Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.35 · now $5.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HNST has typically landed between $4.12 and $7.30 — a range of −23.0% to +36.5% from the issuance price $5.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,328 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HNST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.14 (-3.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.56–$5.73
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.12–$7.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,328 windows spanning 2021-05-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-02-15 | −44.9% | −44.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-21 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +3.1% |
| 2023-02-22 | −43.3% | −44.4% | +2.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-25 | +139.4% | +0.0% | +139.4% |
| 2024-10-31 | +123.9% | +0.0% | +130.4% |
| 2024-10-24 | +123.9% | −1.6% | +123.9% |
1,328 overlapping windows · 2021-05-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
20%
−7.1%
n=5
Feb
40%
−4.0%
n=5
Mar
40%
−4.5%
n=5
Apr
40%
−7.3%
n=5
May
20%
−6.0%
n=5
Jun
83%
+2.7%
n=6
Jul
33%
+1.8%
n=6
Aug
50%
+7.5%
n=6
Sep
17%
−8.8%
n=6
Oct
20%
−5.7%
n=5
Nov
40%
+37.6%
n=5
Dec
40%
+3.4%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $5.48 | $137K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 429,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Sale | 4,578 @ $5.01 | $23K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 383,517 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Vernon Carla | director | Sale | 117,893 @ $4.99 | $588K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,828,558 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Sale | 9,664 @ $4.99 | $48K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 706,224 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Ball Dorria L. | officer | Sale | 6,812 @ $4.99 | $34K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 418,584 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Sale | 6,403 @ $4.99 | $32K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 454,394 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 6,161 @ $4.99 | $31K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 363,994 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Bruce Curtiss James III | officer | Sale | 3,129 @ $4.99 | $16K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 582,986 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Sale | 2,617 @ $4.99 | $13K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 282,296 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Turner Andrea | director | Sale | 29,899 @ $5.21 | $156K | −10.6% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 252,405 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 79,000 @ $5.22 | $412K | −17.6% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 370,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Turner Andrea | director | Sale | 34,396 @ $5.30 | $182K | −10.9% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,304 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Sale | 4,544 @ $3.34 | $15K | −1.6% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,913 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Vernon Carla | director | Sale | 119,389 @ $3.14 | $375K | −2.9% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,946,451 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Sale | 12,886 @ $3.14 | $40K | −2.6% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 483,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Bruce Curtiss James III | officer | Sale | 12,669 @ $3.14 | $40K | −2.4% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 526,157 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Sale | 9,784 @ $3.14 | $31K | −1.3% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 715,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Ball Dorria L. | officer | Sale | 6,899 @ $3.14 | $22K | −1.6% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,396 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Sale | 6,673 @ $3.14 | $21K | −1.4% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 460,797 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 6,236 @ $3.14 | $20K | −1.4% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,155 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Sale | 2,651 @ $3.14 | $8K | −0.9% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 289,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Sale | 16,602 @ $2.75 | $46K | −5.4% of holding | +2.6% | +90.7% | 292,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Vernon Carla | director | Sale | 129,335 @ $2.85 | $369K | −3.1% of holding | −1.8% | +86.3% | 4,065,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Sale | 22,556 @ $2.85 | $64K | −3.0% of holding | −1.8% | +86.3% | 725,672 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Sale | 21,287 @ $2.85 | $61K | −4.1% of holding | −1.8% | +86.3% | 496,179 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Ball Dorria L. | officer | Sale | 15,099 @ $2.85 | $43K | −3.4% of holding | −1.8% | +86.3% | 432,295 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Sale | 14,866 @ $2.85 | $42K | −3.1% of holding | −1.8% | +86.3% | 467,470 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 12,725 @ $2.85 | $36K | −2.7% of holding | −1.8% | +86.3% | 455,391 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Sale | 12,179 @ $2.85 | $35K | −3.8% of holding | −1.8% | +86.3% | 308,710 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Sale | 73,685 @ $2.84 | $209K | −12.5% of holding | +1.3% | +85.7% | 517,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Barton Katherine | officer | Sale | 5,049 @ $2.53 | $13K | −0.6% of holding | +2.4% | +30.3% | 858,649 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Vernon Carla | director | Sale | 97,505 @ $2.60 | $254K | −3.3% of holding | +1.9% | +25.0% | 2,901,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Barton Katherine | officer | Sale | 28,896 @ $2.60 | $75K | −3.2% of holding | +1.9% | +25.0% | 863,698 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Sale | 11,849 @ $2.60 | $31K | −2.1% of holding | +1.9% | +25.0% | 556,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Sale | 10,595 @ $2.60 | $28K | −2.6% of holding | +1.9% | +25.0% | 399,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Sale | 5,071 @ $2.60 | $13K | −1.7% of holding | +1.9% | +25.0% | 285,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Ball Dorria L. | officer | Sale | 4,767 @ $2.60 | $12K | −1.8% of holding | +1.9% | +25.0% | 262,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,722 @ $2.60 | $12K | −1.6% of holding | +1.9% | +25.0% | 293,424 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Barton Katherine | officer | Sale | 4,969 @ $3.63 | $18K | −0.6% of holding | +1.9% | −47.4% | 892,594 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Vernon Carla | director | Sale | 99,328 @ $3.65 | $363K | −3.2% of holding | +2.8% | −46.6% | 2,998,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Barton Katherine | officer | Sale | 29,433 @ $3.65 | $107K | −3.2% of holding | +2.8% | −46.6% | 897,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Sale | 12,059 @ $3.65 | $44K | −2.1% of holding | +2.8% | −46.6% | 568,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Sale | 10,841 @ $3.65 | $40K | −2.6% of holding | +2.8% | −46.6% | 410,257 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Sale | 5,153 @ $3.65 | $19K | −1.7% of holding | +2.8% | −46.6% | 290,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Ball Dorria L. | officer | Sale | 4,856 @ $3.65 | $18K | −1.8% of holding | +2.8% | −46.6% | 267,391 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,806 @ $3.65 | $18K | −1.6% of holding | +2.8% | −46.6% | 298,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Barton Katherine | officer | Sale | 6,176 @ $3.89 | $24K | −0.7% of holding | −7.8% | −53.5% | 926,996 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Vernon Carla | director | Sale | 98,950 @ $5.32 | $526K | −3.1% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 3,098,321 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Loretta David | officer | Sale | 34,389 @ $5.32 | $183K | −3.7% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 883,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Barton Katherine | officer | Sale | 21,389 @ $5.32 | $114K | −2.2% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 933,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Sale | 12,017 @ $5.32 | $64K | −2.0% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 580,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Sale | 10,746 @ $5.32 | $57K | −2.5% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 421,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Sale | 5,138 @ $5.32 | $27K | −1.7% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 296,032 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Ball Dorria L. | officer | Sale | 4,836 @ $5.32 | $26K | −1.7% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 272,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,788 @ $5.32 | $25K | −1.6% of holding | −5.5% | −61.7% | 302,952 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $4.98 | $100K | −4.4% of holding | −6.4% | −40.2% | 431,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Sale | 37,481 @ $4.87 | $183K | −10.9% of holding | −3.5% | −39.7% | 307,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Vernon Carla | director | Sale | 193,078 @ $4.91 | $948K | −5.7% of holding | −1.1% | −32.4% | 3,197,271 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Loretta David | officer | Sale | 43,211 @ $4.91 | $212K | −4.5% of holding | −1.1% | −32.4% | 917,542 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Barton Katherine | officer | Sale | 31,234 @ $4.91 | $153K | −3.2% of holding | −1.1% | −32.4% | 954,561 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Vernon Carla | director | Award / grant | 362,068 | 4,190,626 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Vernon Carla | director | Award / grant | 362,068 | 362,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 105,799 | 812,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 105,799 | 469,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Award / grant | 105,799 | 388,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | WHITE JAMES D | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 364,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Warren Jessica | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 1,250,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Gentile Susan | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 347,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hartung Jack | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 444,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Turner Andrea | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 316,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Lynch Alissa Hsu | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 314,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Bruce Curtiss James III | officer | Award / grant | 59,958 | 586,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BARKLEY MICHAEL J. | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 305,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BAYNE KATIE J | director | Award / grant | 41,970 | 415,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Ball Dorria L. | officer | Award / grant | 184,770 | 447,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 196,528 | 482,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Vernon Carla | director | Award / grant | 1,293,393 | 4,194,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Sheehey Brendan | officer | Award / grant | 191,489 | 748,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Bruce Curtiss James III | officer | Award / grant | 335,946 | 538,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 174,692 | 468,116 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Winchell Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 191,489 | 591,151 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Award / grant | 205,767 | 320,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Hartung Jack | director | Award / grant | 29,418 | 402,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gentile Susan | director | Award / grant | 28,499 | 305,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | BAYNE KATIE J | director | Award / grant | 27,580 | 373,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Turner Andrea | director | Award / grant | 26,660 | 274,730 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Bruce Curtiss James III | officer | Award / grant | 202,880 | 202,880 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | BAYNE KATIE J | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 346,262 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Gentile Susan | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 277,292 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | WHITE JAMES D | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 322,495 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Hartung Jack | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 372,655 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | BARKLEY MICHAEL J. | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 263,388 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Warren Jessica | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 1,208,310 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Turner Andrea | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 248,070 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Lynch Alissa Hsu | director | Award / grant | 38,252 | 272,736 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-16 | von Kunssberg Etienne | officer | Award / grant | 115,122 | 115,122 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Vernon Carla | director | Award / grant | 627,206 | 3,390,349 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Barton Katherine | officer | Award / grant | 92,859 | 985,795 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Mayle Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 84,713 | 359,886 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-27 | Sternweis Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 84,713 | 318,928 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.