HRB · TickerCove

HRBH&R Block, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $45.11 · now $45.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HRB has typically landed between $39.92 and $52.62 — a range of −11.5% to +16.7% from the issuance price $45.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($45.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$45.11 · 66% of range

$27.66 low$54.18 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 10.7%

−11.5%worst (p90)+16.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

5 buys · 5 sells · 5 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HRB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $45.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $45.11 (+0.0%)
typical $45.49 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $43.09–$47.9
90% range $39.92–$52.62

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−46.4%	−46.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−43.9%	−43.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-24	−42.7%	−45.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-05-10	+51.5%	+0.0%	+53.7%
2026-06-25	+51.4%	+0.0%	+51.4%
2022-05-09	+47.8%	−2.1%	+50.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+0.8%

n=18

Feb

37%

−1.2%

n=19

Mar

68%

+1.4%

n=19

Apr

53%

−0.2%

n=19

May

63%

+3.7%

n=19

Jun

53%

+2.0%

n=19

Jul

63%

+3.6%

n=19

Aug

63%

+1.7%

n=19

Sep

47%

−0.1%

n=19

Oct

44%

−0.4%

n=18

Nov

61%

+1.9%

n=18

Dec

61%

+0.2%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-19	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Sale	128,818 @ $44.54	$5.7M	−13.0% of holding	−3.7%	−23.6%	861,313	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Sale	176,449 @ $46.46	$8.2M	−16.3% of holding	−4.6%	−25.8%	906,313	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-16	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Sale	53,810 @ $63.28	$3.4M	−6.0% of holding	−21.6%	−43.8%	844,790	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Redler Dara S	officer	Withheld for tax	12,219	58,236	Form 4
2026-08-31	Darling Mark J.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,129	24,288	Form 4
2026-08-31	Manuel Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	3,736	31,422	Form 4
2026-08-31	Mason Tiffany L	officer	Withheld for tax	3,510	32,870	Form 4
2026-08-31	Campbell Curtis A	director	Withheld for tax	2,833	89,283	Form 4
2026-08-31	Wasleski April M.	officer	Withheld for tax	413	6,117	Form 4
2026-08-31	Manuel Scott	officer	Award / grant	10,843	35,158	Form 4
2026-08-31	Mason Tiffany L	officer	Award / grant	13,553	36,380	Form 4
2026-08-31	Redler Dara S	officer	Award / grant	9,826	70,455	Form 4
2026-08-31	Campbell Curtis A	director	Award / grant	49,129	92,116	Form 4
2026-08-31	Wasleski April M.	officer	Award / grant	1,426	6,530	Form 4
2026-08-31	Darling Mark J.	officer	Award / grant	6,099	28,417	Form 4
2026-08-12	Redler Dara S	officer	Award / grant	17,271	60,629	Form 4
2026-08-12	Darling Mark J.	officer	Award / grant	4,429	22,318	Form 4
2026-07-08	Campbell Curtis A	director	Withheld for tax	11	42,987	Form 4
2026-06-03	Campbell Curtis A	director	Withheld for tax	1,016	42,558	Form 4
2026-01-22	Plaines Stephanie	director	Award / grant	3,727	3,727	Form 4
2026-01-22	Charnaux Christian H.	director	Award / grant	3,727	3,727	Form 4
2026-01-22	Breig Geralyn	director	Award / grant	3,727	3,727	Form 4
2026-01-05	Darling Mark J.	officer	Award / grant	1,481	17,528	Form 4
2026-01-05	Campbell Curtis A	director	Award / grant	17,216	42,822	Form 4
2025-11-19	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Option exercise	128,818	1,035,131	Form 4
2025-11-19	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Gift	45,000	990,131	Form 4
2025-11-19	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Option exercise	128,818	0	Form 4
2025-11-12	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Option exercise	145,087	1,082,762	Form 4
2025-11-12	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Option exercise	145,087	128,818	Form 4
2025-11-05	Gupta Anuradha	director	Award / grant	3,927	43,280	Form 4
2025-11-05	Cohan Sean	director	Award / grant	3,927	28,428	Form 4
2025-11-05	Winter Matthew E	director	Award / grant	3,927	59,083	Form 4
2025-11-05	REICH VICTORIA	director	Award / grant	3,927	116,362	Form 4
2025-11-05	Mends Mia	director	Award / grant	3,927	28,428	Form 4
2025-11-05	Johnson Richard A	director	Award / grant	10,209	91,277	Form 4
2025-11-05	Gerard Robert A	director	Award / grant	3,927	316,262	Form 4
2025-11-01	Wasleski April M.	officer	Award / grant	3,293	4,934	Form 4
2025-08-31	Jones Jeffrey J II	director	Withheld for tax	70,257	935,279	Form 4
2025-08-31	Redler Dara S	officer	Withheld for tax	10,555	41,885	Form 4
2025-08-31	Logerwell Kellie J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,947	22,126	Form 4
2025-08-31	Manuel Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	1,307	23,386	Form 4
2025-08-31	Campbell Curtis A	director	Withheld for tax	1,114	25,423	Form 4
2025-08-31	Mason Tiffany L	officer	Withheld for tax	1,071	21,944	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Valerie Hoyle	House	sale	2025-10-10	2025-09-23	$1–15K
Valerie Hoyle	House	purchase	2025-09-12	2024-10-29	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	sale	2020-05-13	2020-04-29	$1–15K
Dean Phillips	House	sale	2020-05-07	2020-04-02	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2020-04-16	2020-03-18	$1–15K
Dean Phillips	House	purchase	2020-03-12	2020-02-28	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2019-03-08	2019-02-20	$1–15K
Josh Gottheimer	House	sale	2018-08-13	2017-02-21	$1–15K
Josh Gottheimer	House	purchase	2018-08-13	2017-01-03	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2018-08-10	2018-07-24	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i