HPE · TickerCove

HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyTechnology · Communication Equipmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.68 · now $56.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HPE has typically landed between $48.51 and $68.52 — a range of −14.4% to +20.9% from the issuance price $56.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,722 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-10-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$56.68 · 87% of range

$19.71 low$62.09 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 14.1%

−14.4%worst (p90)+20.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

2 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

5 buys · 9 sells · 5 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HPE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $56.68 (+0.0%)
typical $57.61 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $53.61–$61.61
90% range $48.51–$68.52

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,722 windows spanning 2015-10-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−44.2%	−44.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−42.5%	−42.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−42.1%	−42.1%	+0.3%
3 best
2026-05-01	+96.5%	+0.0%	+96.5%
2026-05-04	+92.1%	+0.0%	+95.6%
2026-05-05	+78.7%	−1.1%	+86.9%

2,722 overlapping windows · 2015-10-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$63.2B

market cap

$1.05

EPS (TTM)

45.4

P/E (TTM)

2026-09-02

next earnings

Revenue$34.3B

'20'25

Net income$57M

'20'25

Free cash flow$627M

'20'25

Net margin · by yr0.2%

'20'25

ROE · by yr0.2%

'20'25

Debt / equity · by yr0.98

'20'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$9.89
Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$35.92
Analyst target · range $62.00–$80.00$69.00
Current price · last close 2026-09-16$56.68

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−0.3%

n=11

Feb

36%

+1.1%

n=11

Mar

64%

+2.7%

n=11

Apr

55%

+0.7%

n=11

May

64%

+4.2%

n=11

Jun

55%

+3.2%

n=11

Jul

73%

+3.2%

n=11

Aug

55%

+2.0%

n=11

Sep

64%

+2.6%

n=11

Oct

30%

−0.7%

n=10

Nov

64%

+4.9%

n=11

Dec

73%

+1.9%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	REINER GARY M	director	Sale	17,000 @ $56.91	$967K	−20.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	65,072	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-11	Neri Antonio F	director	Sale	250,000 @ $60.44	$15.1M	−14.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,432,393	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-22	Karros Kirt P	director	Sale	23,675 @ $47.02	$1.1M	−100.0% of holding	+7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-22	Karros Kirt P	director	Sale	18,785 @ $48.50	$911K	−100.0% of holding	−1.0%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03	REINER GARY M	director	Sale	20,000 @ $54.77	$1.1M	−19.4% of holding	−21.4%	not yet — horizon still open	82,941	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05	MYERS MARIE	director	Sale	93,583 @ $30.01	$2.8M	−31.4% of holding	+74.1%	not yet — horizon still open	204,754	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05	Mayer Bethany	director	Sale	6,482 @ $29.10	$189K	−44.7% of holding	+74.1%	not yet — horizon still open	8,018	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-21	RUSSO FIDELMA	director	Sale	17,001 @ $27.97	$476K	−100.0% of holding	+12.2%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-20	MacDonald Neil B	officer	Sale	24,251 @ $27.01	$655K	−42.9% of holding	+13.8%	not yet — horizon still open	32,243	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17	Neri Antonio F	director	Sale	150,000 @ $26.50	$4.0M	−8.2% of holding	+20.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,687,329	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-25	Neri Antonio F	director	Sale	179,834 @ $24.79	$4.5M	−8.6% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,921,927	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25	MacDonald Neil B	officer	Sale	105,513 @ $25.03	$2.6M	−62.4% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	63,633	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25	Neri Antonio F	director	Sale	84,598 @ $26.00	$2.2M	−4.4% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,837,329	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25	RUSSO FIDELMA	director	Sale	17,001 @ $25.95	$441K	−50.0% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	17,001	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25	RUSSO FIDELMA	director	Sale	17,000 @ $24.21	$412K	−33.3% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	34,002	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-25	MacDonald Neil B	officer	Sale	7,139 @ $26.00	$186K	−11.2% of holding	+0.5%	not yet — horizon still open	56,494	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-29	Neri Antonio F	director	Sale	26,457 @ $24.49	$648K	−1.2% of holding	−10.4%	+73.5%	2,101,761	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-24	Karros Kirt P	director	Sale	36,460 @ $24.61	$897K	−66.0% of holding	−12.3%	+75.5%	18,785	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-12-11	RUSSO FIDELMA	director	Sale	126,512 @ $24.61	$3.1M	−71.3% of holding	−9.6%	+92.2%	51,002	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	Culloty Maeve C	officer	Sale	35,958 @ $24.66	$887K	−100.0% of holding	−9.6%	+92.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	Cox Jeremy	officer	Sale	13,463 @ $24.68	$332K	−100.0% of holding	−9.6%	+92.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-10	SCHULTZ JOHN F	director	Sale	148,501 @ $24.99	$3.7M	−37.4% of holding	−13.4%	+84.6%	248,091	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10	Cox Jeremy	officer	Sale	13,442 @ $24.75	$333K	−50.0% of holding	−13.4%	+84.6%	13,463	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09	Cox Jeremy	officer	Sale	50,061 @ $23.70	$1.2M	−65.0% of holding	−11.9%	+82.7%	26,905	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-09	SCHULTZ JOHN F	director	Sale	21,007 @ $23.70	$498K	−5.0% of holding	−11.9%	+82.7%	396,592	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08	SCHULTZ JOHN F	director	Sale	84,676 @ $23.15	$2.0M	−20.0% of holding	−8.3%	+86.4%	338,685	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08	Hobby Jean M.	director	Sale	29,000 @ $23.79	$690K	−47.3% of holding	−8.3%	+86.4%	32,279	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

