HLHecla Mining CompanyBasic Materials · Other Precious Metalsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.99 · now $17.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HL has typically landed between $14.32 and $23.71 — a range of −20.4% to +31.8% from the issuance price $17.99.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$14.32worst · -20.4%$23.71best · +31.8%
  • now $17.99 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.33 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.19–$20.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.32–$23.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-14−71.7%−71.7%+0.0%
2008-10-21−65.6%−67.5%+0.0%
2008-10-13−65.0%−65.0%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-19+114.4%−1.0%+114.4%
2008-11-20+104.9%+0.0%+116.5%
2020-07-07+89.7%+0.0%+89.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
35%
−1.2%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.9%
n=20
Mar
45%
+0.5%
n=20
Apr
50%
+4.0%
n=20
May
35%
+2.4%
n=20
Jun
35%
−2.1%
n=20
Jul
50%
+5.0%
n=20
Aug
40%
+1.7%
n=20
Sep
35%
+0.0%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.1%
n=20
Nov
55%
+7.6%
n=20
Dec
55%
+4.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$32$72026-08-20: 2 insider sales, $498K — Malone Patrick Shay …2026-01-06: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Allen Kurt …2025-12-19: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Clary Michael L.2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $4.0M — Sienko David C2025-11-10: 2 insider sales, $2.5M — Lawlar Russell Douglas …2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $163K — Absolom Stuart Maurice2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $163K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $2.5M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $5.6M2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $498K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Malone Patrick Shay — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Malone Patrick Shay — Sale on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Allen Kurt — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same dayofficer Allen Kurt — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same dayofficer Clary Michael L. — Sale on 2025-12-19, filed same dayofficer Sienko David C — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lawlar Russell Douglas — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lawlar Russell Douglas — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Absolom Stuart Maurice — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Malone Patrick ShayofficerSale23,894 @ $20.76$496K−100.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20Malone Patrick ShayofficerSale100 @ $20.97$2K−0.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open23,894Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Allen KurtofficerSale42,659 @ $21.89$934K−16.5% of holding−2.3%−38.3%216,641Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Allen KurtofficerSale9,560 @ $22.00$210K−3.6% of holding−2.3%−38.3%259,300Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19Clary Michael L.officerSale75,000 @ $20.30$1.5M−17.4% of holding+57.8%−34.5%356,672Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-17Sienko David CofficerSale207,553 @ $19.42$4.0M−18.6% of holding+44.3%−29.5%906,370Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10Lawlar Russell DouglasofficerSale148,372 @ $15.00$2.2M−29.9% of holding+13.5%+30.6%347,402Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10Lawlar Russell DouglasofficerSale18,535 @ $15.02$278K−100.0% of holding+13.5%+30.6%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-12Absolom Stuart MauriceofficerSale14,472 @ $11.29$163K−16.5% of holding+19.1%+75.0%73,200Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-05Absolom Stuart MauriceofficerSale18,926 @ $6.66$126K−24.2% of holding−18.2%+144.7%59,410Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-07Boggs Catherine JdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $4.99$100K+6.1% of holding+21.7%+126.7%348,169Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-06Krcmarov