HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.21 · now $42.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HRMY has typically landed between $33.76 and $50.98 — a range of −20.0% to +20.8% from the issuance price $42.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,505 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-192026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.756.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HRMY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.76worst · -20.0%$50.98best · +20.8%
  • now $42.21 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.57 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.68$46.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.76$50.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,505 windows spanning 2020-08-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-09-22−45.6%−45.6%+0.0%
2023-09-14−44.5%−44.5%+0.0%
2023-09-28−44.1%−44.1%+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-12+52.3%+0.0%+52.3%
2023-10-27+51.5%+0.0%+51.5%
2020-10-07+50.3%−0.2%+50.3%

1,505 overlapping windows · 2020-08-192026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
17%
−3.6%
n=6
Feb
33%
−5.2%
n=6
Mar
33%
−1.7%
n=6
Apr
17%
−4.6%
n=6
May
67%
+4.4%
n=6
Jun
67%
+1.9%
n=6
Jul
67%
+2.9%
n=6
Aug
83%
+6.9%
n=6
Sep
57%
−1.0%
n=7
Oct
67%
−0.6%
n=6
Nov
83%
+10.5%
n=6
Dec
50%
+2.9%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$43$262026-09-08: 3 insider sales, $1.2M — Budur Kumar …2026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $231K — Budur Kumar2026-01-26: 1 insider sale, $139K — Kapadia Sandip2026-01-15: 1 insider sale, $753K — Kapadia Sandip2025-12-12: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Dayno Jeffrey M. …2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $791K — Kapadia Sandip2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $120K — Kapadia Sandip2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $787K — Kapadia Sandip2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $787K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $120K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $1.8M2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $892K2026-09: 4 open-market sales, $1.5M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Budur Kumar — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Budur Kumar — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Budur Kumar — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Budur Kumar — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Kapadia Sandip — Sale on 2026-01-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kapadia Sandip — Sale on 2026-01-15, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Dayno Jeffrey M. — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Dayno Jeffrey M. — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Kapadia Sandip — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kapadia Sandip — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kapadia Sandip — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Budur KumarofficerSale22,954 @ $43.10$989K−63.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,115Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08Budur KumarofficerSale4,500 @ $42.25$190K−24.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,115Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08Budur KumarofficerSale1,000 @ $42.79$43K−7.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,115Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-04Budur KumarofficerSale5,500 @ $41.98$231K−22.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open18,615Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-01-26Kapadia SandipdirectorSale3,746 @ $37.15$139K−13.3% of holding−24.6%−11.8%24,521Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-15Kapadia SandipdirectorSale20,961 @ $35.92$753K−100.0% of holding+2.8%−15.8%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-12Dayno Jeffrey M.directorSale20,000 @ $40.11$802K−100.0% of holding−12.6%−27.2%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-12Dayno Jeffrey M.directorSale5,933 @ $40.11$238K−100.0% of holding−12.6%−27.2%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-05Kapadia SandipdirectorSale20,000 @ $39.54$791K−100.0% of holding−6.6%−22.5%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21Kapadia SandipdirectorSale3,427 @ $35.00$120K−100.0% of holding+7.3%−24.9%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Kapadia SandipdirectorSale21,573 @ $36.50$787K−100.0% of holding−15.0%−6.6%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-01Kapadia SandipdirectorSale6,247 @ $32.48$203K−89.4% of holding−7.5%−36.8%740Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01Kapadia SandipdirectorSale740 @ $33.12$25K−100.0% of holding−7.5%−36.8%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Dierks JeffreyofficerSale4,369 @ $32.61$142K−89.7% of holding+4.4%+5.0%500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Dierks JeffreyofficerSale500 @ $33.23$17K−100.0% of holding+4.4%+5.0%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-27Kapadia SandipdirectorSale1,775 @ $38.05$68K−100.0% of holding−11.7%−13.