HLFHerbalife Nutrition Ltd.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.83 · now $11.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLF has typically landed between $9.04 and $14.98 — a range of −23.6% to +26.6% from the issuance price $11.83.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HLF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$9.04worst · -23.6%$14.98best · +26.6%
  • now $11.83 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.44 (-3.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.05–$12.83
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.04–$14.98
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−49.1%−49.1%+0.0%
2008-10-21−48.7%−48.7%+0.0%
2008-09-25−48.2%−48.2%+0.0%
3 best
2012-12-24+67.2%+0.0%+77.3%
2025-02-06+65.9%−4.8%+65.9%
2025-10-28+64.5%−4.4%+64.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Feb
70%
+3.5%
n=20
Mar
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Apr
60%
+2.8%
n=20
May
55%
+2.7%
n=20
Jun
75%
+3.0%
n=20
Jul
60%
+6.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
−2.4%
n=20
Sep
35%
−3.4%
n=20
Oct
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Nov
50%
−0.5%
n=20
Dec
45%
−1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$82026-06-04: 1 insider purchase, $14K — L'Helias Sophie2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $123K — Hicks Troy2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $496K — Hicks Troy2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Lamberti Frank2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $110K — Lamberti Frank2025-12-01: 1 insider purchase, $10K — L'Helias Sophie2025-11-26: 1 insider purchase, $5K — L'Helias Sophie2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $152K — Cloud Lynda2025-11: 2 open-market purchases, $158K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $2.6M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $14K↑ buys↓ salesdirector L'Helias Sophie — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed same dayofficer Hicks Troy — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hicks Troy — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lamberti Frank — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed same dayofficer Lamberti Frank — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector L'Helias Sophie — Purchase on 2025-12-01, filed same daydirector L'Helias Sophie — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Cloud Lynda — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-04L'Helias SophiedirectorPurchase1,200 @ $11.31$14K+1.5% of holding+16.3%not yet — horizon still open79,882Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-19Hicks TroyofficerSale10,000 @ $12.32$123K−50.7% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open9,706Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18Hicks TroyofficerSale38,377 @ $12.93$496K−80.9% of holding−8.0%not yet — horizon still open9,062Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Lamberti FrankofficerSale134,982 @ $13.50$1.8M−78.7% of holding−10.4%not yet — horizon still open36,624Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-11Lamberti FrankofficerSale7,937 @ $13.86$110K−4.4% of holding−14.3%not yet — horizon still open171,606Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01L'Helias SophiedirectorPurchase800 @ $12.70$10K+1.2% of holding+1.5%−21.3%66,803Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-26L'Helias SophiedirectorPurchase400 @ $13.22$5K+0.6% of holding−5.8%−23.0%66,003Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-18Cloud LyndadirectorPurchase17,000 @ $8.97$152K+77.8% of holding+56.3%+28.6%38,857Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05Mendoza Juan MigueldirectorPurchase3,143 @ $7.50$24K+1.9% of holding+29.8%+46.3%170,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-22Mendoza Juan MigueldirectorPurchase5,000 @ $6.75$34K+3.1% of holding+16.2%+26.0%166,857Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Mendoza Juan MigueldirectorPurchase5,000 @ $6.73$34K+3.7% of holding+2.6%−11.7%140,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04Mendoza Juan MigueldirectorPurchase2,500 @ $8.00$20K+1.9% of holding+10.5%+9.9%135,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-27Mendoza Juan MigueldirectorPurchase5,000 @ $8.25$41K+3.9% of holding+8.5%−0.6%132,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Lamberti FrankofficerWithheld for tax1,71034,914Form 4
2026-05-18Hicks TroyofficerWithheld for tax58,06419,706Form 4
2026-05-18Hicks TroyofficerOption exercise65,78977,770Form 4
2026-05-18Hicks TroyofficerWithheld for tax14,56211,981Form 4
2026-05-18Hicks TroyofficerOption exercise17,48126,543Form 4
2026-05-18Hicks TroyofficerOption exercise17,48134,964Form 4
2026-05-18Hicks TroyofficerOption exercise65,78932,895Form 4
2026-05-08L'Helias SophiedirectorAward / grant11,87978,682Form 4
2026-05-08Mulligan Donal LdirectorAward / grant11,87968,982Form 4
2026-05-08Otero MariadirectorAward / grant11,87995,129Form 4
2026-05-08Carmona Richard HdirectorAward / grant11,87983,645Form 4
2026-05-08Macadrai RodicadirectorAward / grant11,87967,441Form 4
2026-05-08Mendoza Juan MigueldirectorAward / grant11,879181,879Form 4
2026-05-08Miller PerkinsdirectorAward / grant13,62650,769Form 4
2026-05-08Walsh DesdirectorAward / grant11,87961,879Form 4
2026-05-08Cloud LyndadirectorAward / grant11,87950,736Form 4
2026-05-08LEVITT MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant11,87949,393Form 4
2026-05-04Wang Henry CofficerWithheld for tax4,365142,514Form 4
2026-05-04Irani Jehangir DofficerWithheld for tax3,74246,371Form 4
2026-05-04Hicks TroyofficerWithheld for tax2,87744,032Form 4
2026-05-04Lamberti FrankofficerWithheld for tax2,027179,543Form 4
2026-05-04LEVY ROBERTofficerWithheld for tax2,02711,405Form 4
2026-05-03Gratziani Stephan PauloofficerWithheld for tax7,873107,310Form 4
2026-05-03Wang Henry CofficerWithheld for tax6,197146,879Form 4
2026-05-03Lamberti FrankofficerWithheld for tax6,197181,570Form 4
2026-05-03Irani Jehangir DofficerWithheld for tax5,31150,113Form 4
2026-05-03Hicks TroyofficerWithheld for tax3,33747,369Form 4
2026-05-03LEVY ROBERTofficerWithheld for tax2,87713,432Form 4
2026-02-25LEVY ROBERTofficerAward / grant33,30133,301Form 4
2026-02-25Lamberti FrankofficerAward / grant40,43740,437Form 4
2026-02-25JOHNSON MICHAELdirectorAward / grant72,689887,415Form 4
2026-02-25JOHNSON MICHAELdirectorAward / grant399,619399,619Form 4
2026-02-25Wang Henry CofficerAward / grant33,30133,301Form 4
2026-02-25DeSimone JohnofficerAward / grant45,19545,195Form 4
2026-02-25Gratziani Stephan PauloofficerAward / grant215,033215,033Form 4
2026-02-25Hicks TroyofficerAward / grant33,30133,301Form 4
2026-02-16DeSimone JohnofficerWithheld for tax17,382241,144Form 4
2026-02-16Gratziani Stephan PauloofficerWithheld for tax3,664115,183Form 4
2025-11-14Lamberti FrankofficerAward / grant15,18215,182Form 4
2025-11-03Gratziani Stephan PauloofficerWithheld for tax3,463118,847Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.