HLLYHolley Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.63 · now $2.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLLY has typically landed between $1.94 and $3.42 — a range of −26.1% to +30.2% from the issuance price $2.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,435 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HLLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.94worst · -26.1%$3.42best · +30.2%
  • now $2.63 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.55 (-3.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.28–$2.81
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.94–$3.42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,435 windows spanning 2020-11-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-07-28−52.5%−54.8%+0.0%
2022-07-25−52.0%−53.0%+3.9%
2022-07-26−50.8%−52.8%+4.4%
3 best
2025-08-01+101.0%+0.0%+104.5%
2025-07-31+95.7%−4.3%+95.7%
2025-08-05+94.1%+0.0%+99.5%

1,435 overlapping windows · 2020-11-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+7.1%
n=6
Feb
33%
−7.1%
n=6
Mar
50%
+1.0%
n=6
Apr
33%
−9.1%
n=6
May
33%
−1.4%
n=6
Jun
50%
+4.6%
n=6
Jul
83%
+11.2%
n=6
Aug
33%
+7.5%
n=6
Sep
17%
−13.1%
n=6
Oct
0%
−9.2%
n=5
Nov
60%
+7.2%
n=5
Dec
67%
+1.3%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$4$22025-09-18: 1 insider sale, $5.5M — LOBEL DAVID S2025-09-10: 1 insider sale, $36.8M — LOBEL DAVID S2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $42.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector LOBEL DAVID S — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LOBEL DAVID S — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-09-18LOBEL DAVID SdirectorSale2,100,000 @ $2.63$5.5M−7.8% of holding−16.4%−19.0%24,654,834Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-10LOBEL DAVID SdirectorSale14,000,000 @ $2.63$36.8M−34.4% of holding−0.2%−2.4%26,754,834Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-20LOBEL DAVID SdirectorSale802,127 @ $2.47$2.0M−1.9% of holding−11.9%+12.0%40,754,834Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16LOBEL DAVID SdirectorSale1,743,356 @ $3.00$5.2M−4.0% of holding+15.1%−26.2%41,556,961Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12Stevenson MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax56,8003,124,324Form 4
2026-08-12WEAVER JESSEofficerWithheld for tax32,457661,695Form 4
2026-06-06Stevenson MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax97,6753,181,124Form 4
2026-05-08Clempson GrahamdirectorAward / grant32,710134,895Form 4
2026-05-08Gloeckler Michelle J.directorAward / grant32,710322,758Form 4
2026-05-08JONES GINGER MdirectorAward / grant32,710181,340Form 4
2026-05-08Rubel Matthew EdirectorAward / grant32,710250,854Form 4
2026-05-08Coady James D.directorAward / grant32,710110,041Form 4
2026-05-08Basham OwendirectorAward / grant32,710110,041Form 4
2026-05-08Sehgal AnitadirectorAward / grant32,710154,340Form 4
2026-05-08Stevenson MatthewdirectorAward / grant376,9643,278,799Form 4
2026-03-21WEAVER JESSEofficerWithheld for tax38,786694,152Form 4
2026-03-21Kennedy CarlyofficerWithheld for tax26,784448,271Form 4
2026-03-21Kennedy CarlyofficerAward / grant3,240475,055Form 4
2026-03-21WEAVER JESSEofficerAward / grant4,692732,938Form 4
2026-03-13WEAVER JESSEofficerAward / grant111,911728,246Form 4
2026-03-13Kennedy CarlyofficerAward / grant77,277471,815Form 4
2026-03-08WEAVER JESSEofficerWithheld for tax32,983616,335Form 4
2026-03-08Kennedy CarlyofficerWithheld for tax24,263394,538Form 4
2026-03-04WEAVER JESSEofficerWithheld for tax10,141649,318Form 4
2026-03-04Kennedy CarlyofficerWithheld for tax7,647418,801Form 4
2025-12-24Stevenson MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax178,1942,901,835Form 4
2025-08-12Stevenson MatthewdirectorAward / grant433,0343,080,029Form 4
2025-08-12WEAVER JESSEofficerAward / grant247,448659,459Form 4
2025-08-12Kennedy CarlyofficerAward / grant123,724426,448Form 4
2025-08-12Stevenson MatthewdirectorAward / grant433,0342,646,995Form 4
2025-06-06Stevenson MatthewdirectorWithheld for tax102,8752,213,961Form 4
2025-05-13Rubel Matthew EdirectorAward / grant48,165218,144Form 4
2025-05-13Sehgal AnitadirectorAward / grant48,165121,630Form 4
2025-05-13Basham OwendirectorAward / grant48,16577,331Form 4
2025-05-13Coady James D.directorAward / grant48,16577,331Form 4
2025-05-13Clempson GrahamdirectorAward / grant48,165102,185Form 4
2025-05-13Gloeckler Michelle J.directorAward / grant48,165290,048Form 4
2025-05-13JONES GINGER MdirectorAward / grant48,165148,630Form 4
2025-05-06Kennedy CarlyofficerWithheld for tax1,696302,724Form 4
2025-03-21WEAVER JESSEofficerAward / grant140,810412,011Form 4
2025-03-21Kennedy CarlyofficerAward / grant97,233304,420Form 4
2025-03-10Kennedy CarlyofficerWithheld for tax17,500191,357Form 4
2025-03-10Kennedy CarlyofficerAward / grant15,830207,187Form 4
2025-03-08WEAVER JESSEofficerWithheld for tax32,435249,682Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.