Issued 2026-09-16 at $28.00 · now $28.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HIMS has typically landed between $20.17 and $42.68 — a range of −28.0% to +52.4% from the issuance price $28.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,740 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-09-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($28.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HIMS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $27.94 (-0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.92–$32.96
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.17–$42.68
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-19 | −52.2% | −54.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-13 | −50.9% | −50.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-01-16 | −49.5% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-01-17 | +146.8% | +0.0% | +146.8% |
| 2025-04-16 | +139.9% | −5.9% | +139.9% |
| 2025-04-21 | +136.9% | −1.9% | +150.2% |
1,740 overlapping windows · 2019-09-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Sale | 3,458 @ $28.33 | $98K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 310,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Sale | 25,111 @ $27.55 | $692K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 313,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 4,938 @ $29.99 | $148K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 264,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Autor Deborah M. | director | Sale | 16,773 @ $27.85 | $467K | −25.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 48,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 9,388 @ $27.89 | $262K | −3.4% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,117 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 7,163 @ $31.99 | $229K | −2.5% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,321 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 7,163 @ $36.49 | $261K | −2.5% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 18,197 @ $34.03 | $619K | −6.0% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 55,383 @ $35.09 | $1.9M | −19.5% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,938 | Form 4 · filed 61 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Carroll Patrick Harrison | director | Sale | 23,726 @ $35.00 | $830K | −11.5% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,861 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Elshenawy Mohamed | director | Sale | 30,040 @ $31.50 | $946K | −22.9% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,023 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Chi Michael | officer | Sale | 14,027 @ $31.50 | $442K | −3.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 432,124 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Becklund Irene | officer | Sale | 4,490 @ $31.50 | $141K | −39.8% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-16 | Becklund Irene | officer | Sale | 7,573 @ $30.25 | $229K | −40.2% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | WELLS DAVID B | director | Purchase | 48,400 @ $24.23 | $1.2M | +27.5% of holding | +39.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,417 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 7,950 @ $23.64 | $188K | −2.9% of holding | +42.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 262,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 19,645 @ $29.96 | $589K | −7.0% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 262,954 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Sale | 9,463 @ $30.00 | $284K | −3.1% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 299,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 18,005 @ $27.83 | $501K | −6.3% of holding | −26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 270,046 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 36,922 @ $25.90 | $956K | −11.6% of holding | −12.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 281,867 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 3,975 @ $19.98 | $79K | −1.2% of holding | +19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Sale | 9,217 @ $23.77 | $219K | −2.8% of holding | +26.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,789 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Chi Michael | officer | Sale | 97,289 @ $24.69 | $2.4M | −19.3% of holding | +3.2% | −0.9% | 407,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Becklund Irene | officer | Sale | 5,529 @ $24.69 | $137K | −38.7% of holding | +3.2% | −0.9% | 8,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Sale | 4,812 @ $24.69 | $119K | −1.5% of holding | +3.2% | −0.9% | 308,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
275 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Dudum Andrew | director | Other acquisition | 977,566 | 103,406 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Dudum Andrew | director | Gift | 463,289 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Option exercise | 4,938 | 269,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Option exercise | 4,938 | 80,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Option exercise | 9,388 | 273,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Option exercise | 9,388 | 85,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Elshenawy Mohamed | director | Withheld for tax | 95,798 | 193,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Dudum Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 78,859 | 1,033,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chi Michael | officer | Withheld for tax | 47,702 | 470,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Withheld for tax | 36,437 | 264,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,500 | 339,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Autor Deborah M. | director | Withheld for tax | 16,147 | 65,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Carroll Patrick Harrison | director | Withheld for tax | 10,201 | 197,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Becklund Irene | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,490 | 13,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Option exercise | 11,482 | 114,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Becklund Irene | officer | Option exercise | 4,066 | 8,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chi Michael | officer | Option exercise | 23,514 | 329,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Option exercise | 22,988 | 137,929 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Carroll Patrick Harrison | director | Option exercise | 8,149 | 8,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Option exercise | 11,757 | 164,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Option exercise | 12,099 | 72,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Option exercise | 6,182 | 61,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Okupe Oluyemi | officer | Option exercise | 18,335 | 36,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Carroll Patrick Harrison | director | Option exercise | 4,839 | 29,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | WELLS DAVID B | director | Option exercise | 778 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Schultz Kare | director | Option exercise | 6,623 | 6,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Becklund Irene | officer | Option exercise | 3,880 | 54,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Becklund Irene | officer | Option exercise | 4,345 | 26,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chi Michael | officer | Option exercise | 16,496 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Elshenawy Mohamed | director | Option exercise | 23,514 | 329,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Elshenawy Mohamed | director | Option exercise | 64,771 | 712,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Dudum Andrew | director | Option exercise | 25,865 | 362,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Dudum Andrew | director | Option exercise | 35,447 | 70,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Dudum Andrew | director | Option exercise | 19,151 | 191,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Payne Christopher D | director | Option exercise | 545 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Boughton Soleil | officer | Option exercise | 12,223 | 24,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Elshenawy Mohamed | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 1,100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Chi Michael | officer | Option exercise | 16,297 | 32,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Carroll Patrick Harrison | director | Option exercise | 260 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Becklund Irene | officer | Option exercise | 1,394 | 13,928 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.