HP · TickerCove

HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.66 · now $41.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HP has typically landed between $33.79 and $51.08 — a range of −18.9% to +22.6% from the issuance price $41.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$41.66 · 79% of range

$19.56 low$47.64 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.7%

typical move · IQR 18.2%

−18.9%worst (p90)+22.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

4 buys · 10 sells · 5 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $41.66 (+0.0%)
typical $42.35 (+1.7%)
middle 50% $38.55–$46.15
90% range $33.79–$51.08

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-19	−71.8%	−71.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−71.1%	−71.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−70.3%	−70.3%	+0.9%
3 best
2020-05-07	+81.1%	+0.0%	+81.1%
2020-05-06	+75.8%	+0.0%	+75.8%
2020-10-28	+69.6%	+0.0%	+72.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

61%

+5.2%

n=18

Feb

53%

+3.2%

n=19

Mar

53%

−2.4%

n=19

Apr

58%

+3.9%

n=19

May

37%

−1.7%

n=19

Jun

47%

+0.5%

n=19

Jul

53%

+0.5%

n=19

Aug

26%

−2.8%

n=19

Sep

58%

−0.8%

n=19

Oct

61%

+4.8%

n=18

Nov

61%

+3.0%

n=18

Dec

61%

+0.9%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Lennox Michael	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $45.00	$450K	−5.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	171,037	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20	HELMERICH HANS	director	Sale	65,000 @ $43.90	$2.9M	−5.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,150,915	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20	HELMERICH HANS	director	Sale	25,000 @ $43.90	$1.1M	−5.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	471,735	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20	HELMERICH HANS	director	Sale	4,470 @ $43.90	$196K	−18.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	20,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Hair Cara M.	officer	Sale	11,149 @ $44.27	$494K	−7.6% of holding	−4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	136,095	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Sale	5,054 @ $44.28	$224K	−23.0% of holding	+0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	16,958	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Lennox Michael	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $40.00	$200K	−2.7% of holding	+7.0%	not yet — horizon still open	181,037	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-22	Lennox Michael	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $35.00	$175K	−2.6% of holding	+21.6%	not yet — horizon still open	186,037	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18	Hair Cara M.	officer	Sale	28,345 @ $41.45	$1.2M	−16.1% of holding	−14.2%	not yet — horizon still open	147,244	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-19	Hair Cara M.	officer	Sale	58,771 @ $36.62	$2.2M	−25.1% of holding	−14.0%	not yet — horizon still open	175,589	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-19	HELMERICH HANS	director	Sale	50,000 @ $28.13	$1.4M	−3.9% of holding	+16.6%	+10.6%	1,215,915	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-19	HELMERICH HANS	director	Sale	25,000 @ $28.10	$703K	−4.8% of holding	+16.6%	+10.6%	496,735	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-03	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Sale	6,681 @ $30.23	$202K	−30.5% of holding	+2.0%	+16.9%	15,227	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Sale	6,700 @ $17.83	$119K	−23.4% of holding	+16.0%	+93.8%	21,908	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	Foutch Randy A	director	Purchase	3,800 @ $26.25	$100K	+14.2% of holding	+4.2%	−35.6%	30,624	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10	Chariag Belgacem	director	Purchase	37,356 @ $27.08	$1.0M	+216.6% of holding	+0.7%	−41.2%	54,606	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10	LINDSAY JOHN W	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $27.55	$551K	+3.0% of holding	+0.7%	−41.2%	691,214	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

