HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.84 · now $26.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HOG has typically landed between $22.89 and $31.63 — a range of −14.7% to +17.9% from the issuance price $26.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HOG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.89worst · -14.7%$31.63best · +17.9%
  • now $26.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.47 (-1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $24.6–$28.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.89–$31.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−55.8%−55.8%+0.0%
2020-02-20−54.2%−54.2%+0.0%
2008-09-26−52.5%−52.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+105.4%+0.0%+105.4%
2009-03-05+102.1%+0.0%+102.1%
2009-03-09+91.1%+0.0%+102.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−3.0%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Mar
63%
+3.1%
n=19
Apr
53%
+4.6%
n=19
May
42%
−3.5%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Jul
74%
+6.5%
n=19
Aug
37%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.6%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.8%
n=18
Dec
50%
−1.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$30$172026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $43K — Root Jonathan R2026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $198K — Littleton Gayle2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $259K — Starrs Artie2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $39K — Root Jonathan R2026-07-31: 1 insider purchase, $983K — NOVA DANIEL J2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $38K — Root Jonathan R2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $37K — Root Jonathan R2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $38K — Root Jonathan R2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $41K — Krause Paul J2026-03-12: 1 insider sale, $77K — Do Charles2026-03-09: 2 insider purchases, $362K — Starrs Artie, Flees Lori Ann2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Masood Rafeh2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $121K — FARLEY JR JAMES D2025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $267K — Mansfield Luke Christopher2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $106K — Do Charles2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $372K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $121K2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $362K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $77K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $78K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $37K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $983K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $38K2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $457K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $39K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $43K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Root Jonathan R — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Littleton Gayle — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Starrs Artie — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Root Jonathan R — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NOVA DANIEL J — Purchase on 2026-07-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Root Jonathan R — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Root Jonathan R — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Root Jonathan R — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Krause Paul J — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Do Charles — Sale on 2026-03-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Starrs Artie — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed same daydirector Flees Lori Ann — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed same daydirector Masood Rafeh — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FARLEY JR JAMES D — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Mansfield Luke Christopher — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Do Charles — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Root Jonathan RofficerSale1,554 @ $27.46$43K−5.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open26,292Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Littleton GayleofficerPurchase7,500 @ $26.38$198Kownership Δ n/a+2.6%not yet — horizon still open7,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Starrs ArtiedirectorPurchase10,000 @ $25.89$259K+66.7% of holding+3.6%not yet — horizon still open25,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Root Jonathan RofficerSale1,554 @ $24.88$39K−5.3% of holding−4.1%not yet — horizon still open27,846Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-31NOVA DANIEL JdirectorPurchase40,000 @ $24.57$983K+526.0% of holding−4.1%not yet — horizon still open47,605Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-01Root Jonathan RofficerSale1,554 @ $24.44$38K−5.0% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open29,400Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-01Root Jonathan RofficerSale1,554 @ $23.87$37K−4.8% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open30,954Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19Root Jonathan RofficerSale1,554 @ $24.21$38K−4.6% of holding+8.7%not yet — horizon still open32,508Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11Krause Paul JofficerSale1,564 @ $26.00$41K−5.0% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open30,012Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-12Do CharlesofficerSale4,241 @ $18.09$77K−95.9% of holding+24.1%not yet — horizon still open183Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-09Starrs ArtiedirectorPurchase15,000 @ $19.10$287Kownership Δ n/a+13.7%not yet — horizon still open15,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Flees Lori AnndirectorPurchase4,000 @ $18.89$76K+55.5% of holding+13.7%not yet — horizon still open11,208Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Masood RafehdirectorPurchase2,775 @ $18.00$50K+59.0% of holding+16.8%+41.4%7,480Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-25FARLEY JR JAMES DdirectorSale6,454 @ $18.71$121K−28.5% of holding+12.1%+40.1%16,205Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20Mansfield Luke ChristopherofficerSale11,500 @ $23.21$267K−48.8% of holding−10.7%−9.5%12,055Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-07Do CharlesofficerSale4,136 @ $25.51$106K−95.8% of holding−15.6%−9.8%183Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-05Masood RafehdirectorPurchase2,068 @ $24.06$50K+78.4% of holding+21.2%−24.1%4,705Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-13Mansfield Luke ChristopherofficerSale3,400 @ $25.96$88K−12.6% of holding+6.9%+1.2%23,555Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Littleton GayleofficerAward / grant39,23239,232Form 4
2026-05-21Flees Lori AnndirectorAward / grant8,6218,621Form 4
2026-05-21Golston Allan C.directorAward / grant6,2506,250Form 4
2026-05-21NOVA DANIEL JdirectorAward / grant4,7427,605Form 4
2026-05-21NOVA DANIEL JdirectorAward / grant6,5206,520Form 4
2026-05-21Reintjes Matthew JdirectorAward / grant2,4792,479Form 4
2026-05-21Reintjes Matthew JdirectorAward / grant6,2506,250Form 4
2026-05-21Sylvester MaryrosedirectorAward / grant6,2506,250Form 4
2026-05-21Masood RafehdirectorAward / grant11,20711,207Form 4
2026-05-21Alstead TroydirectorAward / grant6,2506,250Form 4
2026-05-14Golston Allan C.directorOption exercise3,0087,310Form 4
2026-05-14Golston Allan C.directorOption exercise3,0085,619Form 4
2026-05-14FARLEY JR JAMES DdirectorOption exercise6,01522,220Form 4
2026-05-14FARLEY JR JAMES DdirectorOption exercise6,0150Form 4
2026-05-14Sylvester MaryrosedirectorOption exercise6,01527,890Form 4
2026-05-14Sylvester MaryrosedirectorOption exercise6,0150Form 4
2026-05-14Masood RafehdirectorOption exercise6,01513,495Form 4
2026-05-14Masood RafehdirectorOption exercise6,0154,615Form 4
2026-05-14Flees Lori AnndirectorOption exercise6,01517,223Form 4
2026-05-14Flees Lori AnndirectorOption exercise6,0150Form 4
2026-05-14Alstead TroydirectorOption exercise6,0150Form 4
2026-05-14Alstead TroydirectorOption exercise6,01541,249Form 4
2026-04-06Beck Bryan AndrewotherAward / grant7,1437,143Form 4
2026-02-17Krause Paul JofficerWithheld for tax1,76631,576Form 4
2026-02-17Termaat ToriofficerWithheld for tax1,23916,761Form 4
2026-02-17Root Jonathan RofficerWithheld for tax82134,062Form 4
2026-02-17Koval GlenofficerWithheld for tax74213,898Form 4
2026-02-17Koval GlenofficerAward / grant2,28714,640Form 4
2026-02-17Krause Paul JofficerAward / grant3,75733,342Form 4
2026-02-17Termaat ToriofficerAward / grant2,53818,000Form 4
2026-02-17Root Jonathan RofficerAward / grant2,80034,883Form 4
2026-02-13Starrs ArtiedirectorAward / grant159,158159,158Form 4
2026-02-13Koval GlenofficerAward / grant15,42715,427Form 4
2026-02-13Krause Paul JofficerAward / grant24,48624,486Form 4
2026-02-13Beck Bryan AndrewotherAward / grant9,5509,550Form 4
2026-02-13Termaat ToriofficerAward / grant12,34112,341Form 4
2026-02-13Niketh BryanofficerAward / grant36,72936,729Form 4
2026-02-13Do CharlesofficerAward / grant20,47120,471Form 4
2026-02-13Root Jonathan RofficerAward / grant48,97248,972Form 4
2026-02-13Ryan Matthew AofficerAward / grant19,58919,589Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Tim MooreHousesale2026-04-282026-04-07$50–100K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2026-03-242026-03-12$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2026-02-202026-01-23$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2026-01-072025-12-18$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-12-192025-12-09$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-12-022025-11-21$15–50K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-12-022025-11-28$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-08-052025-07-30$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-04-04$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-06-132025-05-01$15–50K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-06-132025-05-14$50–100K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Tim MooreHousesale2025-04-142025-03-25$15–50K
Tim MooreHousepurchase2025-04-142025-03-14$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.