HMNHorace Mann Educators CorporationFinancial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $49.37 · now $49.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HMN has typically landed between $45.24 and $54.69 — a range of −8.4% to +10.8% from the issuance price $49.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($49.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HMN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $49.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$45.24worst · -8.4%$54.69best · +10.8%
  • now $49.37 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.58 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.79–$51.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.24–$54.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−62.1%−62.1%+0.0%
2008-09-26−60.5%−60.5%+0.0%
2008-09-10−59.5%−59.5%+0.4%
3 best
2008-11-20+50.6%+0.0%+60.9%
2008-10-27+45.1%+0.0%+62.7%
2009-03-05+42.5%−4.5%+43.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
25%
−1.0%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Mar
70%
+2.1%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.1%
n=20
May
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Jun
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Jul
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Aug
65%
+1.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Nov
60%
+2.2%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$54$412026-09-03: 2 insider sales, $276K — Hines Perry G., Carley Donald M2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $382K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-08-12: 2 insider sales, $329K — BRADLEY THOMAS A, Reece Henry Wade2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $390K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $395K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $347K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $646 — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $92 — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $19K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $12K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $315K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $346K — ZURAITIS MARITA2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $46K — McClure Beverley J.2026-03-26: 1 insider purchase, $8K — Chauby Steven R2026-02-25: 1 insider purchase, $150K — Fetter Victor2026-01-02: 2 insider sales, $275K — ZURAITIS MARITA, McClure Beverley J.2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $227K — ZURAITIS MARITA2025-11-24: 1 insider sale, $60K — Reece Henry Wade2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $141K — Desrochers Mark R2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $49K — McClure Beverley J.2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $221K — ZURAITIS MARITA2025-10-01: 1 insider sale, $224K — ZURAITIS MARITA2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $229K — ZURAITIS MARITA2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $161K — Carley Donald M2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $372K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $229K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $224K2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $471K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $227K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $275K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $150K2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $8K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $392K2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $346K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $347K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $395K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $719K2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $659K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Hines Perry G. — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Carley Donald M — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BRADLEY THOMAS A — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Reece Henry Wade — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McClure Beverley J. — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Chauby Steven R — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fetter Victor — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McClure Beverley J. — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Reece Henry Wade — Sale on 2025-11-24, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Desrochers Mark R — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McClure Beverley J. — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2025-10-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZURAITIS MARITA — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Carley Donald M — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Hines Perry G.directorSale3,237 @ $52.22$169K−11.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open25,118Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-03Carley Donald MofficerSale2,054 @ $52.28$107K−6.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open28,760Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale7,500 @ $50.99$382K−2.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open299,629Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-12BRADLEY THOMAS AdirectorSale5,000 @ $51.72$259K−18.6% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open21,812Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-12Reece Henry WadedirectorSale1,359 @ $51.52$70K−3.1% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open41,795Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale7,500 @ $52.03$390K−2.4% of holding−2.7%not yet — horizon still open307,129Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale7,500 @ $52.62$395K−2.3% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open314,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-02ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale7,500 @ $46.25$347K−2.4% of holding+19.5%not yet — horizon still open307,812Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-19ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale14 @ $46.15$646−0.0% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open315,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale2 @ $46.15$92−0.0% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open315,326Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale403 @ $46.02$19K−0.1% of holding−5.5%not yet — horizon still open315,328Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale266 @ $46.16$12K−0.1% of holding−5.6%not yet — horizon still open315,731Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale6,815 @ $46.16$315K−2.1% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open315,997Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-23ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale7,500 @ $46.16$346K−2.3% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open322,812Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-01McClure