100 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	Scruggs Todd N.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,150	39,981	Form 4
2026-06-04	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Withheld for tax	440	22,012	Form 4
2026-03-05	Cramton Kevin G.	director	Award / grant	5,273	43,297	Form 4
2026-03-05	Chariag Belgacem	director	Award / grant	5,273	67,056	Form 4
2026-03-05	Robillard Donald F JR	director	Award / grant	5,273	59,010	Form 4
2026-03-05	Foutch Randy A	director	Award / grant	5,273	35,897	Form 4
2026-03-05	ZEGLIS JOHN D	director	Award / grant	5,273	73,442	Form 4
2026-03-05	HELMERICH HANS	director	Award / grant	7,910	138,009	Form 4
2026-03-05	MAS JOSE RAMON	director	Award / grant	5,273	43,297	Form 4
2026-03-05	Bellinger Delaney Murchison	director	Award / grant	5,273	42,697	Form 4
2026-03-05	Killinger Elizabeth R	director	Award / grant	5,273	15,844	Form 4
2026-01-12	LINDSAY JOHN W	director	Withheld for tax	3,410	217,978	Form 4
2026-01-12	Hair Cara M.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,045	234,360	Form 4
2026-01-12	Bell John R.	officer	Withheld for tax	874	255,226	Form 4
2026-01-12	Lennox Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	831	191,037	Form 4
2026-01-12	Adams Raymond John III	officer	Withheld for tax	684	133,922	Form 4
2026-01-12	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Withheld for tax	145	22,452	Form 4
2026-01-12	Lennox Michael	officer	Award / grant	2,436	191,868	Form 4
2026-01-12	Bell John R.	officer	Award / grant	2,562	256,100	Form 4
2026-01-12	LINDSAY JOHN W	director	Award / grant	11,003	221,388	Form 4
2026-01-12	Hair Cara M.	officer	Award / grant	3,062	235,405	Form 4
2026-01-12	Adams Raymond John III	officer	Award / grant	2,004	134,606	Form 4
2026-01-12	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Award / grant	426	22,597	Form 4
2025-12-19	LINDSAY JOHN W	director	Gift	526,123	210,385	Form 4
2025-12-11	LINDSAY JOHN W	director	Withheld for tax	12,268	736,508	Form 4
2025-12-11	Hair Cara M.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,033	232,343	Form 4
2025-12-11	Bell John R.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,976	253,538	Form 4
2025-12-11	Lennox Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	2,912	189,432	Form 4
2025-12-11	Vann J Kevin	director	Withheld for tax	2,858	61,098	Form 4
2025-12-11	Adams Raymond John III	officer	Withheld for tax	2,721	132,602	Form 4
2025-12-11	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Withheld for tax	321	22,171	Form 4
2025-12-10	Momper Sara Marie	officer	Award / grant	7,790	22,492	Form 4
2025-12-10	Bell John R.	officer	Award / grant	32,194	256,514	Form 4
2025-12-10	LINDSAY JOHN W	director	Award / grant	77,818	748,776	Form 4
2025-12-10	Lennox Michael	officer	Award / grant	32,194	192,344	Form 4
2025-12-10	Vann J Kevin	director	Award / grant	34,494	63,956	Form 4
2025-12-10	Adams Raymond John III	officer	Award / grant	37,943	135,323	Form 4
2025-12-10	Hair Cara M.	officer	Award / grant	32,194	236,376	Form 4
2025-12-09	LINDSAY JOHN W	director	Withheld for tax	8,692	670,958	Form 4
2025-12-09	Hair Cara M.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,420	204,182	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Christopher L. Jacobs	House	sale	2023-01-20	2022-12-12	$1–15K
Christopher L. Jacobs	House	purchase	2022-12-12	2022-11-08	$1–15K
Kenneth R. Buck	House	sale	2021-10-17	2021-09-09	$1–15K
Donna Shalala	House	sale	2020-04-27	2019-06-24	$1–15K
Kenneth R. Buck	House	purchase	2017-06-23	2016-12-06	$15–50K
Kenneth R. Buck	House	purchase	2016-12-20	2016-12-01	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2016-03-01	2016-01-20	$15–50K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2016-03-01	2016-01-20	$15–50K
Katherine M. Clark	House	sale	2015-12-08	2015-11-18	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2015-11-19	2015-10-06	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2015-11-19	2015-10-06	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2015-03-18	2015-02-13	$15–50K
Katherine M. Clark	House	sale	2015-02-25	2014-12-01	$1–15K
Katherine M. Clark	House	purchase	2014-12-19	2014-10-16	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i