RobertdirectorPurchase14,867 @ $4.72$70K+4.5% of holding+24.7%+121.3%346,453Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-26Clary Michael L.officerSale32,387 @ $5.18$168K−11.6% of holding+16.8%+44.1%246,440Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-26Sienko David CofficerSale21,826 @ $5.18$113K−2.3% of holding+16.8%+44.1%914,571Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-26Lawlar Russell DouglasofficerSale16,333 @ $5.18$85K−5.2% of holding+16.8%+44.1%297,983Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-26Allen KurtofficerSale9,195 @ $5.18$48K−8.1% of holding+16.8%+44.1%104,512Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19Krcmarov RobertdirectorPurchase6,570 @ $5.29$35K+2.0% of holding+16.5%+36.5%331,856Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-02-26Brown Robert DenisofficerSale24,650 @ $5.18$128K−5.5% of holding+17.1%+65.7%424,110Form 4 · filed 366 days after the trade
2024-02-26Absolom Stuart MauriceofficerSale5,170 @ $5.18$27K−8.1% of holding+17.1%+65.7%58,969Form 4 · filed 366 days after the trade
2024-02-26Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos RobertoofficerSale5,170 @ $5.18$27K−3.6% of holding+17.1%+65.7%137,178Form 4 · filed 366 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

123 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-22Lawlar Russell DouglasofficerWithheld for tax79,437302,808Form 4
2026-06-22Krcmarov RobertdirectorWithheld for tax79,437786,708Form 4
2026-06-22Krcmarov RobertdirectorAward / grant66,708786,708Form 4
2026-06-22Brown Robert DenisofficerWithheld for tax27,043594,056Form 4
2026-06-22Lawlar Russell DouglasofficerAward / grant24,640302,808Form 4
2026-06-22Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos RobertoofficerAward / grant24,640331,927Form 4
2026-06-22Sienko David CofficerWithheld for tax23,973934,511Form 4
2026-06-22Sienko David CofficerAward / grant22,724934,511Form 4
2026-06-22Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos RobertoofficerWithheld for tax21,659331,927Form 4
2026-06-22Brown Robert DenisofficerAward / grant20,424594,056Form 4
2026-06-22Moyes Kari G.officerAward / grant19,87630,557Form 4
2026-06-22Malone Patrick ShayofficerAward / grant19,548200,945Form 4
2026-06-22Allen KurtofficerAward / grant19,548316,223Form 4
2026-06-22Malone Patrick ShayofficerWithheld for tax17,846200,945Form 4
2026-06-22Allen KurtofficerWithheld for tax14,309316,223Form 4
2026-06-22STANLEY CHARLES BdirectorOther acquisition14,422326,056Form 4
2026-06-22Board Mark PdirectorOther acquisition14,42262,278Form 4
2026-06-22Satre JilldirectorOther acquisition14,42242,697Form 4
2026-06-22Wong AlicedirectorOther acquisition14,422136,578Form 4
2026-06-22Absolom Stuart MauriceofficerWithheld for tax7,07095,259Form 4
2026-06-22Absolom Stuart MauriceofficerAward / grant6,25895,259Form 4
2026-06-22Boggs Catherine JdirectorAward / grant10,816267,322Form 4
2026-06-22Gehring DeandirectorOther acquisition7,21130,876Form 4
2026-06-22Gehring DeandirectorAward / grant7,2117,211Form 4
2026-06-22Boggs Catherine JdirectorOther acquisition3,606113,055Form 4
2026-06-22Moyes Kari G.officerWithheld for tax303543Form 4
2026-06-22Krcmarov RobertdirectorOther acquisition2,5282,528Form 4
2026-06-22Absolom Stuart MauriceofficerOther acquisition16,61316,613Form 4
2026-06-22Malone Patrick ShayofficerAward / grant19,548200,945Form 4
2026-06-22Allen KurtofficerOther acquisition28,11728,117Form 4
2026-06-22Brown Robert DenisofficerAward / grant20,424594,056Form 4
2026-06-22Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos RobertoofficerAward / grant24,640331,927Form 4
2026-06-22Sienko David CofficerOther acquisition17,35417,354Form 4
2026-06-22Sienko David CofficerAward / grant22,724934,511Form 4
2026-06-22Aguiar Rodriguez Carlos RobertoofficerOther acquisition10,21010,210Form 4
2026-06-22Moyes Kari G.officerAward / grant19,87650,433Form 4
2026-06-22Lawlar Russell DouglasofficerOther acquisition1,1301,130Form 4
2026-06-22Lawlar Russell DouglasofficerAward / grant24,640302,808Form 4
2026-06-22Malone Patrick ShayofficerOther acquisition2,3072,307Form 4
2026-06-22Allen KurtofficerAward / grant19,548316,223Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.