Issued 2026-09-25 at $15.59 · now $15.59 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, HQ has typically landed between $7.83 and $47.22 — a range of −49.8% to +202.9% from the issuance price $15.59.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
128 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-02-23 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($15.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $15.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.59 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.05 (+2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.26–$19.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.83–$47.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-22 | −61.9% | −61.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-23 | −58.8% | −58.8% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-24 | −58.8% | −58.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-19 | +241.9% | −10.9% | +241.9% |
| 2026-05-20 | +208.0% | −7.7% | +254.2% |
| 2026-05-18 | +181.7% | −11.9% | +181.7% |
128 overlapping windows · 2026-02-23 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Lambert Danielle | director | Purchase | 84,602 @ $11.82 | $1000K | ownership Δ n/a | −10.7% | −3.4% | 84,602 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
32 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fitzsimons Joseph Francis | director | Disposition | 3,438 | 10,883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Disposition | 2,991 | 2,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Gould Greg | officer | Disposition | 1,272 | 2,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Fitzsimons Catherine Michele | officer | Disposition | 1,122 | 1,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Fitzsimons Joseph Francis | director | Option exercise | 14,321 | 214,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Gould Greg | officer | Option exercise | 3,437 | 51,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Option exercise | 5,728 | 5,728 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Option exercise | 5,728 | 85,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Fitzsimons Catherine Michele | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 2,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Fitzsimons Catherine Michele | officer | Option exercise | 2,148 | 32,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Fitzsimons Joseph Francis | director | Option exercise | 14,321 | 14,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Gould Greg | officer | Option exercise | 3,437 | 3,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 3,600 | 3,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Chew Qian Yi Amanda | officer | Award / grant | 17,857 | 17,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gould Greg | officer | Award / grant | 54,995 | 54,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fitzsimons Joseph Francis | director | Award / grant | 229,148 | 229,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 91,659 | 91,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fitzsimons Catherine Michele | officer | Award / grant | 34,372 | 34,372 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | You Harry L. | director | Award / grant | 2,884,660 | 2,884,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | You Harry L. | director | Award / grant | 1,163,484 | 1,163,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | You Harry L. | director | Award / grant | 2,884,660 | 2,884,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Fitzsimons Joseph Francis | director | Award / grant | 19,744,585 | 19,744,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gould Greg | officer | Award / grant | 285,300 | 285,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gould Greg | officer | Award / grant | 285,300 | 285,300 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Fitzsimons Joseph Francis | director | Award / grant | 19,744,585 | 19,744,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Tan Si-Hui | officer | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | You Harry L. | director | Award / grant | 1,163,484 | 1,163,484 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.