Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.21 · now $42.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HRMY has typically landed between $33.76 and $50.98 — a range of −20.0% to +20.8% from the issuance price $42.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,505 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HRMY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $42.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $42.57 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.68–$46.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.76–$50.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-09-22 | −45.6% | −45.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | −44.5% | −44.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | −44.1% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-10-12 | +52.3% | +0.0% | +52.3% |
| 2023-10-27 | +51.5% | +0.0% | +51.5% |
| 2020-10-07 | +50.3% | −0.2% | +50.3% |
1,505 overlapping windows · 2020-08-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Budur Kumar | officer | Sale | 22,954 @ $43.10 | $989K | −63.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Budur Kumar | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $42.25 | $190K | −24.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Budur Kumar | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $42.79 | $43K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,115 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Budur Kumar | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $41.98 | $231K | −22.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,615 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 3,746 @ $37.15 | $139K | −13.3% of holding | −24.6% | −11.8% | 24,521 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 20,961 @ $35.92 | $753K | −100.0% of holding | +2.8% | −15.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $40.11 | $802K | −100.0% of holding | −12.6% | −27.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Sale | 5,933 @ $40.11 | $238K | −100.0% of holding | −12.6% | −27.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $39.54 | $791K | −100.0% of holding | −6.6% | −22.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 3,427 @ $35.00 | $120K | −100.0% of holding | +7.3% | −24.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 21,573 @ $36.50 | $787K | −100.0% of holding | −15.0% | −6.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 6,247 @ $32.48 | $203K | −89.4% of holding | −7.5% | −36.8% | 740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 740 @ $33.12 | $25K | −100.0% of holding | −7.5% | −36.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 4,369 @ $32.61 | $142K | −89.7% of holding | +4.4% | +5.0% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 500 @ $33.23 | $17K | −100.0% of holding | +4.4% | +5.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 1,775 @ $38.05 | $68K | −100.0% of holding | −11.7% | −13.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,629 @ $38.02 | $62K | −100.0% of holding | −11.7% | −13.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $36.94 | $296K | −61.0% of holding | −0.5% | −11.3% | 5,125 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 5,125 @ $37.87 | $194K | −100.0% of holding | −0.5% | −11.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $40.18 | $1.0M | −100.0% of holding | −15.0% | −13.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Sale | 19,293 @ $40.13 | $774K | −100.0% of holding | −15.0% | −13.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 1,123 @ $40.00 | $45K | −100.0% of holding | −15.0% | −13.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-16 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 29,475 @ $37.41 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | −1.9% | −15.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 10,507 @ $37.01 | $389K | −100.0% of holding | +2.7% | −11.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Dierks Jeffrey | officer | Sale | 7,180 @ $37.04 | $266K | −100.0% of holding | +0.0% | −11.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
124 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 12,200 | 25,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 10,754 | 36,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 10,754 | 64,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 12,200 | 30,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Szyper Linda M | director | Award / grant | 21,872 | 21,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sabater Juan A. | director | Award / grant | 21,872 | 21,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Graf R. Mark | director | Award / grant | 21,872 | 21,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Philip Ron M | director | Award / grant | 21,872 | 21,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Germano Geno J | director | Award / grant | 21,231 | 21,231 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Sender Gary | director | Award / grant | 21,872 | 21,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Budur Kumar | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,882 | 24,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 18,750 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 18,750 | 32,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Reicin Glenn | officer | Award / grant | 164,309 | 164,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Zaeske Adam H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,173 | 4,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Zaeske Adam H. | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Ignelzi Troy A. | director | Award / grant | 17,710 | 17,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Anastasiou Peter | director | Award / grant | 212,241 | 212,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Withheld for tax | 5,654 | 7,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Withheld for tax | 2,553 | 2,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Budur Kumar | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,372 | 1,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Serafin Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,126 | 1,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 2,662 | 7,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Option exercise | 4,725 | 4,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Option exercise | 13,000 | 13,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 2,662 | 2,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Serafin Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 2,600 | 7,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Serafin Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 2,600 | 2,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Option exercise | 13,000 | 39,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Option exercise | 4,725 | 14,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,785 | 5,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Withheld for tax | 2,239 | 1,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Budur Kumar | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,153 | 1,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Serafin Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,116 | 1,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Budur Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 2,188 | 4,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Option exercise | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Dayno Jeffrey M. | director | Option exercise | 10,500 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Option exercise | 3,813 | 3,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Kapadia Sandip | director | Option exercise | 3,813 | 7,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Serafin Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 2,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.