Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.96 · now $34.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HRTG has typically landed between $26.65 and $49.69 — a range of −23.8% to +42.1% from the issuance price $34.96.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,076 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-05-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HRTG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.96 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.7 (+2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.17–$40.24
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.65–$49.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,076 windows spanning 2014-05-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −52.4% | −52.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-09-21 | −51.5% | −51.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-12 | −51.2% | −51.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-08-05 | +129.7% | +0.0% | +129.7% |
| 2024-08-06 | +124.4% | +0.0% | +129.7% |
| 2024-08-02 | +116.5% | −3.3% | +116.7% |
3,076 overlapping windows · 2014-05-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
17%
−2.2%
n=12
Feb
67%
+2.1%
n=12
Mar
50%
+8.3%
n=12
Apr
42%
−3.6%
n=12
May
58%
+3.0%
n=12
Jun
62%
+0.4%
n=13
Jul
46%
−0.6%
n=13
Aug
62%
+8.5%
n=13
Sep
69%
+2.0%
n=13
Oct
25%
−4.9%
n=12
Nov
92%
+13.7%
n=12
Dec
42%
−1.9%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $35.25 | $88K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,035,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 6,565 @ $33.81 | $222K | −7.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $35.10 | $88K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,038,455 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $33.91 | $312K | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 87,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $34.88 | $349K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,040,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $33.68 | $118K | −12.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $34.55 | $173K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,050,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $34.16 | $342K | −2.0% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 492,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $34.31 | $172K | −0.5% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,055,955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Moura Timothy | officer | Sale | 15,104 @ $32.49 | $491K | −9.4% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,941 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $30.03 | $276K | −8.7% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $26.58 | $244K | −8.0% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $24.36 | $224K | −7.4% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,788 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | WHITING PAUL L | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $23.50 | $353K | +17.2% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | WHITING PAUL L | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $24.45 | $24K | +1.0% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,126 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $28.99 | $267K | −6.9% of holding | −31.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 123,988 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 8,034 @ $27.52 | $221K | −0.8% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,061,255 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 300 @ $28.40 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,060,955 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Moura Timothy | officer | Sale | 16,325 @ $26.08 | $426K | −9.3% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Moura Timothy | officer | Sale | 8,444 @ $25.13 | $212K | −4.6% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,370 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Moura Timothy | officer | Sale | 24,619 @ $25.78 | $635K | −11.7% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 8,700 @ $25.69 | $223K | −6.1% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,688 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Moura Timothy | officer | Sale | 1,102 @ $26.21 | $29K | −0.6% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 184,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 500 @ $26.19 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 8,334 @ $25.39 | $212K | −0.8% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,069,289 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Moura Timothy | officer | Sale | 28,223 @ $26.60 | $751K | −11.8% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,445 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Moura Timothy | officer | Sale | 910 @ $27.43 | $25K | −0.4% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,535 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Sale | 7,893 @ $28.35 | $224K | −5.3% of holding | −7.7% | +11.5% | 142,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 8,134 @ $24.10 | $196K | −0.7% of holding | +15.8% | +28.8% | 1,120,370 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 200 @ $24.85 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | +15.8% | +28.8% | 1,120,170 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 8,234 @ $26.02 | $214K | −0.7% of holding | −6.1% | −8.7% | 1,128,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 100 @ $26.67 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | −8.7% | 1,128,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 8,334 @ $29.48 | $246K | −0.7% of holding | −14.6% | −25.6% | 1,136,838 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 1,709 @ $28.85 | $49K | −0.1% of holding | −12.2% | −31.3% | 1,185,806 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 6,291 @ $28.42 | $179K | −0.5% of holding | −12.5% | −32.7% | 1,187,515 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $28.36 | $199K | −0.6% of holding | −7.6% | −29.5% | 1,193,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 8,331 @ $28.21 | $235K | −1.5% of holding | −3.8% | −36.5% | 550,425 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 4,360 @ $26.27 | $115K | −0.4% of holding | +7.6% | −29.5% | 1,204,780 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 2,815 @ $27.44 | $77K | −0.2% of holding | +7.6% | −29.5% | 1,201,965 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 