HNI · TickerCove

HNIHNI CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliancesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.21 · now $46.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HNI has typically landed between $39.81 and $52.88 — a range of −13.9% to +14.4% from the issuance price $46.21.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$46.21 · 76% of range

$28.93 low$51.58 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 11.1%

−13.9%worst (p90)+14.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HNI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $46.21 (+0.0%)
typical $46.94 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $44.37–$49.5
90% range $39.81–$52.88

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−51.9%	−51.9%	+7.1%
2020-02-20	−46.0%	−55.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−45.0%	−45.0%	+7.2%
3 best
2009-03-30	+56.1%	+0.0%	+56.3%
2008-11-21	+51.7%	+0.0%	+61.4%
2009-03-25	+51.0%	−3.4%	+51.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−1.2%

n=20

Feb

45%

−2.1%

n=20

Mar

50%

−1.0%

n=20

Apr

35%

−0.6%

n=20

May

65%

+3.7%

n=20

Jun

60%

+1.4%

n=20

Jul

55%

+3.2%

n=20

Aug

50%

+0.2%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.4%

n=20

Oct

70%

+2.0%

n=20

Nov

85%

+4.4%

n=20

Dec

50%

+1.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-28	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	1,504 @ $50.00	$75K	−1.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-27	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	27,131 @ $50.09	$1.4M	−15.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-27	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	12,445 @ $50.09	$623K	−7.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-26	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	4,671 @ $50.05	$234K	−3.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-26	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	2,837 @ $50.08	$142K	−1.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	400 @ $50.01	$20K	−0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	300 @ $50.01	$15K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	35,232 @ $47.48	$1.7M	−18.1% of holding	−0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	159,108	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	10,618 @ $47.78	$507K	−6.7% of holding	−0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	148,490	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Smith Brian Scott	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $52.20	$104K	−13.1% of holding	−18.0%	−14.2%	13,226	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-24	CALADO MIGUEL M	director	Sale	1,743 @ $53.00	$92K	−5.5% of holding	−14.4%	−15.9%	30,085	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-24	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Sale	100 @ $53.29	$5K	−0.0% of holding	−14.4%	−15.9%	344,193	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-27	CALADO MIGUEL M	director	Sale	2,000 @ $50.00	$100K	−5.9% of holding	+1.1%	−26.2%	31,828	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13	Hagedorn Jason Dean	officer	Sale	1,440 @ $47.07	$68K	−3.8% of holding	+4.9%	−23.5%	36,711	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-21	Smith Brian Scott	officer	Sale	944 @ $49.95	$47K	−6.7% of holding	+0.5%	−9.6%	13,171	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19	Smith Brian Scott	officer	Sale	1,223 @ $48.62	$59K	−8.5% of holding	−2.4%	−13.6%	13,171	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18	Smith Brian Scott	officer	Sale	556 @ $49.90	$28K	−3.7% of holding	−3.1%	−14.3%	14,394	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-04	Porcellato Larry B	director	Sale	2,000 @ $56.95	$114K	−5.0% of holding	−12.7%	−13.5%	37,880	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

198 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Tasi Irene	director	Award / grant	12,409	12,409	Form 4
2026-08-28	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	1,504	149,994	Form 4
2026-08-28	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	1,504	27,048	Form 4
2026-08-27	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	27,131	175,621	Form 4
2026-08-27	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	12,445	160,935	Form 4
2026-08-27	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	12,445	28,552	Form 4
2026-08-27	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	27,131	40,997	Form 4
2026-08-26	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	4,671	153,161	Form 4
2026-08-26	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	2,837	151,327	Form 4
2026-08-26	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	4,671	70,965	Form 4
2026-08-26	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	2,837	68,128	Form 4
2026-08-24	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	400	148,890	Form 4
2026-08-24	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	300	148,790	Form 4
2026-08-24	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	300	76,036	Form 4
2026-08-24	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	400	75,636	Form 4
2026-08-18	Brown Timothy C. E.	director	Award / grant	263	6,963	Form 4
2026-08-03	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	45,850	194,340	Form 4
2026-08-03	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Option exercise	45,850	0	Form 4
2026-05-19	ROBERTS DAVID MARTIN	director	Award / grant	427	11,907	Form 4
2026-05-19	Brown Timothy C. E.	director	Award / grant	427	6,700	Form 4
2026-05-19	Hallinan Patrick D	director	Award / grant	4,786	19,282	Form 4
2026-05-19	Jones Mary K.W.	director	Award / grant	4,786	44,058	Form 4
2026-05-19	Bell Mary A	director	Award / grant	4,786	84,142	Form 4
2026-05-19	Hartnett John R.	director	Award / grant	4,786	46,070	Form 4
2026-05-19	Brown Timothy C. E.	director	Award / grant	4,786	6,273	Form 4
2026-05-19	Porcellato Larry B	director	Award / grant	4,786	46,419	Form 4
2026-05-19	ROBERTS DAVID MARTIN	director	Award / grant	4,786	11,480	Form 4
2026-05-19	Sivajee Dhanusha	director	Award / grant	4,786	28,620	Form 4
2026-05-19	Williams Linda K	director	Award / grant	4,786	19,563	Form 4
2026-03-17	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Gift	96,007	148,490	Form 4
2026-02-25	Lorenger Jeffrey D	director	Withheld for tax	48,739	244,497	Form 4
2026-02-25	Berger Vincent P	officer	Withheld for tax	10,029	107,510	Form 4
2026-02-25	Bullock Bishop Brandon III	officer	Withheld for tax	6,075	44,099	Form 4
2026-02-25	Hagedorn Jason Dean	officer	Withheld for tax	5,643	49,135	Form 4
2026-02-25	Bradford Steven M	officer	Withheld for tax	5,054	76,185	Form 4
2026-02-25	Smith Brian Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	3,505	21,355	Form 4
2026-02-25	Rao Radhakrishna S	officer	Withheld for tax	2,937	26,039	Form 4
2026-02-25	SMITH KOURTNEY L	officer	Withheld for tax	2,468	45,164	Form 4
2026-02-25	Petersen Jennifer Sue	officer	Withheld for tax	2,166	13,342	Form 4
2026-02-25	Roch Michael J.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,661	23,768	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i