HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Hotel & Motelas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.76 · now $21.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HST has typically landed between $19.17 and $24.62 — a range of −11.9% to +13.1% from the issuance price $21.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$19.17worst · -11.9%$24.62best · +13.1%
  • now $21.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.04 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.91–$23.17
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.17–$24.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−49.3%−49.3%+0.0%
2008-09-10−46.7%−46.7%+13.6%
2008-09-18−45.1%−53.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08+105.9%+0.0%+105.9%
2009-03-30+102.9%+0.0%+109.8%
2009-03-31+96.3%+0.0%+99.1%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$16.8B
market cap
$1.45
EPS (TTM)
16.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$6.1B
'20'25
Net income$765M
'20'25
Free cash flow$858M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.86
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $21.76$19.69$49.74
  • DCF (intrinsic)$45.42
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$47.67
  • Analyst target · range $23.00–$27.00$26.13
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$21.76

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−1.6%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+7.8%
n=19
May
37%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
−2.6%
n=19
Jul
47%
+1.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
−1.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
61%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
78%
+3.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$26$152026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — LENTZ MICHAEL E2026-08-19: 2 insider sales, $1.5M — TYRRELL NATHAN S …2026-05-26: 2 insider sales, $436K — TYRRELL NATHAN S, RAKOWICH WALTER C2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — TYRRELL NATHAN S2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $253K — LENTZ MICHAEL E2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $168K — TYRRELL NATHAN S2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $217K — TYRRELL NATHAN S2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $617K — LENTZ MICHAEL E2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $617K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $385K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $253K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer LENTZ MICHAEL E — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer TYRRELL NATHAN S — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer TYRRELL NATHAN S — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer TYRRELL NATHAN S — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RAKOWICH WALTER C — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer TYRRELL NATHAN S — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer LENTZ MICHAEL E — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer TYRRELL NATHAN S — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer TYRRELL NATHAN S — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer LENTZ MICHAEL E — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerSale56,757 @ $23.26$1.3M−17.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open274,779Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-19TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerSale33,882 @ $23.25$788K−5.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open618,207Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerSale30,000 @ $23.00$690K−4.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open652,089Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerSale15,569 @ $23.00$358K−2.2% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open682,089Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26RAKOWICH WALTER CdirectorSale3,408 @ $22.90$78K−4.3% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open76,537Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerSale58,579 @ $22.00$1.3M−7.7% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open697,658Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-27LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerSale12,673 @ $19.95$253K−3.7% of holding+4.4%+6.6%331,536Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerSale9,086 @ $18.47$168K−1.4% of holding−0.5%+29.0%659,841Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerSale11,954 @ $18.15$217K−1.8% of holding+3.1%+30.8%668,927Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerSale35,000 @ $17.64$617K−11.8% of holding+1.1%+20.4%262,094Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19RAKOWICH WALTER CdirectorSale4,644 @ $15.38$71K−6.1% of holding+1.6%+2.0%71,425Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

121 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerGift4,300613,907Form 4
2026-07-15Stein A WilliamdirectorAward / grant4,08620,566Form 4
2026-07-15BAGLIVO MARYdirectorAward / grant3,71319,782Form 4
2026-07-15LAING DIANAdirectorAward / grant1,9016,345Form 4
2026-07-15Preusse Mary HogandirectorAward / grant4,13321,027Form 4
2026-07-15Smith Gordon HdirectorAward / grant6,65248,371Form 4
2026-05-20Stein A WilliamdirectorAward / grant8,52089,214Form 4
2026-05-20Smith Gordon HdirectorAward / grant8,520130,354Form 4
2026-05-20BULLS HERMAN EdirectorAward / grant8,52054,806Form 4
2026-05-20BAGLIVO MARYdirectorAward / grant8,52079,998Form 4
2026-05-20Preusse Mary HogandirectorAward / grant8,52090,032Form 4
2026-05-20RAKOWICH WALTER CdirectorAward / grant8,52079,945Form 4
2026-05-20LAING DIANAdirectorAward / grant8,52044,742Form 4
2026-05-14OTTINGER JOSEPHofficerWithheld for tax4644,661Form 4
2026-04-15LAING DIANAdirectorAward / grant3894,444Form 4
2026-04-15Smith Gordon HdirectorAward / grant1,56641,719Form 4
2026-04-15Stein A WilliamdirectorAward / grant93016,480Form 4
2026-04-15Preusse Mary HogandirectorAward / grant94216,894Form 4
2026-04-15BAGLIVO MARYdirectorAward / grant83816,068Form 4
2026-02-27LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerOption exercise13,980344,209Form 4
2026-02-27LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerOption exercise13,9800Form 4
2026-02-17RISOLEO JAMES FdirectorWithheld for tax216,8033,096,034Form 4
2026-02-17TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerWithheld for tax62,919756,237Form 4
2026-02-17GHOSH SOURAVdirectorWithheld for tax55,441512,010Form 4
2026-02-17Aslaksen Julie PofficerWithheld for tax31,153349,219Form 4
2026-02-17LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerWithheld for tax27,181330,229Form 4
2026-02-17OTTINGER JOSEPHofficerWithheld for tax5,94644,707Form 4
2026-02-17TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerAward / grant125,585819,156Form 4
2026-02-17OTTINGER JOSEPHofficerAward / grant11,93050,653Form 4
2026-02-17RISOLEO JAMES FdirectorAward / grant518,0463,312,837Form 4
2026-02-17LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerAward / grant69,073357,410Form 4
2026-02-17GHOSH SOURAVdirectorAward / grant113,029567,451Form 4
2026-02-17Aslaksen Julie PofficerAward / grant69,073380,372Form 4
2026-02-09RISOLEO JAMES FdirectorWithheld for tax27,9372,794,791Form 4
2026-02-09RISOLEO JAMES FdirectorWithheld for tax26,2282,822,728Form 4
2026-02-09GHOSH SOURAVdirectorWithheld for tax9,668454,422Form 4
2026-02-09TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerWithheld for tax8,198693,571Form 4
2026-02-09TYRRELL NATHAN SofficerWithheld for tax7,612701,769Form 4
2026-02-09GHOSH SOURAVdirectorWithheld for tax6,708464,090Form 4
2026-02-09LENTZ MICHAEL EofficerWithheld for tax4,098288,337Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-06-092025-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Steve CohenHousesale2025-01-102024-12-11$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-12-062023-11-03$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-10$15–50K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-04-072023-03-24$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousesale2022-09-142022-08-03$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2022-08-102022-07-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-07-072022-06-27$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.