HLX · TickerCove

HLXHelix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.49 · now $8.49 (2026-09-14, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLX has typically landed between $7.03 and $10.46 — a range of −17.2% to +23.3% from the issuance price $8.49.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,995 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-05 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.49 · 53% of range

$6.09 low$10.6 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-14 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.8%

typical move · IQR 17.2%

−17.2%worst (p90)+23.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HLX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.49 (+0.0%)
typical $8.64 (+1.8%)
middle 50% $7.92–$9.37
90% range $7.03–$10.46

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,995 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-14. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−84.9%	−84.9%	+1.5%
2020-03-05	−83.4%	−83.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-14	−83.3%	−83.3%	+1.2%
3 best
2020-05-07	+147.7%	−5.5%	+147.7%
2020-05-06	+137.7%	−4.2%	+137.7%
2020-04-03	+125.0%	+0.0%	+154.0%

4,995 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-14 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−2.2%

n=20

Feb

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Mar

50%

+4.0%

n=20

Apr

65%

+10.1%

n=20

May

45%

−0.1%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.7%

n=20

Jul

55%

+3.5%

n=20

Aug

30%

−2.6%

n=20

Sep

55%

−1.7%

n=20

Oct

50%

+3.5%

n=20

Nov

35%

−0.3%

n=20

Dec

50%

−1.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-03	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $6.88	$275K	−11.7% of holding	+5.4%	+34.3%	301,042	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-30	Neikirk Kenneth English	officer	Sale	83,991 @ $9.17	$770K	−44.5% of holding	−14.9%	−36.4%	104,549	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-10	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Sale	170,000 @ $9.87	$1.7M	−60.1% of holding	−6.0%	−27.4%	112,634	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-10	Glassman Diana	director	Sale	16,000 @ $9.94	$159K	−38.0% of holding	−6.0%	−27.4%	26,133	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

156 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-26	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Option exercise	140,667	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	Staffeldt Erik	officer	Option exercise	132,995	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	Neikirk Kenneth English	officer	Option exercise	97,188	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	KRATZ OWEN E	director	Option exercise	368,292	0	Form 4
2026-01-03	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Withheld for tax	2,521	21,731	Form 4
2026-01-03	Staffeldt Erik	officer	Option exercise	29,359	0	Form 4
2026-01-03	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	5,646	0	Form 4
2026-01-03	Neikirk Kenneth English	officer	Option exercise	21,455	0	Form 4
2026-01-03	KRATZ OWEN E	director	Option exercise	81,301	0	Form 4
2026-01-03	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Option exercise	31,053	0	Form 4
2026-01-03	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	5,646	24,252	Form 4
2026-01-03	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	5,646	24,252	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Withheld for tax	3,194	18,606	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Withheld for tax	1,810	14,647	Form 4
2026-01-01	Neikirk Kenneth English	officer	Option exercise	15,402	15,402	Form 4
2026-01-01	Neikirk Kenneth English	officer	Option exercise	16,988	33,978	Form 4
2026-01-01	Neikirk Kenneth English	officer	Award / grant	83,732	83,732	Form 4
2026-01-01	Neikirk Kenneth English	officer	Award / grant	167,464	167,464	Form 4
2026-01-01	Staffeldt Erik	officer	Award / grant	125,199	125,199	Form 4
2026-01-01	KRATZ OWEN E	director	Option exercise	58,366	58,366	Form 4
2026-01-01	KRATZ OWEN E	director	Option exercise	64,377	128,756	Form 4
2026-01-01	KRATZ OWEN E	director	Award / grant	287,081	287,081	Form 4
2026-01-01	KRATZ OWEN E	director	Award / grant	574,162	574,162	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	4,053	4,054	Form 4
2026-01-01	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Option exercise	22,292	22,293	Form 4
2026-01-01	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Option exercise	24,588	49,178	Form 4
2026-01-01	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Award / grant	109,649	109,649	Form 4
2026-01-01	Sparks Scott Andrew	officer	Award / grant	219,298	219,298	Form 4
2026-01-01	Staffeldt Erik	officer	Option exercise	21,077	21,077	Form 4
2026-01-01	Staffeldt Erik	officer	Award / grant	250,398	250,398	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	7,153	14,306	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Award / grant	31,898	31,898	Form 4
2026-01-01	Staffeldt Erik	officer	Option exercise	26,466	52,933	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	7,153	21,800	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	4,053	16,457	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	7,153	21,800	Form 4
2026-01-01	Arriaga Brent Alexander	director	Option exercise	4,053	16,457	Form 4
2025-12-11	Nelson Amy H	director	Withheld for tax	5,506	121,663	Form 4
2025-12-11	TRANSIER WILLIAM L	director	Withheld for tax	5,506	211,775	Form 4
2025-12-11	Little Thomas Mitchell	director	Withheld for tax	4,762	121,135	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i