1,159 @ $28.23 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | +7.6% | −29.5% | 1,200,806 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $29.40 | $1.5M | −10.0% of holding | −0.1% | −32.8% | 449,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $30.77 | $154K | −0.4% of holding | −5.4% | −32.7% | 1,209,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $30.39 | $152K | −0.4% of holding | −2.2% | −30.2% | 1,214,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $29.10 | $291K | −0.8% of holding | −3.4% | −34.0% | 1,219,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 19,929 @ $24.18 | $482K | −3.4% of holding | +6.8% | −19.0% | 558,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 71 @ $24.00 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +17.1% | +8.3% | 578,685 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 7,467 @ $23.01 | $172K | −0.6% of holding | +27.5% | +12.2% | 1,230,007 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 867 @ $23.02 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | +27.5% | +12.2% | 1,229,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 58,715 @ $27.62 | $1.6M | −10.5% of holding | +4.0% | −8.5% | 499,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 32,286 @ $26.97 | $871K | −5.5% of holding | +4.0% | −8.5% | 557,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 8,999 @ $25.90 | $233K | −1.5% of holding | +4.0% | −8.5% | 590,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 6,803 @ $24.16 | $164K | −1.2% of holding | −8.1% | +8.5% | 578,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 9,397 @ $24.61 | $231K | −1.6% of holding | −3.2% | +11.9% | 589,359 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $25.18 | $96K | −0.6% of holding | −3.2% | +11.9% | 585,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 7,267 @ $27.08 | $197K | −0.6% of holding | −16.4% | −0.4% | 1,238,541 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 1,067 @ $28.33 | $30K | −0.1% of holding | −16.4% | −0.4% | 1,237,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 57,138 @ $23.88 | $1.4M | −8.2% of holding | +9.1% | +10.6% | 641,909 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 42,862 @ $24.52 | $1.1M | −6.7% of holding | +9.1% | +10.6% | 599,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.61 | $615K | −2.0% of holding | +15.0% | +14.4% | 1,245,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $24.17 | $483K | −3.2% of holding | +1.2% | +13.3% | 598,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
47 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | WHITING PAUL L | director | Gift | 9,662 | 96,167 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Apostolou Panagiotis | director | Award / grant | 2,703 | 169,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WHITING PAUL L | director | Award / grant | 2,703 | 105,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Award / grant | 2,703 | 451,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Barlas Irini | director | Award / grant | 2,703 | 71,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Vattamattam Joseph | director | Award / grant | 2,703 | 63,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Withheld for tax | 149,632 | 1,077,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Withheld for tax | 72,549 | 502,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Moura Timothy | officer | Withheld for tax | 47,549 | 239,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Withheld for tax | 36,274 | 150,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Withheld for tax | 10,588 | 28,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Award / grant | 3,037 | 174,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Award / grant | 12,147 | 186,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Award / grant | 25,960 | 1,146,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Award / grant | 81,125 | 1,227,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Award / grant | 15,271 | 547,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Award / grant | 27,487 | 575,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Moura Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 16,262 | 287,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Award / grant | 764 | 37,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Award / grant | 1,835 | 39,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Moura Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 4,337 | 270,955 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Garateix Ernie J | director | Withheld for tax | 40,634 | 1,145,172 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,112 | 532,313 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Moura Timothy | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,516 | 266,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,635 | 171,371 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Withheld for tax | 2,112 | 36,927 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Apostolou Panagiotis | director | Award / grant | 2,550 | 167,269 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Barlas Irini | director | Award / grant | 2,550 | 68,319 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Berset Mark S | director | Award / grant | 2,550 | 276,469 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Vattamattam Joseph | director | Award / grant | 2,550 | 61,060 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | WHITING PAUL L | director | Award / grant | 2,550 | 84,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | WIDDICOMBE RICHARD A | director | Award / grant | 2,550 | 699,047 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Award / grant | 1,263 | 35,251 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Award / grant | 3,788 | 39,039 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Award / grant | 27,744 | 560,736 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Lusk Kirk | officer | Award / grant | 52,020 | 612,756 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Moura Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 8,207 | 249,871 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Moura Timothy | officer | Award / grant | 26,263 | 276,134 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Award / grant | 6,761 | 169,961 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Binnun Sharon | officer | Award / grant | 27,045 | 197,006 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.