HOMBHome Bancshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.74 · now $29.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HOMB has typically landed between $26.85 and $33.24 — a range of −9.7% to +11.8% from the issuance price $29.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HOMB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$26.85worst · -9.7%$33.24best · +11.8%
  • now $29.74 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.84 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.44–$31.25
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.85–$33.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.9%−47.9%+0.0%
2020-02-20−43.7%−43.7%+0.0%
2020-02-25−39.2%−44.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+46.4%+0.0%+46.4%
2009-03-16+38.7%+0.0%+40.7%
2009-03-05+38.6%−3.0%+40.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−1.2%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.4%
n=20
May
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Jun
60%
+2.3%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
35%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.7%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Nov
85%
+4.9%
n=20
Dec
70%
+0.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$31$252026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $463K — Rankin Jim2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $379K — TIPTON JOHN STEPHEN2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $53K — Allison John W II2026-04-21: 1 insider sale, $81K — FLOYD JENNIFER C.2026-04-17: 1 insider purchase, $2.7M — ALLISON JOHN W2026-02-23: 1 insider sale, $141K — Allison John W II2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $908K — Hinkle James G2026-01-28: 1 insider sale, $158K — Townsell Donna2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $3.3M — ALLISON JOHN W2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $3.3M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $158K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $2.7M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $81K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $53K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $842K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Rankin Jim — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer TIPTON JOHN STEPHEN — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Allison John W II — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer FLOYD JENNIFER C. — Sale on 2026-04-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ALLISON JOHN W — Purchase on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Allison John W II — Sale on 2026-02-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hinkle James G — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed same daydirector Townsell Donna — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ALLISON JOHN W — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11Rankin JimdirectorSale15,000 @ $30.86$463K−6.7% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open209,617Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04TIPTON JOHN STEPHENofficerSale12,000 @ $31.59$379K−13.6% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open76,308Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Allison John W IIdirectorSale2,000 @ $26.38$53K−0.3% of holding+11.1%not yet — horizon still open649,995Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-21FLOYD JENNIFER C.officerSale3,000 @ $27.11$81K−39.3% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open4,635Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-17ALLISON JOHN WdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $26.96$2.7M+1.8% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open5,798,926Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-23Allison John W IIdirectorSale5,000 @ $28.19$141K−0.8% of holding−1.9%−4.6%651,995Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Hinkle James GdirectorSale30,000 @ $30.27$908K−6.2% of holding−7.2%−5.9%457,127Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-28Townsell DonnadirectorSale5,563 @ $28.38$158K−2.5% of holding−1.0%+4.5%218,460Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26ALLISON JOHN WdirectorSale110,000 @ $30.02$3.3M−1.9% of holding−6.8%−9.5%5,540,776Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-20TIPTON JOHN STEPHENofficerSale24,159 @ $27.52$665K−31.2% of holding+1.7%−8.8%53,308Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-09Hester KevinofficerSale6,345 @ $29.71$189K−100.0% of holding−5.1%−22.1%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-08Hester KevinofficerSale7,128 @ $28.67$204K−100.0% of holding−5.9%−23.7%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-23FLOYD JENNIFER C.officerSale2,500 @ $27.45$69K−36.8% of holding−5.7%−25.8%4,301Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-21ALLISON JOHN WdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $30.76$308K+0.2% of holding−1.4%−6.5%5,693,182Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Engelkes JackdirectorGift5,000210,115Form 4
2026-06-03ALLISON JOHN WdirectorGift30,0005,768,826Form 4
2026-05-19ALLISON JOHN WdirectorGift1005,798,826Form 4
2026-04-22Hester KevinofficerCode W1,628165,903Form 4
2026-04-20Hester KevinofficerWithheld for tax15,637164,275Form 4
2026-04-20Hester KevinofficerOption exercise20,000179,912Form 4
2026-04-20Hester KevinofficerOption exercise20,0000Form 4
2026-01-21Townsell DonnadirectorWithheld for tax14,437224,023Form 4
2026-01-21Townsell DonnadirectorOption exercise20,000238,460Form 4
2026-01-21Townsell DonnadirectorOption exercise20,0000Form 4
2026-01-16Hester KevinofficerAward / grant30,000105,000Form 4
2026-01-16TIPTON JOHN STEPHENofficerAward / grant30,000105,000Form 4
2026-01-16Townsell DonnadirectorAward / grant33,00036,000Form 4
2026-01-16Beebe MikedirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Engelkes JackdirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Carter Russell Davis IIIofficerAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4
2026-01-16ALLISON JOHN WdirectorAward / grant83,000169,333Form 4
2026-01-16ALLISON JOHN WdirectorAward / grant100,000266,667Form 4
2026-01-16LIEBLONG ALEX RdirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16LONGE THOMAS JdirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Davis BriandirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Hinkle James GdirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Adcock Robert H JrdirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Adcock Robert H JrdirectorGift3,461209,871Form 4
2026-01-16Adams MilburndirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Rankin JimdirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Garrett KarendirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-16Ross Larry WdirectorAward / grant3,0006,000Form 4
2026-01-08LIEBLONG ALEX RdirectorGift883560,645Form 4
2025-12-23ALLISON JOHN WdirectorGift14,8505,495,926Form 4
2025-12-18Townsell DonnadirectorGift500218,460Form 4
2025-12-18Townsell DonnadirectorGift50036,844Form 4
2025-12-11Adcock Robert H JrdirectorGift3,478213,332Form 4
2025-12-08ALLISON JOHN WdirectorGift30,0005,510,776Form 4
2025-10-24LIEBLONG ALEX RdirectorGift7,025561,528Form 4
2025-08-22ALLISON JOHN WdirectorGift38,6485,650,776Form 4
2025-07-28ALLISON JOHN WdirectorAward / grant3,5085,689,424Form 4
2025-05-21Adams MilburndirectorGift522144,006Form 4
2025-05-20TIPTON JOHN STEPHENofficerWithheld for tax38,46677,467Form 4
2025-05-20TIPTON JOHN STEPHENofficerOption exercise48,000115,933Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.