Issued 2026-09-16 at $104.42 · now $104.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HOOD has typically landed between $76.41 and $141.57 — a range of −26.8% to +35.6% from the issuance price $104.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,268 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($104.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HOOD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $104.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $104.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $106.02 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.86–$121.19
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $76.41–$141.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,268 windows spanning 2021-07-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-16 | −46.4% | −46.4% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-12 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +0.0% |
| 2021-11-15 | −44.2% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-11-04 | +64.5% | +0.0% | +64.5% |
| 2025-04-21 | +62.9% | +0.0% | +62.9% |
| 2023-11-17 | +62.6% | −1.5% | +62.6% |
1,268 overlapping windows · 2021-07-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$85.5B
market cap
$2.07
EPS (TTM)
45.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$4.5B
'20'25
Net income$1.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr42.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr20.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.68
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-47.99
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$33.91
- Analyst target · range $100.00–$160.00$122.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$104.42
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
+3.8%
n=5
Feb
20%
+1.2%
n=5
Mar
40%
+1.4%
n=5
Apr
40%
−6.2%
n=5
May
100%
+18.8%
n=5
Jun
80%
+10.0%
n=5
Jul
60%
+5.2%
n=5
Aug
67%
+6.0%
n=6
Sep
50%
+7.4%
n=6
Oct
60%
−1.1%
n=5
Nov
20%
−0.0%
n=5
Dec
20%
−2.9%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 18,889 @ $114.51 | $2.2M | −75.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 15,984 @ $113.74 | $1.8M | −39.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,989 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $115.54 | $693K | −98.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $112.77 | $271K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,973 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 100 @ $116.26 | $12K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Treseder Oluwadara Johnson | director | Sale | 1,875 @ $125.00 | $234K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 13,208 @ $119.93 | $1.6M | −13.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 86,150 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $123.00 | $467K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 513,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 3,599 @ $122.97 | $443K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 81,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $123.91 | $335K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 510,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 2,700 @ $123.88 | $334K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 2,397 @ $113.25 | $271K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 99,858 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 900 @ $119.60 | $108K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 518,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 812 @ $124.58 | $101K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,839 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 800 @ $121.70 | $97K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 84,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 800 @ $121.66 | $97K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 517,143 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 700 @ $124.62 | $87K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 509,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 400 @ $120.77 | $48K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 517,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 400 @ $120.63 | $48K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 85,750 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 300 @ $118.37 | $36K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $117.86 | $35K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 99,358 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 200 @ $117.17 | $23K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,543 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 200 @ $116.28 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 99,658 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 100 @ $115.84 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,743 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 100 @ $113.45 | $11K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Verma Shiv | officer | Sale | 3,982 @ $95.07 | $379K | −7.1% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,963 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 27,245 @ $97.19 | $2.6M | −82.4% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,801 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 17,271 @ $95.85 | $1.7M | −34.3% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,046 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 5,801 @ $97.79 | $567K | −100.0% of holding | +18.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $90.94 | $309K | −0.7% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 464,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 2,900 @ $91.80 | $266K | −0.6% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,396 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $90.06 | $198K | −0.5% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 467,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 800 @ $86.28 | $69K | −0.2% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 470,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 400 @ $87.19 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 470,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 300 @ $89.08 | $27K | −0.1% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 469,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 23,752 @ $94.70 | $2.2M | −53.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,971 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 17,071 @ $95.49 | $1.6M | −81.4% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $93.77 | $422K | −9.1% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,723 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $96.60 | $203K | −53.8% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $97.68 | $147K | −83.3% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-24 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Sale | 300 @ $99.49 | $30K | −100.0% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Verma Shiv | officer | Sale | 2,282 @ $115.29 | $263K | −3.9% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,245 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Verma Shiv | officer | Sale | 800 @ $113.87 | $91K | −1.3% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Verma Shiv | officer | Sale | 600 @ $112.97 | $68K | −1.0% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,327 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Verma Shiv | officer | Sale | 300 @ $116.04 | $35K | −0.5% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Tenev Vladimir | director | Sale | 115,773 @ $117.27 | $13.6M | −65.9% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,824 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Tenev Vladimir | director | Sale | 68,046 @ $116.38 | $7.9M | −27.9% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,597 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Tenev Vladimir | director | Sale | 59,824 @ $118.14 | $7.1M | −100.0% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Tenev Vladimir | director | Sale | 50,980 @ $114.33 | $5.8M | −14.8% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Tenev Vladimir | director | Sale | 49,177 @ $115.03 | $5.7M | −16.8% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 243,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Tenev Vladimir | director | Sale | 18,200 @ $112.22 | $2.0M | −4.9% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 356,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Tenev Vladimir | director | Sale | 13,000 @ $113.17 | $1.5M | −3.6% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 343,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 2,953 @ $116.80 | $345K | −0.6% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 474,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 2,547 @ $117.80 | $300K | −0.5% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 471,796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $114.68 | $229K | −0.4% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 478,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 900 @ $115.76 | $104K | −0.2% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 477,296 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 700 @ $113.59 | $80K | −0.1% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 480,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 500 @ $112.06 | $56K | −0.1% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 480,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Sale | 400 @ $118.45 | $47K | −0.1% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 471,396 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Sale | 19,377 @ $119.96 | $2.3M | −23.6% of holding | −21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,612 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
164 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 43,373 | 46,805,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 43,373 | 43,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 43,373 | 43,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 43,373 | 43,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 54,309 | 519,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,533 | 102,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Verma Shiv | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,956 | 68,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bazzano Dara | director | Withheld for tax | 2,504 | 4,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Verma Shiv | officer | Option exercise | 9,692 | 58,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 27,995 | 55,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 16,838 | 101,024 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bazzano Dara | director | Option exercise | 6,977 | 34,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 13,747 | 137,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 8,205 | 114,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Verma Shiv | officer | Option exercise | 23,631 | 189,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 9,846 | 137,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 66,490 | 132,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 24,414 | 146,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 16,497 | 164,972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Verma Shiv | officer | Option exercise | 33,323 | 85,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bazzano Dara | director | Option exercise | 6,977 | 6,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bazzano Dara | director | Option exercise | 6,977 | 6,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 112,856 | 574,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 71,176 | 133,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 71,176 | 133,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Verma Shiv | officer | Option exercise | 33,323 | 85,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 112,856 | 574,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 71,176 | 133,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 112,856 | 574,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Verma Shiv | officer | Option exercise | 33,323 | 85,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Quirk Steven M. | officer | Option exercise | 71,176 | 133,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bazzano Dara | director | Option exercise | 6,977 | 6,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Verma Shiv | officer | Option exercise | 33,323 | 85,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bazzano Dara | director | Option exercise | 6,977 | 6,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Gallagher Daniel Martin Jr | officer | Option exercise | 112,856 | 574,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 50,317 | 46,848,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 50,317 | 50,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 50,317 | 50,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 50,317 | 50,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Bhatt Baiju | director | Conversion | 50,317 | 50,317 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-02-23 | 2026-01-20 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.