HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $264.02 · now $264.02 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, HII has typically landed between $233.06 and $299.88 — a range of −11.7% to +13.6% from the issuance price $264.02.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,881 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-03-22 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($264.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HII has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $264.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$233.06worst · -11.7%$299.88best · +13.6%
  • now $264.02 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $266.61 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $252.26–$280.96
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $233.06–$299.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,881 windows spanning 2011-03-22 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−37.1%−37.1%+0.0%
2020-02-21−34.5%−34.5%+0.0%
2020-02-14−34.3%−36.1%+0.0%
3 best
2025-12-18+31.0%+0.0%+32.0%
2025-02-14+30.3%+0.0%+30.3%
2025-12-16+30.3%−1.7%+30.3%

3,881 overlapping windows · 2011-03-22 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$11.3B
market cap
$15.37
EPS (TTM)
18.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$12.5B
'20'25
Net income$605M
'20'25
Free cash flow$794M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.62
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $264.02$219.46$865.59
  • DCF (intrinsic)$821.03
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$471.14
  • Analyst target · range $325.00–$419.00$337.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$264.02

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
80%
+4.5%
n=15
Feb
73%
+4.5%
n=15
Mar
40%
+1.3%
n=15
Apr
50%
+0.8%
n=16
May
31%
−3.1%
n=16
Jun
44%
+0.1%
n=16
Jul
63%
+4.4%
n=16
Aug
50%
−1.3%
n=16
Sep
44%
−2.4%
n=16
Oct
87%
+3.8%
n=15
Nov
67%
+4.1%
n=15
Dec
53%
+1.8%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$452$2622026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — Kastner Christopher D2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $241K — Harker Victoria D2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Hughes Edmond E. Jr.2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Stiehle Thomas E.2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Boudreaux Chad N.2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $737K — Chewning Eric D.2026-03-02: 2 insider sales, $2.8M — Green Edgar A III, Schuck Nicolas G2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $247K — Boudreaux Chad N.2025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $268K — Hughes Edmond E. Jr.2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $4.8M — Kastner Christopher D2025-11-04: 2 insider sales, $463K — Harker Victoria D, Schuck Nicolas G2025-08-29: 1 insider purchase, $955K — Stanage Nick L2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $955K2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.4M2025-11: 5 open-market sales, $5.8M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $7.4M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $4.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kastner Christopher D — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Harker Victoria D — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hughes Edmond E. Jr. — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Stiehle Thomas E. — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Boudreaux Chad N. — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Chewning Eric D. — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Green Edgar A III — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Schuck Nicolas G — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Boudreaux Chad N. — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hughes Edmond E. Jr. — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kastner Christopher D — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Harker Victoria D — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schuck Nicolas G — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Stanage Nick L — Purchase on 2025-08-29, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Kastner Christopher DdirectorSale13,070 @ $324.92$4.2M−53.8% of holding−13.7%not yet — horizon still open11,224Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07Harker Victoria DdirectorSale723 @ $333.17$241K−24.4% of holding−10.4%not yet — horizon still open2,236Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28Hughes Edmond E. Jr.officerSale3,500 @ $319.58$1.1M−29.4% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open8,391Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06Stiehle Thomas E.officerSale4,500 @ $430.54$1.9M−15.3% of holding−4.6%−48.2%24,954Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-05Boudreaux Chad N.officerSale4,400 @ $422.45$1.9M−17.8% of holding−0.2%−44.8%20,360Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Chewning Eric D.officerSale1,700 @ $433.44$737K−46.6% of holding−5.2%−45.9%1,949Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Green Edgar A IIIofficerSale4,448 @ $457.74$2.0M−38.2% of