Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.69 · now $14.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HNRG has typically landed between $11.40 and $20.67 — a range of −22.4% to +40.7% from the issuance price $14.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HNRG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.07 (+2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.17–$16.98
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.4–$20.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-06 | −54.5% | −54.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-01-16 | −52.8% | −52.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-01-14 | −50.6% | −50.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-10-10 | +80.3% | +0.0% | +100.5% |
| 2021-09-09 | +79.5% | −7.5% | +79.5% |
| 2024-05-02 | +78.1% | −0.4% | +78.1% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
30%
−0.8%
n=20
Mar
40%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
40%
+0.4%
n=20
May
60%
+9.3%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.6%
n=20
Jul
45%
+4.4%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
55%
+6.7%
n=20
Oct
65%
+5.3%
n=20
Nov
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Dec
40%
−0.0%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Sugg Barbara Ann | director | Purchase | 3,700 @ $17.13 | $63K | ownership Δ n/a | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Sugg Barbara Ann | director | Purchase | 1,300 @ $17.13 | $22K | +35.1% of holding | −11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.60 | $42K | +16.7% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $16.57 | $41K | +14.3% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $16.98 | $85K | +50.0% of holding | −17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $16.90 | $85K | +100.0% of holding | −17.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $17.70 | $35K | +66.7% of holding | −16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-24 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $17.04 | $51K | ownership Δ n/a | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $16.69 | $250K | +4.6% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 338,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $17.83 | $357K | +8.1% of holding | +14.0% | −2.4% | 267,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Purchase | 13,000 @ $19.28 | $251K | +5.5% of holding | −3.0% | −12.3% | 247,914 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $19.76 | $1.5M | −4.5% of holding | −0.3% | −19.3% | 1,584,929 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $19.76 | $494K | −54.3% of holding | −0.3% | −19.3% | 21,072 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $19.53 | $1.5M | −4.3% of holding | +1.8% | −17.8% | 1,659,929 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $19.53 | $488K | −35.2% of holding | +1.8% | −17.8% | 46,072 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 55,337 @ $19.65 | $1.1M | −3.1% of holding | +5.2% | −14.5% | 1,734,929 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 18,446 @ $19.65 | $362K | −20.6% of holding | +5.2% | −14.5% | 71,072 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 58,401 @ $19.18 | $1.1M | −3.2% of holding | +4.5% | −8.3% | 1,790,266 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 19,467 @ $19.18 | $373K | −17.9% of holding | +4.5% | −8.3% | 89,518 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 26,236 @ $19.82 | $520K | −1.4% of holding | +5.0% | −5.0% | 1,848,667 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-25 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 8,746 @ $19.82 | $173K | −7.4% of holding | +5.0% | −5.0% | 108,985 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 6,577 @ $19.08 | $126K | −0.3% of holding | +2.4% | −5.2% | 1,874,903 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 2,193 @ $19.08 | $42K | −1.8% of holding | +2.4% | −5.2% | 117,731 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 57,494 @ $19.25 | $1.1M | −3.0% of holding | −0.9% | −11.9% | 1,881,480 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 19,165 @ $19.25 | $369K | −13.8% of holding | −0.9% | −11.9% | 119,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $15.27 | $305K | +9.3% of holding | +24.0% | +17.8% | 234,914 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-19 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 67,457 @ $19.05 | $1.3M | −3.4% of holding | −14.6% | −5.9% | 1,938,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 30,380 @ $19.05 | $579K | −17.9% of holding | −14.6% | −5.9% | 139,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | Gray Zarrell Thomas | director | Purchase | 9,000 @ $13.60 | $122K | +17.6% of holding | +10.4% | +36.9% | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.40 | $104K | +4.9% of holding | +34.9% | +56.3% | 214,914 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-10 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 16,282 @ $13.10 | $213K | −0.8% of holding | −9.1% | +20.3% | 2,006,431 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-09 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 18,775 @ $13.02 | $245K | −0.9% of holding | −5.3% | +23.6% | 2,022,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Sale | 2,553 @ $13.01 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | −3.6% | +25.4% | 2,041,488 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Option exercise | 8,219 | 8,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,610 | 5,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Option exercise | 8,219 | 32,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Option exercise | 8,219 | 32,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sugg Barbara Ann | director | Award / grant | 5,375 | 5,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Gray Zarrell Thomas | director | Award / grant | 6,047 | 6,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | LUBAR DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 6,316 | 6,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Award / grant | 6,047 | 6,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Gray Zarrell Thomas | director | Award / grant | 6,047 | 6,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Sugg Barbara Ann | director | Award / grant | 5,375 | 5,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Award / grant | 4,927 | 4,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hudson Daniel Timothy | director | Award / grant | 4,927 | 4,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | LUBAR DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 6,316 | 6,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Award / grant | 6,047 | 6,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Lovell Heath Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 23,270 | 64,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Award / grant | 69,808 | 174,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Award / grant | 69,808 | 174,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Award / grant | 15,998 | 40,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Lovell Heath Aaron | officer | Award / grant | 23,270 | 64,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Award / grant | 15,998 | 40,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Lovell Heath Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 40,864 | 170,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Option exercise | 105,079 | 105,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Option exercise | 105,079 | 105,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Van Deman Eric Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 9,973 | 9,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Van Deman Eric Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 9,973 | 9,973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Other acquisition | 55,555 | 323,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Gray Zarrell Thomas | director | Other acquisition | 13,888 | 76,480 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | HARDIE DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 1,944 | 23,016 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | LUBAR DAVID J | director | Award / grant | 2,851 | 2,851 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | Wesley Charles Ray IV | director | Award / grant | 2,592 | 93,862 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-30 | Gray Zarrell Thomas | director | Award / grant | 2,592 | 62,592 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Award / grant | 24,907 | 24,907 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-26 | Telesz Todd E | officer | Award / grant | 24,907 | 24,907 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Option exercise | 194,258 | 1,143,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Option exercise | 105,079 | 1,192,467 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Lovell Heath Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 98,835 | 166,867 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Withheld for tax | 45,972 | 1,146,495 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Bilsland Brent K | director | Withheld for tax | 53,032 | 1,090,203 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Lovell Heath Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 35,482 | 131,385 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Hargrave Marjorie Anne | director | Option exercise | 30,267 | 30,267 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.