HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Travel Lodgingas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $305.63 · now $305.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLT has typically landed between $273.71 and $341.46 — a range of −10.4% to +11.7% from the issuance price $305.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,187 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-12-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($305.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HLT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $305.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$273.71worst · -10.4%$341.46best · +11.7%
  • now $305.63 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $311.87 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $298.13–$325.6
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $273.71–$341.46
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,187 windows spanning 2013-12-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−49.3%−49.3%+0.7%
2020-02-19−48.4%−49.6%+0.0%
2020-02-20−44.9%−49.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+33.4%−1.3%+33.4%
2020-04-03+28.2%+0.0%+41.7%
2016-02-03+25.7%+0.0%+25.7%

3,187 overlapping windows · 2013-12-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$74.0B
market cap
$6.55
EPS (TTM)
49.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$12.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-27.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-2.91
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $305.63$110.82$398.87
  • DCF (intrinsic)$130.68
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$156.03
  • Analyst target · range $312.00–$379.00$344.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$305.63

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
54%
+0.2%
n=13
Feb
69%
+4.9%
n=13
Mar
46%
−2.4%
n=13
Apr
62%
+1.5%
n=13
May
62%
+1.3%
n=13
Jun
54%
−0.1%
n=13
Jul
62%
+2.5%
n=13
Aug
46%
+1.0%
n=13
Sep
46%
−0.8%
n=13
Oct
75%
+2.7%
n=12
Nov
83%
+6.5%
n=12
Dec
58%
+1.9%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$350$2562026-09-14: 3 insider sales, $2.4M — Fuentes Laura, Carr Chris …2026-02-17: 4 insider sales, $36.3M — NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J …2025-08-21: 1 insider sale, $3.2M — Silcock Christopher W2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $3.2M2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $36.3M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $2.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Fuentes Laura — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fuentes Laura — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Carr Chris — Sale on 2026-09-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER J — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Silcock Christopher W — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Fuentes LauradirectorSale4,396 @ $309.80$1.4M−10.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open36,351Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14Fuentes LauradirectorSale2,893 @ $309.82$896K−8.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open33,458Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-14Carr ChrisdirectorSale439 @ $310.34$136K−5.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,252Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JdirectorSale47,134 @ $317.36$15.0M−39.2% of holding−4.1%−9.8%73,196Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JdirectorSale30,404 @ $316.27$9.6M−20.2% of holding−4.1%−9.8%120,330Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JdirectorSale27,376 @ $318.37$8.7M−37.4% of holding−4.1%−9.8%45,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JdirectorSale9,375 @ $319.30$3.0M−20.5% of holding−4.1%−9.8%36,445Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-21Silcock Christopher WofficerSale11,905 @ $269.40$3.2M−13.0% of holding−6.1%+8.0%79,451Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JdirectorSale40,653 @ $268.83$10.9M−34.4% of holding−6.5%−9.6%77,383Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-07Silcock Christopher WofficerSale2,914 @ $269.54$785K−4.0% of holding−6.5%−9.6%70,453Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-16Duffy Michael WofficerSale23,366 @ $251.66$5.9M−50.6% of holding−1.3%−0.4%22,833Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-02-07Mabus Raymond EdirectorPurchase53 @ $197.39$10K+0.4% of holding+2.3%−2.5%14,449Form 4 · filed 510 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

148 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Fuentes LauradirectorOption exercise7,93635,859Form 4
2026-09-14Fuentes LauradirectorOption exercise4,88840,747Form 4
2026-09-14Fuentes LauradirectorOption exercise7,9360Form 4
2026-09-14Fuentes LauradirectorOption exercise4,8880Form 4
2026-08-05Charnaux Christian H.directorWithheld for tax1,85416,435Form 4
2026-06-30Carr ChrisdirectorAward / grant38,691Form 4
2026-06-30Healey MelaniedirectorAward / grant616,678Form 4
2026-06-30GRAY JONATHANdirectorAward / grant49,294Form 4
2026-06-30SMITH ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant823,325Form 4
2026-06-30STEENLAND DOUGLAS MdirectorAward / grant929,176Form 4
2026-06-30Mabus Raymond EdirectorAward / grant515,223Form 4
2026-06-30MAYER MARISSA AdirectorAward / grant11,788Form 4
2026-06-30BEGLEY CHARLENE TdirectorAward / grant615,445Form 4
2026-05-14BEGLEY CHARLENE TdirectorAward / grant74215,440Form 4
2026-05-14Carr ChrisdirectorAward / grant7428,688Form 4
2026-05-14STEENLAND DOUGLAS MdirectorAward / grant74229,167Form 4
2026-05-14GRAY JONATHANdirectorAward / grant7429,290Form 4
2026-05-14Mabus Raymond EdirectorAward / grant74215,218Form 4
2026-05-14MAYER MARISSA AdirectorAward / grant7421,787Form 4
2026-05-14SMITH ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant74223,317Form 4
2026-05-14Healey MelaniedirectorAward / grant74216,672Form 4
2026-05-01MAYER MARISSA AdirectorAward / grant1151,045Form 4
2026-05-01GRAY JONATHANdirectorAward / grant1048,548Form 4
2026-05-01SMITH ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant14522,575Form 4
2026-04-03Krass CarolineofficerWithheld for tax7784,556Form 4
2026-03-31GRAY JONATHANdirectorAward / grant48,444Form 4
2026-03-31Healey MelaniedirectorAward / grant715,930Form 4
2026-03-31SMITH ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant922,430Form 4
2026-03-31STEENLAND DOUGLAS MdirectorAward / grant928,425Form 4
2026-03-31Carr ChrisdirectorAward / grant37,946Form 4
2026-03-31Mabus Raymond EdirectorAward / grant614,476Form 4
2026-03-31MAYER MARISSA AdirectorAward / grant0930Form 4
2026-03-31BEGLEY CHARLENE TdirectorAward / grant714,698Form 4
2026-03-03NASSETTA CHRISTOPHER JdirectorWithheld for tax50,67891,612Form 4
2026-03-03Jacobs Kevin JdirectorWithheld for tax16,414274,145Form 4
2026-03-03Silcock Christopher WofficerWithheld for tax8,76488,257Form 4
2026-03-03Fuentes LauradirectorWithheld for tax5,21227,923Form 4
2026-03-03Moylan MishaofficerWithheld for tax2043,883Form 4
2026-02-25Charnaux Christian H.directorAward / grant2,22918,289Form 4
2026-02-25Charnaux Christian H.directorAward / grant6,1696,169Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousepurchase2026-07-152026-06-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-06$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-03-102026-02-23$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-01-162025-12-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHouseexchange2025-09-252024-03-25$100–250K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.