HLIHoulihan Lokey, Inc.Financial Services · Investment - Banking & Investment Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $130.34 · now $130.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLI has typically landed between $115.23 and $148.20 — a range of −11.6% to +13.7% from the issuance price $130.34.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,768 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-08-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($130.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HLI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $130.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$115.23worst · -11.6%$148.2best · +13.7%
  • now $130.34 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $131.48 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $123.96–$139
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $115.23–$148.2
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,768 windows spanning 2015-08-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−19.1%−19.1%+0.4%
2026-02-10−18.6%−18.6%+0.0%
2026-02-11−17.8%−17.8%+0.0%
3 best
2016-11-08+31.1%+0.0%+31.1%
2016-11-07+29.6%−1.1%+29.6%
2016-11-04+29.3%+0.0%+29.3%

2,768 overlapping windows · 2015-08-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+3.4%
n=11
Feb
36%
−0.1%
n=11
Mar
36%
−2.6%
n=11
Apr
55%
+2.4%
n=11
May
64%
+1.6%
n=11
Jun
55%
+0.7%
n=11
Jul
73%
+3.2%
n=11
Aug
64%
+1.9%
n=11
Sep
67%
+1.0%
n=12
Oct
64%
+3.4%
n=11
Nov
82%
+5.9%
n=11
Dec
55%
+0.2%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$207$1232026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $140K — CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M2026-08-03: 1 insider purchase, $501K — ALLEY J LINDSEY2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $941K — BEISER SCOTT L2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $72K — CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $854K — SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT A2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $87K — CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — GOLD IRWIN2025-09-02: 1 insider sale, $98K — CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M2025-08-27: 1 insider sale, $8.0M — SIEGERT PAUL ERIC2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $8.0M2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $1.5M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $87K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $854K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $72K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $941K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $501K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $140K↑ buys↓ salesofficer CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed same dayofficer ALLEY J LINDSEY — Purchase on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BEISER SCOTT L — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT A — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector GOLD IRWIN — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer CRAIN CHRISTOPHER M — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer SIEGERT PAUL ERIC — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerSale1,000 @ $140.15$140K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03ALLEY J LINDSEYofficerPurchase4,020 @ $124.52$501Kownership Δ n/a+5.4%not yet — horizon still open4,020Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-21BEISER SCOTT LdirectorSale6,265 @ $150.26$941K−100.0% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerSale500 @ $143.40$72K−100.0% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorSale5,000 @ $170.86$854K−15.2% of holding−13.6%−40.6%27,982Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerSale500 @ $174.17$87K−100.0% of holding−7.7%−30.4%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-16GOLD IRWINdirectorSale6,811 @ $202.75$1.4M−100.0% of holding−6.2%−31.9%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerSale500 @ $196.22$98K−100.0% of holding−2.4%−24.7%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27SIEGERT PAUL ERICofficerSale40,000 @ $199.95$8.0M−100.0% of holding+0.5%−24.4%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-14Zucker Gillian BethdirectorSale200 @ $191.65$38K−3.5% of holding−3.5%−17.2%5,533Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-30GOLD IRWINdirectorSale5,000 @ $182.81$914K−100.0% of holding+3.7%−12.7%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13Zucker Gillian BethdirectorSale200 @ $174.37$35K−3.4% of holding+8.6%−9.5%5,733Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerSale500 @ $173.02$87K−100.0% of holding+0.2%−15.2%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19BEISER SCOTT LdirectorSale8,008 @ $178.71$1.4M−100.0% of holding−3.3%−14.7%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Zucker Gillian BethdirectorSale200 @ $178.46$36K−3.7% of holding−4.3%−14.3%5,201Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-14Zucker Gillian BethdirectorSale200 @ $154.41$31K−3.6% of holding+6.2%+2.1%5,401Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13Zucker Gillian BethdirectorSale200 @ $158.27$32K−3.4% of holding−0.2%+12.5%5,601Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13Zucker Gillian BethdirectorSale200 @ $178.97$36K−3.3% of holding−2.4%+1.4%5,801Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13Zucker Gillian BethdirectorSale200 @ $180.57$36K−3.1% of holding+2.9%−1.3%6,201Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

96 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion1,0001,000Form 4
2026-09-10CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion1,0000Form 4
2026-05-21Walker Cyrus D.directorAward / grant9967,111Form 4
2026-05-21CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerAward / grant3,1973,197Form 4
2026-05-21CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerCode Z3,19752,328Form 4
2026-05-21ALLEY J LINDSEYofficerAward / grant3,7783,778Form 4
2026-05-21ALLEY J LINDSEYofficerAward / grant3,3223,322Form 4
2026-05-21ALLEY J LINDSEYofficerCode Z7,10074,472Form 4
2026-05-21ZUBER PAUL ANDREWdirectorAward / grant7977,005Form 4
2026-05-21Zucker Gillian BethdirectorAward / grant9966,529Form 4
2026-05-21Adelson Scott JosephdirectorAward / grant13,95213,952Form 4
2026-05-21Adelson Scott JosephdirectorAward / grant3,3223,322Form 4
2026-05-21Adelson Scott JosephdirectorCode Z17,274885,102Form 4
2026-05-21SIEGERT PAUL ERICofficerAward / grant19,81519,815Form 4
2026-05-21SIEGERT PAUL ERICofficerCode Z19,815395,113Form 4
2026-05-21Mund Ronald ScottdirectorAward / grant476969Form 4
2026-05-21BEISER SCOTT LdirectorConversion6,2656,265Form 4
2026-05-21BEISER SCOTT LdirectorConversion6,2650Form 4
2026-05-21SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant1,12929,111Form 4
2026-05-21Bassey Ekpedeme MdirectorAward / grant7976,424Form 4
2026-05-19CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerWithheld for tax2,10749,131Form 4
2026-05-15Carter Todd JdirectorWithheld for tax13,70776,198Form 4
2026-05-15Adelson Scott JosephdirectorWithheld for tax11,093867,828Form 4
2026-05-15SIEGERT PAUL ERICofficerWithheld for tax9,359375,298Form 4
2026-05-15BEISER SCOTT LdirectorWithheld for tax6,497793,916Form 4
2026-05-15GOLD IRWINdirectorWithheld for tax4,6191,061,766Form 4
2026-05-15ALLEY J LINDSEYofficerWithheld for tax2,98367,372Form 4
2026-04-01CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion5000Form 4
2026-04-01CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion500500Form 4
2026-01-02CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion5000Form 4
2026-01-02CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion500500Form 4
2025-12-05GOLD IRWINdirectorConversion5,0005,000Form 4
2025-12-05GOLD IRWINdirectorGift5,0000Form 4
2025-12-05GOLD IRWINdirectorConversion5,0000Form 4
2025-11-26CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion1,2000Form 4
2025-11-26CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerGift1,2000Form 4
2025-11-26CRAIN CHRISTOPHER MofficerConversion1,2001,200Form 4
2025-11-10BEISER SCOTT LdirectorConversion8,0008,000Form 4
2025-11-10BEISER SCOTT LdirectorGift8,0000Form 4
2025-11-10BEISER SCOTT LdirectorConversion8,0000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.