HLIOHelios Technologies, Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $67.06 · now $67.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLIO has typically landed between $56.51 and $80.39 — a range of −15.7% to +19.9% from the issuance price $67.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($67.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HLIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $67.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$56.51worst · -15.7%$80.39best · +19.9%
  • now $67.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.57 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $61.59–$71.54
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $56.51–$80.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-13−45.0%−45.0%+0.0%
2008-10-14−41.9%−41.9%+0.0%
2008-10-21−40.4%−40.4%+0.0%
3 best
2025-07-15+56.1%+0.0%+56.1%
2009-03-05+53.2%−2.3%+53.2%
2007-09-11+52.1%+0.0%+52.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−2.5%
n=20
Feb
65%
+4.1%
n=20
Mar
65%
+4.7%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.2%
n=20
May
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Jun
60%
+3.4%
n=20
Jul
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.4%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Oct
65%
+4.0%
n=20
Nov
55%
+1.7%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$93$472026-06-23: 1 insider sale, $545K — Arduini Matteo2026-06-22: 1 insider sale, $360K — Arduini Matteo2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $229K — Arduini Matteo2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $109K — Arduini Matteo2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $36K — Sacchi Diana2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $36K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $109K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $229K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $905K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Arduini Matteo — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Arduini Matteo — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Arduini Matteo — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Arduini Matteo — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Sacchi Diana — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 7 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23Arduini MatteoofficerSale6,027 @ $90.42$545K−34.7% of holding−11.3%not yet — horizon still open11,317Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22Arduini MatteoofficerSale4,000 @ $89.93$360K−26.1% of holding−12.9%not yet — horizon still open11,317Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15Arduini MatteoofficerSale3,000 @ $76.48$229K−16.4% of holding+9.8%not yet — horizon still open15,317Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Arduini MatteoofficerSale2,000 @ $54.61$109K−12.5% of holding+4.7%+47.1%13,986Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-05Sacchi DianadirectorSale620 @ $58.35$36K−8.2% of holding−6.1%+10.7%6,923Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

257 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise74712,064Form 4
2026-09-11Greenberg Marc AofficerOption exercise74710,821Form 4
2026-09-11Martich Frederick JosephofficerOption exercise74714,476Form 4
2026-09-11Bagan SeandirectorOption exercise74720,754Form 4
2026-09-11Evans Jeremy ScottofficerOption exercise3741,293Form 4
2026-09-11Martich Frederick JosephofficerWithheld for tax29414,182Form 4
2026-09-11Bagan SeandirectorWithheld for tax29420,460Form 4
2026-09-11Greenberg Marc AofficerWithheld for tax29410,527Form 4
2026-09-11Evans Jeremy ScottofficerWithheld for tax921,201Form 4
2026-09-11Bagan SeandirectorOption exercise7470Form 4
2026-09-11Martich Frederick JosephofficerOption exercise7470Form 4
2026-09-11Greenberg Marc AofficerOption exercise7470Form 4
2026-09-11Evans Jeremy ScottofficerOption exercise3740Form 4
2026-09-11Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise7470Form 4
2026-06-23Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise4,00017,344Form 4
2026-06-23Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise1,15313,344Form 4
2026-06-23Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise87412,191Form 4
2026-06-23Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise1,1530Form 4
2026-06-23Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise4,0000Form 4
2026-06-23Arduini MatteoofficerOption exercise8740Form 4
2026-06-16Chenanda CarydirectorAward / grant482482Form 4
2026-06-16Sacchi DianadirectorAward / grant511511Form 4
2026-06-16Schuetz AlexanderdirectorAward / grant482482Form 4
2026-06-16Walsh Ian K.directorAward / grant452452Form 4
2026-06-16Brown Laura DdirectorAward / grant761761Form 4
2026-06-16Britt DouglasdirectorAward / grant511511Form 4
2026-06-05Brown Laura DdirectorOption exercise2,04219,268Form 4
2026-06-05Sacchi DianadirectorOption exercise1,36910,375Form 4
2026-06-05Britt DouglasdirectorOption exercise1,36929,704Form 4
2026-06-05Schuetz AlexanderdirectorOption exercise1,29118,391Form 4
2026-06-05Chenanda CarydirectorOption exercise1,29117,036Form 4
2026-06-05Schuetz AlexanderdirectorWithheld for tax38818,003Form 4
2026-06-05Brown Laura DdirectorOption exercise2,0420Form 4
2026-06-05Britt DouglasdirectorOption exercise1,3690Form 4
2026-06-05Chenanda CarydirectorOption exercise1,2910Form 4
2026-06-05Schuetz AlexanderdirectorOption exercise1,2910Form 4
2026-06-05Sacchi DianadirectorOption exercise1,3690Form 4
2026-04-01Evans Jeremy ScottofficerOption exercise278987Form 4
2026-04-01Evans Jeremy ScottofficerWithheld for tax68919Form 4
2026-04-01Evans Jeremy ScottofficerOption exercise278279Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.