HLNE · TickerCove

HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedFinancial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $89.88 · now $89.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLNE has typically landed between $75.02 and $106.15 — a range of −16.5% to +18.1% from the issuance price $89.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,379 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-03-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($89.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$89.88 · 21% of range

$73.79 low$151.89 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 16.5%

−16.5%worst (p90)+18.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HLNE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $89.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $89.88 (+0.0%)
typical $90.82 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $83.4–$98.24
90% range $75.02–$106.15

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,379 windows spanning 2017-03-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−42.4%	−42.4%	+0.4%
2020-02-20	−38.0%	−42.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−36.3%	−41.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+40.4%	+0.0%	+43.2%
2020-04-03	+31.7%	+0.0%	+33.2%
2026-07-23	+29.8%	+0.0%	+32.1%

2,379 overlapping windows · 2017-03-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+3.7%

n=9

Feb

22%

−0.6%

n=9

Mar

11%

−2.9%

n=9

Apr

60%

+2.8%

n=10

May

60%

+3.0%

n=10

Jun

50%

+2.5%

n=10

Jul

100%

+7.6%

n=10

Aug

70%

+3.0%

n=10

Sep

20%

−4.9%

n=10

Oct

67%

+1.1%

n=9

Nov

78%

+8.7%

n=9

Dec

56%

+0.5%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-11	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Purchase	27,678 @ $78.73	$2.2M	+41.9% of holding	+3.3%	not yet — horizon still open	93,756	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	BERKMAN DAVID J	director	Purchase	15,000 @ $76.27	$1.1M	+150.0% of holding	+3.3%	not yet — horizon still open	25,000	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Purchase	10,612 @ $77.86	$826K	+19.1% of holding	+3.3%	not yet — horizon still open	66,078	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Purchase	1,283 @ $77.46	$99K	+1.5% of holding	+3.3%	not yet — horizon still open	87,350	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-27	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Purchase	466 @ $92.76	$43K	+0.8% of holding	−10.8%	not yet — horizon still open	55,466	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Purchase	466 @ $92.69	$43K	+0.8% of holding	−10.8%	not yet — horizon still open	55,466	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Purchase	47,025 @ $89.99	$4.2M	ownership Δ n/a	−13.1%	not yet — horizon still open	47,025	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Purchase	7,975 @ $90.43	$721K	+17.0% of holding	−13.1%	not yet — horizon still open	55,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24	BERKMAN DAVID J	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $101.00	$1.0M	ownership Δ n/a	+3.8%	−5.7%	10,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20	Giannini Mario L	director	Purchase	9,225 @ $107.32	$990K	+9.6% of holding	+0.5%	−11.9%	105,723	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	Hirsch Erik R.	director	Purchase	9,225 @ $107.13	$988K	+15.1% of holding	+0.5%	−11.9%	70,494	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Purchase	6,520 @ $107.10	$698K	+0.5% of holding	+0.5%	−11.9%	1,335,342	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Purchase	2,705 @ $107.58	$291K	+0.2% of holding	+0.5%	−11.9%	1,338,047	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Purchase	2,325 @ $107.53	$250K	+3.7% of holding	+0.5%	−11.9%	65,761	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Purchase	3,992 @ $130.87	$522K	+0.3% of holding	−3.6%	−43.5%	1,314,447	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Purchase	4,008 @ $129.84	$520K	+0.3% of holding	−3.6%	−43.5%	1,310,455	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-04	French River 5 Ltd	tenPercentOwner	Sale	150,000 @ $146.51	$22.0M	−31.2% of holding	−16.3%	−31.1%	330,015	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-12	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Sale	10,255 @ $159.00	$1.6M	−100.0% of holding	−0.3%	−3.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Gift	50,000	50,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Gift	50,000	1,326,134	Form 4
2026-05-29	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Award / grant	38,087	1,376,134	Form 4
2026-05-29	Gavalis Lydia	officer	Award / grant	1,139	34,028	Form 4
2026-05-29	Hirsch Erik R.	director	Award / grant	42,145	105,727	Form 4
2026-05-29	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Award / grant	3,543	86,067	Form 4
2026-05-29	Armbrister Jeffrey Brian	officer	Award / grant	2,109	12,958	Form 4
2026-05-29	Carl Drew Thomas	officer	Award / grant	675	1,846	Form 4
2026-03-31	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Award / grant	62	82,524	Form 4
2026-03-14	Hirsch Erik R.	director	Withheld for tax	6,912	63,582	Form 4
2026-03-14	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Withheld for tax	1,212	64,549	Form 4
2026-03-14	Armbrister Jeffrey Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	590	10,849	Form 4
2026-03-14	Gavalis Lydia	officer	Withheld for tax	549	32,889	Form 4
2026-03-14	Carl Drew Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	85	1,178	Form 4
2026-02-06	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Gift	14,375	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Delgado-Moreira Juan	director	Gift	14,375	1,328,822	Form 4
2025-12-31	Carl Drew Thomas	officer	Award / grant	46	1,263	Form 4
2025-12-31	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Award / grant	46	63,436	Form 4
2025-09-30	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Award / grant	46	63,390	Form 4
2025-09-16	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Withheld for tax	736	63,344	Form 4
2025-09-16	Armbrister Jeffrey Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	393	11,439	Form 4
2025-09-16	Kramer Andrea Anigati	officer	Award / grant	2,033	2,033	Form 4
2025-09-16	VARON LESLIE F	director	Award / grant	666	9,658	Form 4
2025-09-16	Graves Reynoldo Vann	director	Award / grant	333	1,681	Form 4
2025-09-16	Carl Drew Thomas	officer	Award / grant	1,356	1,356	Form 4
2025-09-16	SEXTON O GRIFFITH	director	Award / grant	1,331	4,852	Form 4
2025-09-16	Armbrister Jeffrey Brian	officer	Award / grant	2,033	2,033	Form 4
2025-09-16	Gavalis Lydia	officer	Award / grant	1,356	1,356	Form 4
2025-09-04	HLA INVESTMENTS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	320,005	8,128,907	Form 4
2025-09-04	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Other acquisition	149,875	6,510,922	Form 4
2025-09-04	HLA INVESTMENTS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	149,875	6,510,922	Form 4
2025-09-04	Whittemore Laurence	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	35,000	56,880	Form 4
2025-09-04	SCHMERTZLER MICHAEL	director	Other acquisition	25,005	600,000	Form 4
2025-09-04	Whittemore Edward B.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	10,000	95,000	Form 4
2025-09-04	HLA INVESTMENTS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	320,005	8,128,907	Form 4
2025-09-04	Rogers Hartley R.	director	Other acquisition	149,875	6,510,922	Form 4
2025-09-04	HLA INVESTMENTS LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	149,875	6,510,922	Form 4
2025-09-04	Whittemore Laurence	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	35,000	56,880	Form 4
2025-09-04	SCHMERTZLER MICHAEL	director	Other acquisition	25,005	600,000	Form 4
2025-09-04	Whittemore Edward B.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	10,000	95,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i