Issued 2026-09-16 at $93.73 · now $93.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HNGE has typically landed between $74.64 and $129.94 — a range of −20.4% to +38.6% from the issuance price $93.73.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
310 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-05-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($93.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HNGE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $93.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $93.73 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $98.08 (+4.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $84.62–$111.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $74.64–$129.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 310 windows spanning 2025-05-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-07 | −36.6% | −36.6% | +0.5% |
| 2026-01-08 | −34.9% | −36.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | −34.9% | −34.9% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-09 | +55.7% | −1.6% | +55.7% |
| 2026-04-10 | +54.6% | +0.0% | +58.2% |
| 2026-06-03 | +50.9% | +0.0% | +50.9% |
310 overlapping windows · 2025-05-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−24.9%
n=1
Feb
100%
+22.5%
n=1
Mar
0%
−9.8%
n=1
Apr
100%
+15.7%
n=1
May
100%
+26.0%
n=1
Jun
100%
+40.4%
n=2
Jul
0%
−11.6%
n=2
Aug
100%
+24.3%
n=2
Sep
50%
−5.6%
n=2
Oct
100%
+1.4%
n=1
Nov
0%
−1.7%
n=1
Dec
0%
−5.0%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 56,161 @ $93.00 | $5.2M | −47.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 33,501 @ $94.03 | $3.2M | −53.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 29,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 29,298 @ $94.70 | $2.8M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 16,540 @ $91.92 | $1.5M | −12.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 11,700 @ $91.09 | $1.1M | −7.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 135,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $88.98 | $249K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 147,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 113,707 @ $88.73 | $10.1M | −57.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 84,965 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 73,241 @ $89.77 | $6.6M | −86.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,724 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 45,533 @ $88.15 | $4.0M | −18.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 198,672 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 11,724 @ $90.46 | $1.1M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 5,795 @ $87.02 | $504K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 244,205 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 58,076 @ $90.03 | $5.2M | −51.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 42,740 @ $90.09 | $3.9M | −44.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,271 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 37,251 @ $88.22 | $3.3M | −20.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 148,219 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 35,303 @ $89.01 | $3.1M | −23.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 24,599 @ $89.02 | $2.2M | −20.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,011 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 24,390 @ $88.22 | $2.2M | −16.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Budge James | officer | Sale | 21,783 @ $90.05 | $2.0M | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 355,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 17,740 @ $90.76 | $1.6M | −32.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Budge James | officer | Sale | 13,807 @ $89.00 | $1.2M | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 377,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Budge James | officer | Sale | 13,261 @ $88.22 | $1.2M | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 391,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 7,171 @ $90.95 | $652K | −13.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Budge James | officer | Sale | 5,910 @ $90.76 | $536K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 349,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 1,630 @ $91.60 | $149K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $91.60 | $101K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Budge James | officer | Sale | 800 @ $91.62 | $73K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 349,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Pursley James | officer | Sale | 22,789 @ $88.25 | $2.0M | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 709,646 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Pursley James | officer | Sale | 6,300 @ $87.23 | $550K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 732,435 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Pursley James | officer | Sale | 3,411 @ $88.68 | $302K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 706,235 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Pursley James | officer | Sale | 500 @ $84.80 | $42K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 738,735 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Leslie Kristina M | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $88.23 | $106K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Robinson Elliott | director | Sale | 0 @ $0.00 | $0 | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 87,848 @ $90.17 | $7.9M | −96.9% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 72,036 @ $90.17 | $6.5M | −96.9% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,289 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 13,935 @ $90.17 | $1.3M | −96.9% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 443 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 2,792 @ $91.00 | $254K | −100.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 2,289 @ $91.00 | $208K | −100.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 2,090 @ $90.17 | $188K | −96.9% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 66 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 443 @ $91.00 | $40K | −100.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 66 @ $91.00 | $6K | −100.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-07 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 122,188 @ $90.23 | $11.0M | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 100,195 @ $90.23 | $9.0M | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 19,382 @ $90.23 | $1.7M | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 2,907 @ $90.23 | $262K | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 56,518 @ $85.00 | $4.8M | −74.4% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 18,675 @ $85.75 | $1.6M | −96.2% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $83.95 | $327K | −4.9% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $82.97 | $290K | −4.2% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,834 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Sale | 741 @ $86.51 | $64K | −100.0% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 279,671 @ $84.02 | $23.5M | −99.9% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 229,334 @ $84.02 | $19.3M | −99.9% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 286 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 216,787 @ $81.31 | $17.6M | −29.6% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 515,657 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
211 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Conversion | 150,000 | 1,844,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Conversion | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Conversion | 250,000 | 1,944,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Conversion | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Conversion | 150,000 | 185,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Gift | 45,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Conversion | 145,000 | 145,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Conversion | 150,000 | 208,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Conversion | 145,000 | 9,778,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Budge James | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,986 | 404,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Pursley James | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,326 | 699,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Budge James | officer | Gift | 11,563 | 414,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Wardi Teddie Benjamin | director | Other acquisition | 4,637 | 4,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Withheld for tax | 509,423 | 2,078,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Option exercise | 944,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Option exercise | 944,250 | 2,588,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Budge James | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,614 | 426,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Pursley James | officer | Withheld for tax | 831 | 739,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Withheld for tax | 509,423 | 9,923,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Award / grant | 944,250 | 944,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Option exercise | 944,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Perez Daniel Antonio | director | Option exercise | 944,250 | 10,433,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | Mecklenburg Gabriel M.I. | director | Award / grant | 944,250 | 944,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 74,325 | 2,463,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 14,378 | 476,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 74,325 | 74,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 90,640 | 3,004,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 74,325 | 2,463,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 14,378 | 476,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,156 | 2,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 90,640 | 90,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 14,378 | 476,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 74,325 | 74,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 14,378 | 14,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 74,325 | 74,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 2,156 | 2,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 90,640 | 90,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 74,325 | 2,463,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 90,640 | 3,004,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Conversion | 14,378 | 476,532 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.