holding−11.3%−47.9%7,210Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Schuck Nicolas GofficerSale1,720 @ $457.39$787K−43.5% of holding−11.3%−47.9%2,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-26Boudreaux Chad N.officerSale787 @ $314.17$247K−3.7% of holding+9.0%−16.8%20,441Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-20Hughes Edmond E. Jr.officerSale850 @ $315.44$268K−8.9% of holding+12.4%−8.5%8,731Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Kastner Christopher DdirectorSale15,000 @ $321.06$4.8M−18.0% of holding+3.5%−5.4%68,139Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-04Harker Victoria DdirectorSale1,000 @ $316.61$317K−28.4% of holding−0.9%−8.6%2,523Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-04Schuck Nicolas GofficerSale466 @ $314.36$146K−16.1% of holding−0.9%−8.6%2,418Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-29Stanage Nick LdirectorPurchase3,500 @ $272.78$955Kownership Δ n/a+2.8%+57.8%3,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-05Harker Victoria DdirectorSale1,000 @ $268.63$269K−22.8% of holding−3.2%+44.0%3,379Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04Green Edgar A IIIofficerSale4,207 @ $265.64$1.1M−37.4% of holding−0.1%+53.4%7,050Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03Boudreaux Chad N.officerSale1,965 @ $228.94$450K−8.5% of holding+5.4%+21.0%21,228Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07Hughes Edmond E. Jr.officerSale1,300 @ $231.91$301K−11.9% of holding−7.8%+13.2%9,581Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06KELLY ANASTASI DdirectorSale1,960 @ $232.58$456K−100.0% of holding−9.0%+15.6%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Wilkinson Kara R.officerAward / grant163,306Form 4
2026-09-11O'Sullivan Stephanie L.directorAward / grant214,233Form 4
2026-09-11Faller Craig S.directorAward / grant102,057Form 4
2026-09-11Harker Victoria DdirectorAward / grant397,851Form 4
2026-09-11Jimenez Frank RdirectorAward / grant173,480Form 4
2026-09-11Kastner Christopher DdirectorAward / grant9218,730Form 4
2026-09-11Stanage Nick LdirectorAward / grant1259Form 4
2026-09-11Blanchette Brian D.officerAward / grant152,984Form 4
2026-09-11Schuck Nicolas GofficerAward / grant51,039Form 4
2026-09-11Collins Augustus LdirectorAward / grant5511,120Form 4
2026-09-11Chewning Eric D.officerAward / grant112,234Form 4
2026-09-11Boudreaux Chad N.officerAward / grant183,595Form 4
2026-09-11Hughes Edmond E. Jr.officerAward / grant112,234Form 4
2026-09-11DENAULT LEO PdirectorAward / grant234,767Form 4
2026-09-11SCHIEVELBEIN THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant11523,461Form 4
2026-09-11Stiehle Thomas E.officerAward / grant204,010Form 4
2026-09-11DONALD KIRKLAND HdirectorAward / grant357,055Form 4
2026-09-11Green Edgar A IIIofficerAward / grant163,306Form 4
2026-09-11McKibben Tracy BdirectorAward / grant295,813Form 4
2026-07-01SCHIEVELBEIN THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant17423,346Form 4
2026-07-01Stanage Nick LdirectorAward / grant1743,936Form 4
2026-07-01Faller Craig S.directorAward / grant1742,047Form 4
2026-07-01DENAULT LEO PdirectorAward / grant1744,744Form 4
2026-07-01McKibben Tracy BdirectorAward / grant1745,785Form 4
2026-07-01DONALD KIRKLAND HdirectorAward / grant1747,021Form 4
2026-07-01Jimenez Frank RdirectorAward / grant1743,463Form 4
2026-07-01Collins Augustus LdirectorAward / grant17411,066Form 4
2026-07-01Harker Victoria DdirectorAward / grant1742,959Form 4
2026-07-01O'Sullivan Stephanie L.directorAward / grant1744,213Form 4
2026-06-30DENAULT LEO PdirectorAward / grant1454,570Form 4
2026-06-12DONALD KIRKLAND HdirectorAward / grant326,847Form 4
2026-06-12Schuck Nicolas GofficerAward / grant51,034Form 4
2026-06-12O'Sullivan Stephanie L.directorAward / grant194,039Form 4
2026-06-12McKibben Tracy BdirectorAward / grant265,611Form 4
2026-06-12Boudreaux Chad N.officerAward / grant173,577Form 4
2026-06-12Harker Victoria DdirectorAward / grant367,813Form 4
2026-06-12Kastner Christopher DdirectorAward / grant8618,638Form 4
2026-06-12Jimenez Frank RdirectorAward / grant153,289Form 4
2026-06-12SCHIEVELBEIN THOMAS CdirectorAward / grant10723,172Form 4
2026-06-12Green Edgar A IIIofficerAward / grant153,290Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Brian BabinHousesale2026-05-182026-05-05$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-03-122025-02-12$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-04-182022-03-02$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-04-182022-03-02$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2022-03-172022-02-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2022-03-172022-02-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-01-272021-12-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2022-01-272021-12-14$1–15K
Dwight EvansHousesale2021-02-092020-12-30$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2021-01-252020-12-16$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2021-01-252020-12-16$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2020-11-302020-10-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2020-11-302020-10-15$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2020-10-162020-09-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.