HOV · TickerCove

HOVHovnanian Enterprises, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Residential Constructionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $116.10 · now $116.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HOV has typically landed between $89.51 and $154.15 — a range of −22.9% to +32.8% from the issuance price $116.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($116.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$116.1 · 39% of range

$94.11 low$150.41 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 23.3%

−22.9%worst (p90)+32.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HOV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $116.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $116.1 (+0.0%)
typical $116.47 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $102.93–$130.01
90% range $89.51–$154.15

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−80.2%	−80.2%	+9.4%
2020-02-21	−77.3%	−81.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−76.0%	−81.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05	+183.6%	−4.9%	+218.0%
2019-08-27	+182.5%	+0.0%	+190.2%
2019-08-09	+181.6%	+0.0%	+181.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

+5.6%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.5%

n=20

Mar

35%

−2.2%

n=20

Apr

55%

+10.4%

n=20

May

50%

−1.4%

n=20

Jun

35%

−2.5%

n=20

Jul

40%

+0.1%

n=20

Aug

55%

+5.7%

n=20

Sep

40%

+2.5%

n=20

Oct

50%

−0.1%

n=20

Nov

70%

+4.5%

n=20

Dec

40%

+2.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-25	SORSBY J LARRY	director	Sale	1,032 @ $142.57	$147K	−0.5% of holding	−6.6%	not yet — horizon still open	187,416	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Sale	12,880 @ $125.78	$1.6M	−100.0% of holding	+4.4%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-28	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Sale	609 @ $138.31	$84K	−1.0% of holding	−8.0%	−19.6%	62,896	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	750 @ $113.26	$85K	−4.1% of holding	+14.8%	−23.0%	17,630	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-07	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	750 @ $109.99	$82K	−3.9% of holding	+21.0%	−22.1%	18,380	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-30	KANGAS EDWARD A	director	Sale	5,500 @ $107.12	$589K	−50.7% of holding	+11.9%	−16.9%	5,338	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	KANGAS EDWARD A	director	Sale	2,000 @ $101.51	$203K	−15.0% of holding	+11.0%	+29.5%	11,290	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	582 @ $107.94	$63K	−2.9% of holding	+4.3%	+23.6%	19,525	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	248 @ $108.64	$27K	−1.2% of holding	+4.3%	+23.6%	20,107	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	142 @ $106.67	$15K	−0.7% of holding	+4.3%	+23.6%	20,355	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	5 @ $109.31	$547	−0.0% of holding	+4.3%	+23.6%	20,497	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-10	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	154 @ $168.91	$26K	−0.7% of holding	−25.4%	−44.1%	20,502	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	87 @ $170.00	$15K	−0.4% of holding	−25.4%	−44.1%	20,656	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	188 @ $170.32	$32K	−0.9% of holding	−27.0%	−41.8%	20,743	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Sale	102 @ $171.54	$17K	−0.5% of holding	−27.0%	−41.8%	20,931	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-15	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Conversion	12,595	324,716	Form 4
2026-07-15	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Conversion	12,595	12,595	Form 4
2026-06-12	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Withheld for tax	17,575	337,311	Form 4
2026-06-12	Hovnanian Alexander A.	officer	Award / grant	4,400	4,400	Form 4
2026-06-12	O'Connor Brad G	officer	Award / grant	3,852	3,852	Form 4
2026-06-12	O'Connor Brad G	officer	Award / grant	3,106	3,106	Form 4
2026-06-12	Wyatt Michael P.	officer	Award / grant	5,456	5,456	Form 4
2026-06-12	Wyatt Michael P.	officer	Award / grant	4,400	4,400	Form 4
2026-06-12	Hernandez-Kakol Miriam	director	Award / grant	1,078	5,617	Form 4
2026-06-12	PAGANO VINCENT JR	director	Award / grant	1,078	25,492	Form 4
2026-06-12	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Award / grant	1,078	18,174	Form 4
2026-06-12	SORSBY J LARRY	director	Award / grant	924	188,448	Form 4
2026-06-12	MARENGI JOSEPH A	director	Award / grant	1,232	30,879	Form 4
2026-06-12	COUTTS ROBERT B	director	Award / grant	1,078	38,418	Form 4
2026-06-12	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Award / grant	18,936	18,936	Form 4
2026-06-12	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Award / grant	15,272	15,272	Form 4
2026-06-12	Hovnanian Alexander A.	officer	Award / grant	5,456	5,456	Form 4
2026-06-11	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Withheld for tax	16,576	354,886	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hovnanian Alexander A.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,694	47,655	Form 4
2026-06-11	O'Connor Brad G	officer	Withheld for tax	2,020	41,305	Form 4
2026-06-11	Wyatt Michael P.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,008	31,880	Form 4
2026-06-11	O'Connor Brad G	officer	Option exercise	4,136	43,325	Form 4
2026-06-11	O'Connor Brad G	officer	Option exercise	4,136	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Wyatt Michael P.	officer	Option exercise	4,136	33,888	Form 4
2026-06-11	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Option exercise	44,800	371,462	Form 4
2026-06-11	Wyatt Michael P.	officer	Option exercise	4,136	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Option exercise	44,800	0	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hovnanian Alexander A.	officer	Option exercise	8,864	52,349	Form 4
2026-06-11	Hovnanian Alexander A.	officer	Option exercise	8,864	0	Form 4
2026-06-09	MARENGI JOSEPH A	director	Disposition	610	29,647	Form 4
2026-06-09	Hernandez-Kakol Miriam	director	Disposition	534	4,539	Form 4
2026-06-09	COUTTS ROBERT B	director	Disposition	534	37,340	Form 4
2026-06-09	PAGANO VINCENT JR	director	Disposition	534	24,414	Form 4
2026-06-09	Sellers Robin Stone	director	Disposition	534	17,096	Form 4
2026-06-03	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Gift	8,963	326,662	Form 4
2026-06-03	Hovnanian Alexander A.	officer	Gift	8,963	43,485	Form 4
2026-06-01	SORSBY J LARRY	director	Withheld for tax	3,068	3,784	Form 4
2026-06-01	SORSBY J LARRY	director	Option exercise	5,000	6,852	Form 4
2026-06-01	SORSBY J LARRY	director	Option exercise	5,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-27	HOVNANIAN ARA K	director	Withheld for tax	3,494	335,625	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i