Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.42 · now $11.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HPP has typically landed between $8.43 and $14.38 — a range of −26.2% to +25.9% from the issuance price $11.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,061 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-06-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HPP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.75 (-5.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.62–$11.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.43–$14.38
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −54.7% | −54.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −52.0% | −52.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-08 | +95.8% | −2.2% | +95.8% |
| 2026-04-13 | +95.4% | +0.0% | +95.4% |
| 2026-04-10 | +89.5% | +0.0% | +96.8% |
4,061 overlapping windows · 2010-06-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | BORTZ JON E | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $13.40 | $335K | +240.5% of holding | −9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-30 | FERGUSON T RITSON | director | Purchase | 16,000 @ $5.97 | $96K | +533.9% of holding | +38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,997 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | GLASER JONATHAN M | director | Purchase | 448,430 @ $2.23 | $1000K | +203.6% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 668,699 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Purchase | 224,215 @ $2.23 | $500K | +46.0% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 711,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | SHOLEM BARRY A | director | Purchase | 224,215 @ $2.23 | $500K | +127.0% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 400,743 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | ANTENUCCI TED R | director | Purchase | 89,686 @ $2.23 | $200K | +54.3% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 254,934 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | HARRIS ROBERT L II | director | Purchase | 44,843 @ $2.23 | $100K | +34.5% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 174,731 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Suazo Arthur X. | officer | Purchase | 22,421 @ $2.23 | $50K | +24.2% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 115,123 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | LAMMAS MARK T | officer | Purchase | 22,421 @ $2.23 | $50K | +18.8% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 141,578 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Wattula Andy | officer | Purchase | 11,210 @ $2.23 | $25K | +20.1% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 66,862 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Gordon Drew | officer | Purchase | 11,210 @ $2.23 | $25K | +10.3% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 119,988 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Tidwell Kay Lee | director | Purchase | 11,210 @ $2.23 | $25K | +19.7% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 68,211 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Diramerian Harout Krikor | officer | Purchase | 11,210 @ $2.23 | $25K | +21.1% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 64,456 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Jaffe Steven M. | officer | Purchase | 11,210 @ $2.23 | $25K | +30.7% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 47,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Burnough Erinn | director | Purchase | 8,968 @ $2.23 | $20K | +9.0% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 109,051 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Barton Christopher James | officer | Purchase | 8,968 @ $2.23 | $20K | +14.9% of holding | +0.4% | −43.3% | 69,326 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $2.87 | $144K | +11.4% of holding | +17.0% | +0.1% | 487,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | ANTENUCCI TED R | director | Award / grant | 7,462 | 43,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BORTZ JON E | director | Award / grant | 7,462 | 10,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | FERGUSON T RITSON | director | Award / grant | 7,462 | 26,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | HARRIS ROBERT L II | director | Award / grant | 7,462 | 32,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | SHOLEM BARRY A | director | Award / grant | 7,462 | 64,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Barton Christopher James | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 91,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | LAMMAS MARK T | officer | Award / grant | 34,018 | 294,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wattula Andy | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 100,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Gordon Drew | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 78,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Award / grant | 77,757 | 655,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Diramerian Harout Krikor | officer | Award / grant | 12,149 | 96,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Barton Christopher James | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 91,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Tidwell Kay Lee | director | Award / grant | 9,719 | 94,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Suazo Arthur X. | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 150,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Diramerian Harout Krikor | officer | Award / grant | 12,149 | 96,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Award / grant | 77,757 | 655,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wattula Andy | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 100,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Gordon Drew | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 78,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Shimoda Sanford Dale | officer | Award / grant | 7,775 | 64,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | LAMMAS MARK T | officer | Award / grant | 34,018 | 294,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Shimoda Sanford Dale | officer | Award / grant | 7,775 | 64,596 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Suazo Arthur X. | officer | Award / grant | 9,719 | 150,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Tidwell Kay Lee | director | Award / grant | 9,719 | 94,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Suazo Arthur X. | officer | Award / grant | 31,746 | 140,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Wattula Andy | officer | Award / grant | 25,396 | 90,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Diramerian Harout Krikor | officer | Award / grant | 29,620 | 84,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Diramerian Harout Krikor | officer | Award / grant | 14,810 | 14,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | LAMMAS MARK T | officer | Award / grant | 87,301 | 260,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | LAMMAS MARK T | officer | Award / grant | 43,650 | 43,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Wattula Andy | officer | Award / grant | 25,396 | 90,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Diramerian Harout Krikor | officer | Award / grant | 29,620 | 84,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Diramerian Harout Krikor | officer | Award / grant | 14,810 | 14,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Suazo Arthur X. | officer | Award / grant | 31,746 | 140,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Award / grant | 190,476 | 577,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Award / grant | 95,238 | 95,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | LAMMAS MARK T | officer | Award / grant | 87,301 | 260,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | LAMMAS MARK T | officer | Award / grant | 43,650 | 43,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Award / grant | 190,476 | 577,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | COLEMAN VICTOR J | director | Award / grant | 95,238 | 95,238 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | BORTZ JON E | director | Award / grant | 2,932 | 2,932 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.