HNVRHanover Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $26.46 · now $26.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HNVR has typically landed between $23.79 and $29.46 — a range of −10.1% to +11.3% from the issuance price $26.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,070 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-05-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($26.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HNVR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $26.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$23.79worst · -10.1%$29.46best · +11.3%
  • now $26.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $26.54 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.63–$27.44
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.79–$29.46
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,070 windows spanning 2022-05-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-06−20.1%−20.1%+0.0%
2025-02-07−19.6%−19.6%+1.2%
2025-02-05−18.3%−18.3%+0.0%
3 best
2024-10-28+29.3%+0.0%+29.3%
2024-11-01+29.0%−1.2%+29.0%
2024-11-04+28.9%+0.0%+30.5%

1,070 overlapping windows · 2022-05-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+3.4%
n=4
Feb
25%
−6.2%
n=4
Mar
25%
−6.1%
n=4
Apr
100%
+7.3%
n=4
May
0%
−1.4%
n=4
Jun
80%
+0.1%
n=5
Jul
60%
+1.7%
n=5
Aug
100%
+3.2%
n=5
Sep
0%
−1.1%
n=5
Oct
50%
+2.7%
n=4
Nov
50%
+8.6%
n=4
Dec
50%
−1.5%
n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$202026-07-30: 1 insider purchase, $269K — O'Connor Kevin M2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $16K — Golden Robert2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $90K — Golden Robert2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $204K — Golden Robert2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $43K — Golden Robert2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $36K — Golden Robert2026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $30K — Golden Robert2026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $23K — Golden Robert2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $51K — Golden Robert2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $17K — Golden Robert2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $12K — Golden Robert2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $106K — Golden Robert2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $106K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $28K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $141K2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $353K2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $269K↑ buys↓ salesofficer O'Connor Kevin M — Purchase on 2026-07-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Golden Robert — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-30O'Connor Kevin MofficerPurchase10,000 @ $26.88$269K+434.8% of holding−2.4%not yet — horizon still open12,300Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-15Golden RobertdirectorSale661 @ $24.21$16K−0.4% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open182,515Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-12Golden RobertdirectorSale3,763 @ $24.02$90K−2.0% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open183,176Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-10Golden RobertdirectorSale8,419 @ $24.20$204K−4.3% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open186,939Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02Golden RobertdirectorSale1,847 @ $23.10$43K−6.1% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open28,341Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-29Golden RobertdirectorSale1,514 @ $23.71$36K−4.8% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open30,188Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27Golden RobertdirectorSale1,295 @ $23.53$30K−3.9% of holding+2.2%not yet — horizon still open31,702Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20Golden RobertdirectorSale1,012 @ $23.01$23K−3.0% of holding−1.2%not yet — horizon still open32,997Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19Golden RobertdirectorSale2,259 @ $22.79$51K−6.2% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open34,009Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06Golden RobertdirectorSale700 @ $23.60$17K−0.4% of holding−7.6%+4.8%195,358Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-05Golden RobertdirectorSale500 @ $23.50$12K−0.3% of holding−9.9%+1.9%196,058Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-04Golden RobertdirectorSale5,000 @ $21.25$106K−5.8% of