Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.50 · now $18.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HR has typically landed between $16.33 and $20.64 — a range of −11.7% to +11.6% from the issuance price $18.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.54 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.69–$19.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.33–$20.64
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-30 | −38.2% | −38.2% | +2.3% |
| 2020-02-21 | −34.4% | −34.4% | +0.6% |
| 2008-11-04 | −32.7% | −38.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-01 | +54.9% | +0.0% | +54.9% |
| 2008-11-20 | +38.3% | −4.7% | +45.5% |
| 2022-07-20 | +37.5% | +0.0% | +38.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Hull Robert E | officer | Sale | 21,000 @ $19.11 | $401K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 276,338 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-23 | Callaway Amanda L | officer | Sale | 25,767 @ $20.37 | $525K | −19.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,954 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Bohjalian Thomas N | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $18.09 | $181K | +13.2% of holding | −2.2% | −8.6% | 85,520 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Gabbay Daniel | officer | Purchase | 10 @ $18.74 | $187 | ownership Δ n/a | −3.4% | −7.1% | 10 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Wilson Julie F. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.00 | $270K | −11.7% of holding | −5.8% | −0.6% | 113,419 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | Bohjalian Thomas N | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $16.46 | $165K | +15.3% of holding | +9.7% | +1.7% | 75,520 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | Bohjalian Thomas N | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $14.71 | $37K | +4.6% of holding | −1.5% | +11.3% | 56,502 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-19 | WOOD DONALD C | director | Purchase | 5,900 @ $16.86 | $99K | ownership Δ n/a | −4.3% | −7.3% | 5,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Hull Robert E | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $17.48 | $140K | −4.4% of holding | −3.6% | −8.3% | 173,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-17 | Hull Robert E | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $17.49 | $35K | −1.2% of holding | −3.6% | −8.3% | 171,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | Lyle Peter F SR | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $17.21 | $172K | +60.3% of holding | −2.6% | −8.7% | 26,576 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | HENRY DAVID | director | Award / grant | 6,683 | 15,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | RUFRANO GLENN J | director | Award / grant | 6,683 | 25,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | MOORE CONSTANCE B | director | Award / grant | 6,683 | 91,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | WOOD DONALD C | director | Award / grant | 6,683 | 21,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Bohjalian Thomas N | director | Award / grant | 6,683 | 92,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-14 | Scott Peter A | officer | Withheld for tax | 36,029 | 556,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 736 | 198,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Scott Peter A | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,820 | 592,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Hull Robert E | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,097 | 297,338 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Loope Andrew Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,650 | 184,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,905 | 199,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Callaway Amanda L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,623 | 135,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Scott Peter A | officer | Award / grant | 155,867 | 603,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Callaway Amanda L | officer | Award / grant | 34,689 | 140,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Hull Robert E | officer | Award / grant | 33,859 | 307,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Award / grant | 32,788 | 203,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Loope Andrew Edward | officer | Award / grant | 32,588 | 191,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Gabbay Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 32,107 | 191,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Hull Robert E | officer | Award / grant | 5,959 | 5,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Hull Robert E | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,915 | 301,435 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Loope Andrew Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,924 | 188,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Callaway Amanda L | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,769 | 137,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 968 | 202,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Gabbay Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 159,051 | 159,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Hull Robert E | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,244 | 273,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Loope Andrew Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,275 | 158,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Callaway Amanda L | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,122 | 105,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,901 | 170,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Helfrich Austen B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 664 | 98,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Scott Peter A | officer | Award / grant | 6,640 | 447,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Award / grant | 5,844 | 172,226 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Hull Robert E | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,156 | 278,735 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 444 | 166,382 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-13 | Hull Robert E | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,682 | 279,891 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-13 | Loope Andrew Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,686 | 160,747 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-13 | Callaway Amanda L | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,481 | 107,546 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-13 | Crowley Ryan E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 908 | 166,826 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Hull Robert E | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,614 | 285,573 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Callaway Amanda L | officer | Withheld for tax | 992 | 110,027 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-08 | Wilson Julie F. | officer | Award / grant | 106,823 | 106,823 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.