273 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-24	GOULDEN DAVID I	director	Award / grant	3,495	3,495	Form 4
2026-07-24	GOULDEN DAVID I	director	Award / grant	3,495	3,495	Form 4
2026-07-20	Karros Kirt P	director	Option exercise	40,282	40,282	Form 4
2026-07-20	Karros Kirt P	director	Withheld for tax	16,607	23,675	Form 4
2026-07-20	Karros Kirt P	director	Option exercise	40,282	80,563	Form 4
2026-07-20	Karros Kirt P	director	Option exercise	40,282	80,563	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	93	33,151	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	63	21,156	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	63	21,156	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	252	85,059	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	252	85,059	Form 4
2026-07-15	REINER GARY M	director	Award / grant	26	8,776	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	93	33,151	Form 4
2026-07-15	REINER GARY M	director	Award / grant	26	8,776	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	152	52,543	Form 4
2026-07-15	Karros Kirt P	director	Award / grant	152	52,543	Form 4
2026-07-07	rahim rami	director	Gift	565,893	0	Form 4
2026-07-07	rahim rami	director	Gift	565,893	909,589	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	394,379	761,427	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	308,311	333,512	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	260,290	496,100	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Withheld for tax	195,534	565,893	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Withheld for tax	152,861	180,651	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Withheld for tax	129,052	367,048	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	109,401	290,052	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Withheld for tax	54,242	235,810	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	308,311	0	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	109,401	0	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	308,311	0	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	260,290	0	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	260,290	0	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	394,379	0	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	394,379	0	Form 4
2026-07-03	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	109,401	0	Form 4
2026-07-02	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	49,984	49,984	Form 4
2026-07-02	rahim rami	director	Withheld for tax	24,783	25,201	Form 4
2026-07-02	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	49,984	99,965	Form 4
2026-07-02	rahim rami	director	Option exercise	49,984	99,965	Form 4
2026-06-30	RUSSO PATRICIA F	director	Award / grant	873	367,286	Form 4
2026-06-30	REINER GARY M	director	Award / grant	831	831	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Alan Armstrong	Senate	purchase	2026-07-21	2026-03-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-04-07	2026-03-10	$1–15K
Julia Letlow	House	purchase	2026-01-13	2025-01-24	$1–15K
Julia Letlow	House	sale	2026-01-13	2025-03-13	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-11-21	2025-10-31	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-11-21	2025-10-30	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-11-21	2025-10-30	$1–15K
Ritchie John Torres	House	sale	2025-08-20	2025-07-11	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-08-13	2025-06-17	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-06-10	2025-05-19	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-05-12	2025-04-23	$15–50K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2025-03-06	2025-02-19	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2025-02-06	2025-01-16	$15–50K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2024-09-06	2024-08-05	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i