Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.70 · now $19.70 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HMH has typically landed between $16.46 and $23.43 — a range of −16.4% to +18.9% from the issuance price $19.70.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
95 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.70) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HMH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.7 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $19.7 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.85 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.42–$21.27
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.46–$23.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-22 | −25.1% | −25.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-19 | −18.9% | −21.6% | +5.4% |
| 2026-06-03 | −18.1% | −19.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-08 | +27.6% | +0.0% | +31.6% |
| 2026-04-23 | +20.0% | −0.4% | +20.0% |
| 2026-04-20 | +19.6% | +0.0% | +19.6% |
95 overlapping windows · 2026-04-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | McGee Thomas W. | officer | Purchase | 50,000 @ $20.00 | $1.0M | +51.4% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,338 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Bergsvik Eirik | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $20.00 | $200K | +8.9% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,858 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Dyrseth Roy A. | officer | Purchase | 8,000 @ $20.00 | $160K | +13.3% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,276 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Loeffler Lance | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | +58.9% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,486 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Skogerbo Pal | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $20.00 | $20K | +1.7% of holding | +8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,276 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Bergsvik Eirik | officer | Award / grant | 17,483 | 152,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | McGee Thomas W. | officer | Award / grant | 10,927 | 159,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | CHAUVIERE E CHARLS | officer | Award / grant | 10,927 | 96,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | RETTIG DWIGHT W | officer | Award / grant | 10,927 | 109,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Dyrseth Roy A. | officer | Award / grant | 10,927 | 79,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Skogerbo Pal | officer | Award / grant | 10,927 | 67,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Bergsvik Eirik | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,287 | 144,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Dyrseth Roy A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,180 | 74,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Skogerbo Pal | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,180 | 62,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | CHAUVIERE E CHARLS | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,300 | 92,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | RETTIG DWIGHT W | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,300 | 104,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | McGee Thomas W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,300 | 154,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Qureshi Hunain | officer | Award / grant | 3,060 | 26,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Qureshi Hunain | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,205 | 25,789 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Bergsvik Eirik | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,631 | 135,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Skogerbo Pal | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,145 | 56,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Dyrseth Roy A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,145 | 68,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | RETTIG DWIGHT W | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,442 | 98,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | McGee Thomas W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,442 | 148,368 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | CHAUVIERE E CHARLS | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,442 | 85,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Qureshi Hunain | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,970 | 23,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Skogerbo Pal | officer | Award / grant | 13,398 | 60,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Bergsvik Eirik | officer | Award / grant | 48,232 | 141,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | McGee Thomas W. | officer | Award / grant | 24,116 | 151,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | RETTIG DWIGHT W | officer | Award / grant | 24,116 | 101,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Qureshi Hunain | officer | Award / grant | 4,019 | 25,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Dyrseth Roy A. | officer | Award / grant | 18,757 | 72,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | CHAUVIERE E CHARLS | officer | Award / grant | 20,096 | 89,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Bergsvik Eirik | officer | Withheld for tax | 51,559 | 93,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | RETTIG DWIGHT W | officer | Withheld for tax | 39,779 | 77,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | McGee Thomas W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 39,779 | 127,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | CHAUVIERE E CHARLS | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,147 | 69,013 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Skogerbo Pal | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,713 | 47,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Dyrseth Roy A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,713 | 54,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Qureshi Hunain | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,798 | 21,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Qureshi Hunain | officer | Award / grant | 5,089 | 29,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Dyrseth Roy A. | officer | Award / grant | 12,468 | 80,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Bergsvik Eirik | officer | Award / grant | 23,138 | 144,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Skogerbo Pal | officer | Award / grant | 12,468 | 73,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | CHAUVIERE E CHARLS | officer | Award / grant | 17,682 | 103,160 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.