HLMN · TickerCove

HLMNHillman Solutions Corp.Industrials · Manufacturing - Tools & Accessoriesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.32 · now $7.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLMN has typically landed between $6.15 and $8.61 — a range of −16.0% to +17.6% from the issuance price $7.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,431 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$7.32 · 9% of range

$6.98 low$10.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.7%

typical move · IQR 14.4%

−16.0%worst (p90)+17.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HLMN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $7.32 (+0.0%)
typical $7.27 (-0.7%)
middle 50% $6.74–$7.79
90% range $6.15–$8.61

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,431 windows spanning 2020-12-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-06-06	−30.0%	−32.7%	+0.0%
2022-06-08	−29.5%	−29.7%	+0.0%
2022-06-07	−28.5%	−30.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-12-27	+42.3%	+0.0%	+42.3%
2025-07-15	+37.5%	+0.0%	+37.5%
2022-12-28	+37.4%	+0.0%	+39.9%

1,431 overlapping windows · 2020-12-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+3.8%

n=6

Feb

33%

−1.3%

n=6

Mar

50%

+3.0%

n=6

Apr

17%

−3.4%

n=6

May

17%

−3.7%

n=6

Jun

50%

+2.1%

n=6

Jul

67%

+7.8%

n=6

Aug

17%

−1.0%

n=6

Sep

17%

−4.6%

n=6

Oct

60%

−4.8%

n=5

Nov

60%

+2.5%

n=5

Dec

40%

+0.5%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Kraft Robert O.	director	Purchase	35,500 @ $7.00	$249K	+5.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	697,090	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-09	Kitzberger Amanda	officer	Sale	13,750 @ $7.25	$100K	−18.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	58,855	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	Parker Aaron Jerrod	officer	Sale	17,381 @ $8.57	$149K	−24.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	54,723	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Kitzberger Amanda	officer	Sale	11,804 @ $8.29	$98K	−14.0% of holding	+4.7%	−24.7%	72,605	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10	Moore Scott Kelley	officer	Sale	1,451 @ $8.29	$12K	−1.3% of holding	+4.7%	−24.7%	108,170	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Parker Aaron Jerrod	officer	Sale	4,532 @ $9.86	$45K	−7.4% of holding	−4.0%	−5.3%	56,618	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-01	Kraft Robert O.	director	Purchase	140,000 @ $7.09	$993K	+28.4% of holding	−3.9%	+10.6%	632,752	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-20	Ride Scott	officer	Sale	12,359 @ $10.06	$124K	−20.4% of holding	−3.9%	−9.0%	48,237	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-06	Woodlief Philip	director	Sale	19,779 @ $11.18	$221K	−26.2% of holding	−12.4%	−33.8%	55,811	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-07	Spann Nicky Andre	officer	Withheld for tax	1,656	59,271	Form 4
2026-06-07	Adinolfi Jon Michael	director	Withheld for tax	67,253	843,974	Form 4
2026-06-04	Woodlief Philip	director	Award / grant	19,257	123,629	Form 4
2026-06-04	Honda Diane	director	Award / grant	19,257	66,424	Form 4
2026-06-04	Owens David A.	director	Award / grant	19,257	83,961	Form 4
2026-06-04	O Leary Dan	director	Award / grant	19,257	93,961	Form 4
2026-06-04	Jagdfeld Aaron	director	Award / grant	19,257	248,786	Form 4
2026-06-04	SWYGERT JOHN W	director	Award / grant	19,257	76,754	Form 4
2026-06-04	Gendron Teresa S	director	Award / grant	19,257	83,961	Form 4
2026-06-04	Dowling Diana	director	Award / grant	19,257	83,961	Form 4
2026-04-02	Cahill Douglas	director	Withheld for tax	18,258	724,359	Form 4
2026-04-02	Adinolfi Jon Michael	director	Withheld for tax	10,367	911,227	Form 4
2026-03-07	Cahill Douglas	director	Withheld for tax	29,640	761,846	Form 4
2026-03-07	Cahill Douglas	director	Withheld for tax	19,229	742,617	Form 4
2026-03-07	Kraft Robert O.	director	Withheld for tax	13,192	665,628	Form 4
2026-03-07	Adinolfi Jon Michael	director	Withheld for tax	9,983	921,594	Form 4
2026-03-07	Adinolfi Jon Michael	director	Withheld for tax	9,784	931,577	Form 4
2026-03-07	Hillman Brett Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	6,523	100,158	Form 4
2026-03-07	Parker Aaron Jerrod	officer	Withheld for tax	6,523	73,851	Form 4
2026-03-07	Kitzberger Amanda	officer	Withheld for tax	4,729	86,156	Form 4
2026-03-07	Moore Scott Kelley	officer	Withheld for tax	4,098	111,378	Form 4
2026-03-07	Kraft Robert O.	director	Withheld for tax	4,038	661,590	Form 4
2026-03-07	McCalla Anne	other	Withheld for tax	3,524	83,462	Form 4
2026-03-07	Davis Robert Dale	officer	Withheld for tax	2,062	87,072	Form 4
2026-03-07	Hillman Brett Alan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,997	98,161	Form 4
2026-03-07	Moore Scott Kelley	officer	Withheld for tax	1,757	109,621	Form 4
2026-03-07	Kitzberger Amanda	officer	Withheld for tax	1,747	84,409	Form 4
2026-03-07	Parker Aaron Jerrod	officer	Withheld for tax	1,747	72,104	Form 4
2026-03-07	McCalla Anne	other	Withheld for tax	1,498	81,964	Form 4
2026-03-07	Kitzberger Amanda	officer	Award / grant	24,570	90,885	Form 4
2026-03-07	Davis Robert Dale	officer	Award / grant	24,570	89,134	Form 4
2026-03-07	Adinolfi Jon Michael	director	Award / grant	184,275	941,361	Form 4
2026-03-07	Cahill Douglas	director	Award / grant	30,712	791,486	Form 4
2026-03-07	Hillman Brett Alan	officer	Award / grant	27,641	106,681	Form 4
2026-03-07	Kraft Robert O.	director	Award / grant	46,068	678,820	Form 4
2026-03-07	Moore Scott Kelley	officer	Award / grant	21,498	115,476	Form 4
2026-03-07	Parker Aaron Jerrod	officer	Award / grant	24,570	80,374	Form 4
2026-03-07	McCalla Anne	other	Award / grant	30,712	86,986	Form 4
2025-12-30	Parker Aaron Jerrod	officer	Withheld for tax	814	55,804	Form 4
2025-08-01	Moore Scott Kelley	officer	Withheld for tax	6,704	93,978	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i