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27Dierks JeffreyofficerSale1,629 @ $38.02$62K−100.0% of holding−11.7%−13.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-24Dierks JeffreyofficerSale8,000 @ $36.94$296K−61.0% of holding−0.5%−11.3%5,125Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-24Dierks JeffreyofficerSale5,125 @ $37.87$194K−100.0% of holding−0.5%−11.3%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-21Kapadia SandipdirectorSale25,000 @ $40.18$1.0M−100.0% of holding−15.0%−13.8%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21Dayno Jeffrey M.directorSale19,293 @ $40.13$774K−100.0% of holding−15.0%−13.8%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21Dierks JeffreyofficerSale1,123 @ $40.00$45K−100.0% of holding−15.0%−13.8%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-16Dierks JeffreyofficerSale29,475 @ $37.41$1.1M−100.0% of holding−1.9%−15.4%0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-01-15Dierks JeffreyofficerSale10,507 @ $37.01$389K−100.0% of holding+2.7%−11.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-13Dierks JeffreyofficerSale7,180 @ $37.04$266K−100.0% of holding+0.0%−11.4%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

124 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Budur KumarofficerOption exercise12,20025,315Form 4
2026-09-08Budur KumarofficerOption exercise10,75436,069Form 4
2026-09-08Budur KumarofficerOption exercise10,75464,246Form 4
2026-09-08Budur KumarofficerOption exercise12,20030,300Form 4
2026-05-14Szyper Linda MdirectorAward / grant21,87221,872Form 4
2026-05-14Sabater Juan A.directorAward / grant21,87221,872Form 4
2026-05-14Graf R. MarkdirectorAward / grant21,87221,872Form 4
2026-05-14Philip Ron MdirectorAward / grant21,87221,872Form 4
2026-05-14Germano Geno JdirectorAward / grant21,23121,231Form 4
2026-05-14Sender GarydirectorAward / grant21,87221,872Form 4
2026-05-01Budur KumarofficerWithheld for tax8,88224,115Form 4
2026-05-01Budur KumarofficerOption exercise18,75037,500Form 4
2026-05-01Budur KumarofficerOption exercise18,75032,997Form 4
2026-04-14Reicin GlennofficerAward / grant164,309164,309Form 4
2026-04-07Zaeske Adam H.officerWithheld for tax3,1734,327Form 4
2026-04-07Zaeske Adam H.officerOption exercise7,5007,500Form 4
2026-04-02Ignelzi Troy A.directorAward / grant17,71017,710Form 4
2026-04-02Anastasiou PeterdirectorAward / grant212,241212,241Form 4
2026-01-25Dayno Jeffrey M.directorWithheld for tax5,6547,346Form 4
2026-01-25Kapadia SandipdirectorWithheld for tax2,5532,172Form 4
2026-01-25Budur KumarofficerWithheld for tax1,3721,290Form 4
2026-01-25Serafin AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,1261,474Form 4
2026-01-25Budur KumarofficerOption exercise2,6627,988Form 4
2026-01-25Kapadia SandipdirectorOption exercise4,7254,725Form 4
2026-01-25Dayno Jeffrey M.directorOption exercise13,00013,000Form 4
2026-01-25Budur KumarofficerOption exercise2,6622,662Form 4
2026-01-25Serafin AndrewofficerOption exercise2,6007,800Form 4
2026-01-25Serafin AndrewofficerOption exercise2,6002,600Form 4
2026-01-25Dayno Jeffrey M.directorOption exercise13,00039,000Form 4
2026-01-25Kapadia SandipdirectorOption exercise4,72514,175Form 4
2026-01-24Dayno Jeffrey M.directorWithheld for tax4,7855,715Form 4
2026-01-24Kapadia SandipdirectorWithheld for tax2,2391,574Form 4
2026-01-24Budur KumarofficerWithheld for tax1,1531,035Form 4
2026-01-24Serafin AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,1161,384Form 4
2026-01-24Budur KumarofficerOption exercise2,1884,175Form 4
2026-01-24Dayno Jeffrey M.directorOption exercise10,50010,500Form 4
2026-01-24Dayno Jeffrey M.directorOption exercise10,50021,000Form 4
2026-01-24Kapadia SandipdirectorOption exercise3,8133,813Form 4
2026-01-24Kapadia SandipdirectorOption exercise3,8137,625Form 4
2026-01-24Serafin AndrewofficerOption exercise2,5002,500Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.