Beverley J.directorSale1,081 @ $42.54$46K−6.8% of holding−2.5%not yet — horizon still open14,797Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-26Chauby Steven RofficerPurchase180 @ $42.40$8K+4.0% of holding−4.0%not yet — horizon still open4,643Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-25Fetter VictordirectorPurchase3,500 @ $42.73$150K+18.6% of holding+6.5%+9.6%22,292Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-02ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $45.15$226K−1.8% of holding−1.5%+11.1%280,399Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02McClure Beverley J.directorSale1,081 @ $45.18$49K−6.4% of holding−1.5%+11.1%15,758Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $45.35$227K−1.7% of holding+2.4%−9.7%283,788Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24Reece Henry WadedirectorSale1,316 @ $45.27$60K−3.3% of holding+0.6%−9.3%39,001Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21Desrochers Mark RofficerSale3,000 @ $47.00$141K−12.7% of holding−3.7%−12.3%20,556Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-13McClure Beverley J.directorSale1,082 @ $45.40$49K−6.1% of holding+1.0%−8.2%16,733Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-03ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $44.17$221K−1.7% of holding+0.8%−3.2%288,788Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $44.81$224K−1.7% of holding−1.4%+0.2%293,788Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $45.76$229K−1.7% of holding−7.6%−11.7%297,155Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22Carley Donald MofficerSale3,500 @ $45.94$161K−13.7% of holding−2.0%−13.2%22,092Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $42.28$211K−1.6% of holding+8.8%−2.1%302,155Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $42.87$214K−1.6% of holding−3.5%−2.4%307,155Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale4,760 @ $42.90$204K−7.5% of holding−7.9%−11.2%58,587Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-04CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale4,752 @ $43.11$205K−7.6% of holding−6.4%−10.0%58,106Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale4,948 @ $43.48$215K−7.9% of holding−6.6%−9.8%57,617Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale1,538 @ $43.78$67K−2.6% of holding−6.6%−9.8%57,026Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $43.24$216K−1.6% of holding−8.5%−10.6%310,451Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale4,728 @ $43.05$204K−7.7% of holding−8.5%−10.6%56,928Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale4,707 @ $43.31$204K−7.7% of holding−5.2%−9.6%56,656Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale4,728 @ $43.18$204K−7.7% of holding−5.0%−7.8%56,363Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale10,771 @ $43.53$469K−16.2% of holding−5.2%−8.1%55,792Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-28CONKLIN BRET AofficerSale4,701 @ $43.49$204K−7.7% of holding−5.2%−8.1%56,091Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20Fetter VictordirectorPurchase3,500 @ $44.03$154K+31.4% of holding−3.9%−5.8%14,655Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Carley Donald MofficerSale5,000 @ $43.93$220K−16.4% of holding−3.9%−7.1%25,473Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $41.40$207K−1.6% of holding−0.3%−13.0%315,451Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-01ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale5,000 @ $43.09$215K−1.5% of holding−4.3%−15.9%320,451Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01McClure Beverley J.directorSale2,816 @ $42.86$121K−17.1% of holding−4.3%−15.9%13,643Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale4,000 @ $37.37$149K−1.3% of holding+12.2%+7.0%294,324Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06McClure Beverley J.directorSale2,817 @ $38.36$108K−14.7% of holding+6.2%+3.5%16,352Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-02ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorSale4,000 @ $39.40$158K−1.3% of holding−4.4%+2.3%298,324Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-24ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorWithheld for tax65,465320,625Form 4
2026-06-24ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorWithheld for tax63,678314,558Form 4
2026-06-24ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorOption exercise71,532386,090Form 4
2026-06-24ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorOption exercise70,424378,236Form 4
2026-06-24ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorOption exercise70,4240Form 4
2026-06-24ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorOption exercise71,5320Form 4
2026-05-20Fetter VictordirectorAward / grant2,78025,596Form 4
2026-05-20BRADLEY THOMAS AdirectorAward / grant2,78026,812Form 4
2026-05-20KONEN MARK EdirectorAward / grant2,78025,410Form 4
2026-05-20Sarsynski Elaine AdirectorAward / grant2,78016,910Form 4
2026-05-20Reece Henry WadedirectorAward / grant2,78042,865Form 4
2026-05-20Hines Perry G.directorAward / grant2,78028,181Form 4
2026-05-20McClure Beverley J.directorAward / grant2,78018,033Form 4
2026-05-20Samuel Aaliyah AdirectorAward / grant2,78011,396Form 4
2026-05-20Fetter VictordirectorAward / grant1,17626,772Form 4
2026-03-04Carley Donald MofficerAward / grant6,14628,463Form 4
2026-03-04Carley Donald MofficerAward / grant11,1760Form 4
2026-03-04Chauby Steven RofficerAward / grant2,5831,765Form 4
2026-03-04Chauby Steven RofficerAward / grant1,8583,623Form 4
2026-03-04Sanders Derik TysonofficerAward / grant2,2950Form 4
2026-03-04Sanders Derik TysonofficerAward / grant1,9131,913Form 4
2026-03-04Fulks Stephanie AofficerAward / grant2,58315,976Form 4
2026-03-04Fulks Stephanie AofficerAward / grant2,67718,653Form 4
2026-03-04Temchuk Maureen AmandaofficerAward / grant1,1490Form 4
2026-03-04Desrochers Mark RofficerAward / grant3,82624,382Form 4
2026-03-04ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorAward / grant63,056343,454Form 4
2026-03-04ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorAward / grant106,9400Form 4
2026-03-04McGinnis Jennifer LofficerAward / grant1,7220Form 4
2026-03-04Greenier Ryan EofficerAward / grant2,5268,738Form 4
2026-03-04Greenier Ryan EofficerAward / grant3,68712,425Form 4
2026-03-04Greenier Ryan EofficerAward / grant12,2920Form 4
2026-03-04Jackson Vanessa AofficerAward / grant2,8680Form 4
2026-03-04ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorAward / grant21,957280,399Form 4
2026-03-04Carley Donald MofficerAward / grant2,29522,317Form 4
2025-12-17CONKLIN BRET AofficerGift5,03654,319Form 4
2025-09-23Sanders Derik TysonofficerAward / grant1,0840Form 4
2025-09-23Fulks Stephanie AofficerAward / grant4,33615,976Form 4
2025-08-29Chauby Steven RofficerAward / grant2,1751,296Form 4
2025-06-30Greenier Ryan EofficerOption exercise1,4999,820Form 4
2025-06-30Greenier Ryan EofficerWithheld for tax1,0828,738Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.