holding+7.8%+0.5%80,769Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09Golden RobertdirectorSale5,000 @ $23.09$115K−2.5% of holding−12.8%−23.9%196,558Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-09Golden RobertdirectorSale5,000 @ $23.06$115K−10.5% of holding−12.8%−23.9%42,771Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-08Golden RobertdirectorSale5,000 @ $22.83$114K−9.5% of holding−13.7%−24.9%47,771Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-08Golden RobertdirectorSale1,829 @ $23.65$43K−0.9% of holding−13.7%−24.9%201,558Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-06Golden RobertdirectorSale1,708 @ $23.04$39K−0.8% of holding−9.6%−26.2%203,387Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-05Golden RobertdirectorSale323 @ $23.40$8K−0.2% of holding−9.7%−28.2%205,095Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Golden RobertdirectorSale5,000 @ $23.42$117K−2.4% of holding−9.5%−31.7%205,418Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-07Golden RobertdirectorSale2,601 @ $26.06$68K−1.2% of holding−12.1%−21.6%210,418Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-06Golden RobertdirectorSale2,596 @ $26.62$69K−1.2% of holding−12.5%−24.7%213,019Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-05Golden RobertdirectorSale2,761 @ $26.61$73K−55.2% of holding−13.7%−24.5%2,239Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Golden RobertdirectorSale2,920 @ $26.66$78K−10.5% of holding−9.9%−25.4%25,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Golden RobertdirectorSale2,500 @ $26.58$66K−8.2% of holding−11.5%−26.0%27,920Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-31Golden RobertdirectorSale2,272 @ $26.68$61K−6.9% of holding−7.2%−25.5%30,420Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-10Katz Michael David M.D.directorSale5,000 @ $25.53$128K−3.2% of holding−13.1%−14.9%149,279Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10Golden RobertdirectorSale2,500 @ $25.50$64K−8.1% of holding−13.1%−14.9%28,345Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01O'Connor Kevin MofficerAward / grant10,00022,300Form 4
2026-05-06Golden RobertdirectorOption exercise10,00036,268Form 4
2026-05-06Golden RobertdirectorOption exercise10,0000Form 4
2026-05-01Diiorio Lisa AofficerWithheld for tax3,87917,899Form 4
2026-05-01Diiorio Lisa AofficerOption exercise6,00021,778Form 4
2026-05-01Diiorio Lisa AofficerOption exercise6,0000Form 4
2026-02-20PUORRO MICHAEL PdirectorWithheld for tax2,216321,663Form 4
2026-02-20Wilcox McClelland WofficerWithheld for tax1,82097,697Form 4
2026-02-20PUORRO MICHAEL PdirectorWithheld for tax814323,879Form 4
2026-02-20PUORRO MICHAEL PdirectorWithheld for tax680324,693Form 4
2026-02-20PUORRO MICHAEL PdirectorWithheld for tax673325,373Form 4
2026-02-20Wilcox McClelland WofficerWithheld for tax62499,517Form 4
2026-02-20Corbett KevinofficerWithheld for tax60027,936Form 4
2026-02-20Burke Lance PofficerWithheld for tax57227,931Form 4
2026-02-20Wilcox McClelland WofficerWithheld for tax536100,141Form 4
2026-02-20Diiorio Lisa AofficerWithheld for tax42815,778Form 4
2026-02-20Wilcox McClelland WofficerWithheld for tax421100,677Form 4
2026-02-20Burke Lance PofficerWithheld for tax23228,503Form 4
2026-02-20Corbett KevinofficerWithheld for tax23228,536Form 4
2026-02-20Burke Lance PofficerWithheld for tax22028,735Form 4
2026-02-20Corbett KevinofficerWithheld for tax19828,768Form 4
2026-02-20Burns Joseph FofficerWithheld for tax18811,505Form 4
2026-02-20Burke Lance PofficerWithheld for tax18728,955Form 4
2026-02-20Corbett KevinofficerWithheld for tax15728,966Form 4
2026-02-20Vivona John PofficerWithheld for tax955,152Form 4
2026-02-20Diiorio Lisa AofficerWithheld for tax8316,206Form 4
2026-02-20Diiorio Lisa AofficerWithheld for tax7616,289Form 4
2026-02-05Sisti ElenadirectorAward / grant1,592105,016Form 4
2026-02-05Sorrenti John RdirectorAward / grant1,59247,209Form 4
2026-02-05PUORRO MICHAEL PdirectorAward / grant10,945326,046Form 4
2026-02-05Abraham VarkeydirectorAward / grant1,59245,670Form 4
2026-02-05Katz Michael David M.D.directorAward / grant1,592152,202Form 4
2026-02-05Diiorio Lisa AofficerAward / grant1,06216,365Form 4
2026-02-05Burke Lance PofficerAward / grant3,18529,142Form 4
2026-02-05Corbett KevinofficerAward / grant2,19829,123Form 4
2026-02-05Golden RobertdirectorAward / grant1,59226,268Form 4
2026-02-05Vivona John PofficerAward / grant1,3385,247Form 4
2026-02-05Okun Philip AdirectorAward / grant1,59242,669Form 4
2026-02-05Haspel Ahron HdirectorAward / grant1,59229,035Form 4
2026-02-05Burns Joseph FofficerAward / grant2,59211,693Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.