HIPOHippo Holdings Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.88 · now $31.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HIPO has typically landed between $23.40 and $41.49 — a range of −26.6% to +30.1% from the issuance price $31.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,406 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-01-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HIPO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$23.4worst · -26.6%$41.49best · +30.1%
  • now $31.88 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.97 (-2.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $27.43–$34.51
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $23.4–$41.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,406 windows spanning 2021-01-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-07-23−60.0%−60.0%+0.0%
2021-07-22−57.9%−57.9%+0.1%
2021-07-21−57.3%−57.3%+0.1%
3 best
2024-02-05+116.6%+0.0%+116.6%
2024-02-07+97.5%+0.0%+113.8%
2024-02-08+96.7%+0.0%+107.4%

1,406 overlapping windows · 2021-01-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.5%
n=5
Feb
67%
+7.9%
n=6
Mar
33%
−1.3%
n=6
Apr
50%
+2.6%
n=6
May
17%
−9.3%
n=6
Jun
50%
−1.4%
n=6
Jul
50%
+1.1%
n=6
Aug
67%
−4.5%
n=6
Sep
17%
−11.0%
n=6
Oct
40%
+1.5%
n=5
Nov
40%
+5.9%
n=5
Dec
20%
−10.4%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$38$242026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $161K — McCathron Richard2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $39K — Ostergaard Torben2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $160K — McCathron Richard2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $52K — Zeltser Guy2026-07-09: 1 insider sale, $143K — McCathron Richard2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $125K — McCathron Richard2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $96K — Ostergaard Torben2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $136K — McCathron Richard2026-04-09: 1 insider sale, $130K — McCathron Richard2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $129K — McCathron Richard2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $18K — Ostergaard Torben2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $174K — Ostergaard Torben2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $146K — McCathron Richard2026-01-09: 1 insider sale, $158K — McCathron Richard2025-12-22: 1 insider sale, $121K — Stienstra Michael2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $149K — McCathron Richard2025-11-21: 2 insider sales, $117K — Ostergaard Torben …2025-11-18: 2 insider sales, $58K — Zeltser Guy …2025-11-14: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Zeltser Guy2025-09-17: 2 insider sales, $194K — Zeltser Guy …2025-09-08: 1 insider sale, $93K — McCathron Richard2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $77K — McCathron Richard2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $77K2025-09: 3 open-market sales, $287K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $5K2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $175K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $270K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $158K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $338K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $129K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $130K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $231K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $125K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $194K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $199K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $161K↑ buys↓ salesdirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ostergaard Torben — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeltser Guy — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ostergaard Torben — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-04-09, filed 4 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ostergaard Torben — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ostergaard Torben — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Stienstra Michael — Sale on 2025-12-22, filed 7 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ostergaard Torben — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ostergaard Torben — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zeltser Guy — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zeltser Guy — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zeltser Guy — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 96 days after the tradeofficer Zeltser Guy — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeltser Guy — Sale on 2025-09-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector McCathron Richard — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $32.23$161K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open567,132Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale1,169 @ $33.00$39K−1.9% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open61,824Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $32.00$160K−0.9% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open580,433Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Zeltser GuyofficerSale1,669 @ $30.98$52K−1.4% of holding+5.4%not yet — horizon still open120,563Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $28.53$143K−0.8% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open585,433Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $25.00$125K−0.8% of holding+13.5%not yet — horizon still open590,433Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale3,667 @ $26.10$96K−5.3% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open65,673Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-11McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $27.10$136K−0.8% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open604,212Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $26.05$130K−0.8% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open610,650Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $25.86$129K−0.8% of holding+1.2%+10.8%615,650Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale600 @ $30.44$18K−1.3% of holding+0.9%+9.0%46,094Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale6,105 @ $28.57$174K−11.6% of holding−7.4%+1.1%46,694Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $29.14$146K−1.1% of holding−7.4%+5.3%442,704Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $31.52$158K−1.1% of holding−9.0%−17.5%447,704Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-22Stienstra MichaelofficerSale3,900 @ $31.12$121K−5.2% of holding−1.8%−25.0%71,281Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-12-09McCathron RicharddirectorSale5,000 @ $29.82$149K−1.1% of holding+1.2%−24.5%452,704Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale3,493 @ $31.96$112K−5.9% of holding−7.1%−34.2%55,359Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale152 @ $32.63$5K−0.3% of holding−7.1%−34.2%55,207Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-18Zeltser GuyofficerSale1,719 @ $32.12$55K−2.4% of holding−4.7%−32.4%68,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Zeltser GuyofficerSale100 @ $32.74$3K−0.1% of holding−4.7%−32.4%68,860Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14Zeltser GuyofficerPurchase665 @ $7.23$5K+1.0% of holding−3.9%−27.6%69,525Form 4 · filed 96 days after the trade
