HONHoneywell International Inc.Industrials · Conglomeratesas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $212.55 · now $212.55 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, HON has typically landed between $191.43 and $234.02 — a range of −9.9% to +10.1% from the issuance price $212.55.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($212.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $212.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$191.43worst · -9.9%$234.02best · +10.1%
  • now $212.55 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $212.82 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $203.95–$221.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $191.43–$234.02
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−41.6%−41.6%+0.0%
2008-09-26−40.7%−40.7%+0.0%
2008-09-25−37.3%−37.3%+1.9%
3 best
2008-12-04+41.5%+0.0%+41.5%
2008-11-20+34.9%+0.0%+38.7%
2008-11-19+34.0%−3.0%+34.6%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$77.1B
market cap
$27.03
EPS (TTM)
9.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$37.4B
'20'25
Net income$4.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr30.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.24
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $212.55$163.27$877.83
  • DCF (intrinsic)$502.29
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$828.55
  • Analyst target · range $235.00–$298.00$255.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$212.55

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+1.9%
n=19
May
74%
+1.9%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.5%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$249$1832026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $78K — West Kenneth J2026-07-27: 6 insider sales, $4.2M — West Kenneth J …2026-03-02: 2 insider sales, $760K — Currier James E, West Kenneth J2026-02-23: 3 insider sales, $1.4M — Lieblein Grace …2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $568K — DAVIS D SCOTT2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Mailloux Robert D.2026-01-30: 2 insider sales, $2.4M — Mailloux Robert D. …2026-01-02: 2 insider sales, $0 — Lieblein Grace …2026-01: 4 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $3.3M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $760K2026-07: 6 open-market sales, $4.2M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $78K↑ buys↓ salesofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed same dayofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Currier James E — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer West Kenneth J — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lieblein Grace — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lieblein Grace — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lieblein Grace — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector DAVIS D SCOTT — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mailloux Robert D. — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Mailloux Robert D. — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mailloux Robert D. — Sale on 2026-01-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lieblein Grace — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lieblein Grace — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03West Kenneth JofficerSale316 @ $245.47$78K−13.6% of holding−15.5%not yet — horizon still open2,004Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerSale7,161 @ $243.77$1.7M−77.1% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open2,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerSale2,667 @ $243.77$650K−55.6% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open2,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerSale2,319 @ $243.77$565K−52.1% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open2,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerSale1,731 @ $243.77$422K−44.8% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open2,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerSale1,623 @ $243.77$396K−43.2% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open2,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerSale1,531 @ $243.77$373K−41.8% of holding−15.9%not yet — horizon still open2,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Currier James EdirectorSale2,248 @ $243.65$548K−33.2% of holding−3.9%−25.3%4,523Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02West Kenneth JofficerSale873 @ $242.70$212K−21.1% of holding−3.9%−25.3%3,268Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Lieblein GracedirectorSale2,242 @ $243.73$546K−13.1% of holding−3.9%−22.2%14,888Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Lieblein GracedirectorSale1,819 @ $243.73$443K−10.5% of holding−3.9%−22.2%15,492Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23Lieblein GracedirectorSale1,786 @ $243.73$435K−10.1% of holding−3.9%−22.2%15,889Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19DAVIS D SCOTTdirectorSale2,367 @ $240.00$568K−7.1% of holding−2.1%−19.4%31,081Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Mailloux Robert D.officerSale5,274 @ $239.00$1.3M−52.3% of holding+3.9%−8.8%4,803Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-30Mailloux Robert D.officerSale9,262 @ $229.00$2.1M−65.9% of holding+9.9%+0.7%4,803Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-30Mailloux Robert D.officerSale1,287 @ $229.00$295K−21.1% of holding+9.9%+0.7%4,803Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Lieblein GracedirectorSale82—−1.0% of holding+17.0%+7.3%8,315Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Lieblein GracedirectorSale82—−1.0% of holding+17.0%+7.3%8,315Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

282 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03LAU PETER JAMESdirectorAward / grant14,23314,233Form 4
2026-08-03Masso JamesofficerAward / grant4,0674,067Form 4
2026-08-03Hammoud BillalofficerAward / grant14,23314,233Form 4
2026-08-03Reilly Jennifer JofficerAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-08-03Mailloux Robert D.officerAward / grant5,3685,368Form 4
2026-08-01Reilly Jennifer JofficerWithheld for tax325427Form 4
2026-08-01Stepniak MichaldirectorWithheld for tax1752,931Form 4
2026-08-01Lu Su PingofficerWithheld for tax1675,541Form 4
2026-08-01Reilly Jennifer JofficerOption exercise7471,453Form 4
2026-08-01Stepniak MichaldirectorOption exercise401389Form 4
2026-08-01Lu Su PingofficerOption exercise382371Form 4
2026-08-01Reilly Jennifer JofficerOption exercise747752Form 4
2026-08-01Stepniak MichaldirectorOption exercise4013,106Form 4
2026-08-01Lu Su PingofficerOption exercise3825,708Form 4
2026-08-01Reilly Jennifer JofficerOption exercise747752Form 4
2026-08-01Stepniak MichaldirectorOption exercise4013,106Form 4
2026-08-01Lu Su PingofficerOption exercise3825,708Form 4
2026-07-30Stepniak MichaldirectorWithheld for tax2632,705Form 4
2026-07-30West Kenneth JofficerWithheld for tax2152,320Form 4
2026-07-30Lu Su PingofficerWithheld for tax2055,326Form 4
2026-07-30Lu Su PingofficerOption exercise4710Form 4
2026-07-30Stepniak MichaldirectorOption exercise6040Form 4
2026-07-30West Kenneth JofficerOption exercise4030Form 4
2026-07-30Lu Su PingofficerOption exercise4715,531Form 4
2026-07-30Lu Su PingofficerOption exercise4715,531Form 4
2026-07-30West Kenneth JofficerOption exercise4032,535Form 4
2026-07-30Stepniak MichaldirectorOption exercise6042,968Form 4
2026-07-30Stepniak MichaldirectorOption exercise6042,968Form 4
2026-07-30West Kenneth JofficerOption exercise4032,535Form 4
2026-07-28Hammoud BillalofficerWithheld for tax1583,574Form 4
2026-07-28Kapur VimaldirectorWithheld for tax1312,206Form 4
2026-07-28Hammoud BillalofficerOption exercise3490Form 4
2026-07-28Kapur VimaldirectorOption exercise300285Form 4
2026-07-28Kapur VimaldirectorOption exercise3002,337Form 4
2026-07-28Hammoud BillalofficerOption exercise3493,732Form 4
2026-07-28Hammoud BillalofficerOption exercise3493,732Form 4
2026-07-28Kapur VimaldirectorOption exercise3002,337Form 4
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerOption exercise7,1619,293Form 4
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerOption exercise2,6674,799Form 4
2026-07-27West Kenneth JofficerOption exercise2,3194,451Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-24$50–100K
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-19$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Angus KingSenatepurchase2026-01-262025-12-29$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Debbie DingellHousesale2025-12-062025-11-24$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.