ $180.72 | $715K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 922,163 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 341 @ $182.23 | $62K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 916,119 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,799 @ $185.67 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 930,320 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,565 @ $186.30 | $664K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 926,755 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 636 @ $187.27 | $119K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 926,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,953 @ $186.63 | $924K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 941,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,762 @ $187.21 | $891K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 936,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 285 @ $188.20 | $54K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 936,119 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,616 @ $189.59 | $1.6M | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 946,587 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 821 @ $188.72 | $155K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 955,203 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 468 @ $190.07 | $89K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 946,119 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95 @ $187.04 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 956,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,180 @ $186.47 | $1.3M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 958,420 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,303 @ $188.29 | $245K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 956,119 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 998 @ $187.73 | $187K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 957,422 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 519 @ $185.69 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 965,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,874 @ $189.40 | $923K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 966,692 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | HERSHEY TRUST CO TRUSTEE IN TRUST FOR MILTON HERSHEY SCHOOL | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,216 @ $188.50 | $795K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 971,566 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
14 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Hoytink Heather Carol | officer | Award / grant | 12,024 | 12,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Taffet Stacy | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,888 | 11,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Arends Mitchell Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 3,843 | 3,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Mahlan Deirdre | director | Award / grant | 252 | 1,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kraus Maria T | director | Award / grant | 252 | 3,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Park Joseph Ryangho | director | Award / grant | 257 | 257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Persaud Guy | director | Award / grant | 391 | 391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Singleton Harold III | director | Award / grant | 252 | 1,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Quintero-Johnson Marie | director | Award / grant | 252 | 1,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | OZAN KEVIN M | director | Award / grant | 252 | 2,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nalebuff Barry James | director | Award / grant | 252 | 2,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Robbin-Coker Cordel | director | Award / grant | 252 | 1,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Curoe Timothy William | director | Award / grant | 252 | 2,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Brandt Christopher W | director | Award / grant | 252 | 1,232 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Scott Scott Franklin | House | sale | 2026-02-23 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Scott Scott Franklin | House | sale | 2026-02-23 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Scott Scott Franklin | House | sale | 2026-02-23 | 2026-02-10 | $50–100K |
| Sheldon Whitehouse | Senate | purchase | 2025-12-01 | 2025-11-21 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-31 | 2025-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2025-05-16 | 2025-04-11 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-05-14 | 2025-04-01 | $1–15K |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | House | purchase | 2025-05-06 | 2025-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-04-28 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.