2025-09-17Zeltser GuyofficerSale4,977 @ $37.46$186K−6.2% of holding−8.3%−31.3%75,061Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-17Zeltser GuyofficerSale200 @ $38.05$8K−0.3% of holding−8.3%−31.3%74,861Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08McCathron RicharddirectorSale2,725 @ $34.12$93K−0.6% of holding−5.1%−33.8%470,388Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22McCathron RicharddirectorSale2,275 @ $34.00$77K−0.5% of holding+2.4%−21.6%473,113Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-01Len FW Investor, LLCotherSale514,309 @ $28.17$14.5M−17.2% of holding−10.1%−3.6%2,476,418Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-12Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale2,444 @ $29.95$73K−3.7% of holding−15.2%−11.2%64,349Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-04Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale4,889 @ $24.61$120K−6.8% of holding+5.7%+7.9%66,793Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-01Wand AssafdirectorSale12,250 @ $25.04$307K−2.5% of holding−6.4%+24.1%474,564Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03Wand AssafdirectorSale12,250 @ $28.90$354K−2.5% of holding−9.7%+3.2%486,814Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Stienstra MichaelofficerSale2,329 @ $30.02$70K−3.8% of holding−4.5%−1.7%59,648Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale19,285 @ $30.29$584K−26.0% of holding+2.6%−8.5%54,835Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale21,146 @ $30.05$635K−22.2% of holding+5.1%−1.3%74,120Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Wand AssafdirectorSale8,048 @ $26.52$213K−1.6% of holding+10.9%−4.3%503,266Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Wand AssafdirectorSale4,202 @ $27.22$114K−0.8% of holding+10.9%−4.3%499,064Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-29Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale3,022 @ $27.25$82K−3.1% of holding+5.3%−12.1%95,266Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale3,022 @ $25.77$78K−3.0% of holding+15.7%−5.8%98,288Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-02Wand AssafdirectorSale8,496 @ $25.81$219K−1.6% of holding+14.9%+2.2%515,068Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Ellis StewartdirectorSale5,667 @ $26.11$148K−1.7% of holding+14.9%+2.2%322,548Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Ellis StewartdirectorSale4,333 @ $26.64$115K−1.3% of holding+14.9%+2.2%318,215Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Wand AssafdirectorSale3,754 @ $26.51$100K−0.7% of holding+14.9%+2.2%511,314Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-23Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale3,022 @ $25.91$78K−2.9% of holding+3.1%+3.6%101,310Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-18Ellis StewartdirectorSale12,000 @ $25.91$311K−3.5% of holding+1.1%+6.7%328,215Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-17Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale1,992 @ $26.43$53K−1.9% of holding+1.1%+8.2%104,432Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-17Ostergaard TorbenofficerSale100 @ $27.20$3K−0.1% of holding+1.1%+8.2%104,332Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15McCathron RicharddirectorWithheld for tax8,301572,132Form 4
2026-08-15Ellis StewartdirectorAward / grant5,350126,455Form 4
2026-08-15Zeltser GuyofficerWithheld for tax3,945116,618Form 4
2026-08-15Boettcher LauraofficerWithheld for tax1,58671,381Form 4
2026-08-15Ostergaard TorbenofficerWithheld for tax1,34062,993Form 4
2026-08-15Stienstra MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,25989,901Form 4
2026-06-10Boettcher LauraofficerAward / grant11,67472,967Form 4
2026-06-03Ellis StewartdirectorAward / grant4,820121,105Form 4
2026-06-02WIJNBERG SANDRA SdirectorAward / grant4,73821,815Form 4
2026-06-02Schaaf MarkdirectorAward / grant4,73816,103Form 4
2026-06-02NICHOLS JOHN DRAKEdirectorAward / grant4,73816,563Form 4
2026-06-02Landman SamdirectorAward / grant4,73824,272Form 4
2026-06-02FRATER HUGH RdirectorAward / grant4,73821,815Form 4
2026-06-02Feder EricdirectorAward / grant4,73821,815Form 4
2026-06-02Fouche Lori DickersondirectorAward / grant4,73821,815Form 4
2026-06-02Hay Laura JdirectorAward / grant2,5022,502Form 4
2026-06-02Holliday Susan ClairedirectorAward / grant2,5022,502Form 4
2026-06-02WIJNBERG SANDRA SdirectorAward / grant4,80826,623Form 4
2026-06-02FRATER HUGH RdirectorAward / grant4,80826,623Form 4
2026-06-02Fouche Lori DickersondirectorAward / grant4,80826,623Form 4
2026-06-02Hay Laura JdirectorAward / grant4,8087,310Form 4
2026-06-02NICHOLS JOHN DRAKEdirectorAward / grant4,80821,371Form 4
2026-06-02Landman SamdirectorAward / grant4,80829,080Form 4
2026-06-02Schaaf MarkdirectorAward / grant4,80820,911Form 4
2026-06-02Holliday Susan ClairedirectorAward / grant4,8087,310Form 4
2026-05-15McCathron RicharddirectorWithheld for tax8,779595,433Form 4
2026-05-15Zeltser GuyofficerWithheld for tax4,169122,232Form 4
2026-05-15Ostergaard TorbenofficerWithheld for tax1,34064,333Form 4
2026-05-15Stienstra MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,25991,160Form 4
2026-05-14Zeltser GuyofficerAward / grant743126,401Form 4
2026-04-27Ostergaard TorbenofficerWithheld for tax1,43869,340Form 4
2026-04-27McCathron RicharddirectorWithheld for tax1,438609,212Form 4
2026-04-27Zeltser GuyofficerWithheld for tax1,091125,658Form 4
2026-04-27Stienstra MichaelofficerWithheld for tax79492,419Form 4
2026-03-03McCathron RicharddirectorAward / grant113,719544,837Form 4
2026-03-03McCathron RicharddirectorAward / grant75,813620,650Form 4
2026-03-02Zeltser GuyofficerAward / grant24,683126,749Form 4
2026-03-02Stienstra MichaelofficerAward / grant14,81083,339Form 4
2026-03-02Stienstra MichaelofficerAward / grant9,87493,213Form 4
2026-03-02Ostergaard TorbenofficerAward / grant14,81060,904Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.