HPQHP Inc.Technology · Computer Hardwareas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.70 · now $32.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HPQ has typically landed between $28.04 and $38.08 — a range of −14.3% to +16.4% from the issuance price $32.70.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HPQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$28.04worst · -14.3%$38.08best · +16.4%
  • now $32.7 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.96–$35.04
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.04–$38.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−40.5%−40.5%+5.0%
2020-02-21−39.1%−41.7%+2.8%
2020-02-20−37.8%−41.5%+3.1%
3 best
2026-04-30+40.7%−0.4%+40.7%
2013-02-15+38.3%−0.6%+38.3%
2024-04-30+36.6%−1.2%+36.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$23.5B
market cap
$2.71
EPS (TTM)
9.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-26
next earnings
Revenue$55.3B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-730.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-31.45
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $32.70$13.10$98.59
  • DCF (intrinsic)$37.77
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$92.70
  • Analyst target · range $19.00–$22.00$19.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$32.70

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
47%
+1.4%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.7%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.3%
n=19
May
47%
+2.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Jul
84%
+4.0%
n=19
Aug
53%
−2.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
61%
+4.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$35$182026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $631K — McQuarrie David P.2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $294K — McQuarrie David P.2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $293K — McQuarrie David P.2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $294K — McQuarrie David P.2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $260K — McQuarrie David P.2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $834K — Citrino Mary Anne2025-12-26: 1 insider sale, $773K — Patel Ketan M2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $415K — Olson Anneliese2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — LORES ENRIQUE2025-10-29: 1 insider sale, $506K — Olson Anneliese2025-09-29: 1 insider sale, $920K — LORES ENRIQUE2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $920K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $506K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $834K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $260K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $294K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer McQuarrie David P. — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer McQuarrie David P. — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McQuarrie David P. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McQuarrie David P. — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McQuarrie David P. — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Citrino Mary Anne — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Patel Ketan M — Sale on 2025-12-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Olson Anneliese — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LORES ENRIQUE — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Olson Anneliese — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed same daydirector LORES ENRIQUE — Sale on 2025-09-29, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07McQuarrie David P.officerSale21,048 @ $29.98$631K−34.7% of holding+3.7%not yet — horizon still open39,580Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-04McQuarrie David P.officerSale10,524 @ $27.98$294K−14.8% of holding+11.8%not yet — horizon still open60,628Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03McQuarrie David P.officerSale10,524 @ $27.88$293K−12.9% of holding+14.9%not yet — horizon still open71,152Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28McQuarrie David P.officerSale10,524 @ $27.98$294K−11.4% of holding+4.5%not yet — horizon still open81,676Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12McQuarrie David P.officerSale10,524 @ $24.68$260K−10.2% of holding−7.9%not yet — horizon still open92,200Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11Citrino Mary AnnedirectorSale45,172 @ $18.47$834K−57.6% of holding−1.8%+66.8%33,251Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-26Patel Ketan MofficerSale33,321 @ $23.19$773K−49.1% of holding−18.9%−11.8%34,572Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-09Olson AnneliesedirectorSale16,726 @ $24.83$415K−99.0% of holding−16.3%−7.4%169Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05LORES ENRIQUEdirectorSale41,922 @ $26.00$1.1M−22.9% of holding−18.5%−9.1%141,456Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-29Olson AnneliesedirectorSale18,154 @ $27.88$506K−99.1% of holding−11.3%−28.1%169Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-29LORES ENRIQUEdirectorSale34,282 @ $26.85$920K−100.0% of holding+0.9%−25.1%3Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-27Olson AnneliesedirectorSale21,545 @ $28.49$614K−99.2% of holding−8.5%−22.1%169Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-24Liebman StephanieofficerSale15,646 @ $29.00$454K−100.0% of holding−8.3%−15.6%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03LORES ENRIQUEdirectorSale54,987 @ $31.08$1.7M−61.6% of holding−2.9%−11.9%34,285Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-30Liebman StephanieofficerSale11,000 @ $32.50$358K−63.7% of holding−2.7%−25.5%6,277Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13Ludgate Kristen MdirectorSale74,356 @ $34.43$2.6M−57.0% of holding−4.6%−28.0%56,169Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-11CHO ALEXdirectorSale40,287 @ $34.80$1.4M−38.4% of holding−1.6%−27.3%64,676Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-09LORES ENRIQUEdirectorSale137,094 @ $36.45$5.0M−60.6% of holding−4.5%−30.5%89,272Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

238 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Francisco Ma. FatimadirectorGift12,17612,176Form 4
2026-09-01Francisco Ma. FatimadirectorGift12,1760Form 4
2026-08-31Francisco Ma. FatimadirectorGift12,1760Form 4
2026-08-31Francisco Ma. FatimadirectorGift12,17612,176Form 4
2026-08-05PARKHILL KAREN LdirectorWithheld for tax69,173199,707Form 4
2026-08-05PARKHILL KAREN LdirectorOption exercise166,746268,880Form 4
2026-08-05PARKHILL KAREN LdirectorOption exercise166,746152,672Form 4
2026-07-14Grewal ManpreetofficerWithheld for tax5,51317,124Form 4
2026-07-14Grewal ManpreetofficerOption exercise22,63722,637Form 4
2026-07-14Grewal ManpreetofficerOption exercise22,63745,272Form 4
2026-07-14Grewal ManpreetofficerOption exercise22,63745,272Form 4
2026-04-16Citrino Mary AnnedirectorAward / grant6,0886,088Form 4
2026-04-16Bergh Charles VdirectorAward / grant6,0886,088Form 4
2026-04-16CLEMMER RICHARD LdirectorAward / grant6,0886,088Form 4
2026-04-16Francisco Ma. FatimadirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16BURNS STEPHANIEdirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16Citrino Mary AnnedirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16Rucker Kim K.W.directorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16Pettiti GianlucadirectorAward / grant12,17621,884Form 4
2026-04-16Yoon SongyeedirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16Bergh Charles VdirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16Meline David WdirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16Miscik Judith AdirectorAward / grant12,17650,094Form 4
2026-04-16BROWN-PHILPOT STACYdirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-16CLEMMER RICHARD LdirectorAward / grant12,17612,176Form 4
2026-04-01Bergh Charles VdirectorOption exercise9,88194,515Form 4
2026-04-01Bergh Charles VdirectorOption exercise9,8810Form 4
2026-04-01Bergh Charles VdirectorOption exercise9,8810Form 4
2026-03-25Bergh Charles VdirectorOption exercise48,54484,634Form 4
2026-03-25Bergh Charles VdirectorOption exercise48,5440Form 4
2026-03-11Citrino Mary AnnedirectorOption exercise72,81678,423Form 4
2026-03-11Citrino Mary AnnedirectorOption exercise72,8160Form 4
2026-03-02Jacobs Julie MofficerAward / grant105,152105,152Form 4
2026-03-02PARKHILL KAREN LdirectorAward / grant210,305210,305Form 4
2026-03-02Patel Ketan MofficerAward / grant157,729157,729Form 4
2026-03-02McQuarrie David P.officerAward / grant157,729157,729Form 4
2026-03-02Jacobs Julie MofficerAward / grant105,152105,152Form 4
2026-03-02PARKHILL KAREN LdirectorAward / grant210,305210,305Form 4
2026-03-02McQuarrie David P.officerAward / grant157,729157,729Form 4
2026-03-02Olson AnneliesedirectorAward / grant157,729157,729Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-04-282025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2025-02-082025-01-28$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.