Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.78 · now $20.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HRL has typically landed between $18.50 and $22.71 — a range of −11.0% to +9.3% from the issuance price $20.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HRL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.67 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.87–$21.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.5–$22.71
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-01 | −23.6% | −23.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-02 | −22.8% | −23.2% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −21.9% | −21.9% | +1.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-27 | +26.5% | +0.0% | +26.5% |
| 2008-12-02 | +25.2% | +0.0% | +25.2% |
| 2026-05-15 | +24.9% | +0.0% | +25.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$29.29
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$20.78
- Analyst target · range $22.00–$25.00$23.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$20.78
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Sale | 20,200 @ $24.51 | $495K | −38.7% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,002 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Murano Elsa A | director | Sale | 13,400 @ $24.00 | $322K | −14.0% of holding | −0.6% | −3.7% | 82,088 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-27 | Murano Elsa A | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $30.40 | $137K | −4.5% of holding | +1.2% | −34.3% | 95,488 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | LYKKEN STEVEN J | officer | Purchase | 4,904 @ $32.47 | $159K | +223.4% of holding | −3.5% | −2.4% | 7,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
128 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Bonifant William W. | officer | Award / grant | 5,734 | 17,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Bonifant William W. | officer | Award / grant | 34,900 | 34,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Borrelli Domenic | officer | Award / grant | 8,341 | 8,341 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Borrelli Domenic | officer | Award / grant | 50,800 | 50,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Aakre D Scott | director | Withheld for tax | 1,722 | 47,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Bonifant William W. | officer | Award / grant | 87,700 | 87,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Bonifant William W. | officer | Award / grant | 12,043 | 12,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Newlands William A | director | Award / grant | 6,722 | 58,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | White Steven Andrew | director | Award / grant | 2,666 | 42,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Award / grant | 2,666 | 77,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Policinski Christopher J. | director | Award / grant | 2,492 | 124,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Schoneman Debbra L. | director | Award / grant | 1,333 | 15,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 5,405 | 52,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | White Steven Andrew | director | Gift | 5,405 | 39,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Murano Elsa A | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 88,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Newlands William A | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 51,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Ghingo John F | director | Award / grant | 32,707 | 64,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Ghingo John F | director | Award / grant | 201,000 | 201,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Zechmeister Michael Paul | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 21,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Bhojwani Gary C. | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 74,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | White Steven Andrew | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 44,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | LACY STEPHEN M | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 94,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | SMITH SALLY J | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 86,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Aakre D Scott | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 49,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Schoneman Debbra L. | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 14,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Policinski Christopher J. | director | Award / grant | 6,541 | 121,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Aakre D Scott | director | Award / grant | 5,558 | 43,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Aakre D Scott | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 36,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | ETTINGER JEFFREY M | director | Award / grant | 436,300 | 436,300 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Losness-Larson Katherine M | officer | Award / grant | 8,464 | 32,662 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Batcheler Colleen | director | Award / grant | 21,160 | 49,603 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Batcheler Colleen | director | Award / grant | 136,200 | 136,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Kuehneman Paul R | officer | Award / grant | 12,696 | 27,816 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Kuehneman Paul R | officer | Award / grant | 34,100 | 34,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Lilly Pierre M | officer | Award / grant | 27,200 | 27,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Lilly Pierre M | officer | Award / grant | 4,232 | 15,796 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Lilly Pierre M | officer | Award / grant | 4,232 | 20,028 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Losness-Larson Katherine M | officer | Award / grant | 54,500 | 54,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Weber David F | officer | Award / grant | 5,925 | 23,218 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-09 | Weber David F | officer | Award / grant | 38,100 | 38,100 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-11 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-25 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-22 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-07-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-12-05 | 2024-11-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2024-08-21 | 2023-07-14 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | sale | 2024-08-21 | 2023-12-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-01 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.