HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $134.94 · now $134.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HIG has typically landed between $124.79 and $147.84 — a range of −7.5% to +9.6% from the issuance price $134.94.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($134.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HIG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $134.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$124.79worst · -7.5%$147.84best · +9.6%
  • now $134.94 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $136.95 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $131.95–$141.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $124.79–$147.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-23−76.3%−76.3%+16.2%
2008-10-22−75.4%−75.4%+7.1%
2008-10-21−75.0%−75.0%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-21+232.9%+0.0%+270.6%
2008-11-20+200.5%−11.1%+229.6%
2008-12-04+173.0%+0.0%+173.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$38.5B
market cap
$15.37
EPS (TTM)
9.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-26
next earnings
Revenue$28.3B
'20'25
Net income$3.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr13.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr20.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.23
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $134.94$125.18$266.72
  • DCF (intrinsic)$256.96
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$251.79
  • Analyst target · range $135.00–$165.00$154.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$134.94

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
68%
−1.2%
n=19
Mar
68%
+3.8%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.2%
n=19
May
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Jul
53%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Sep
58%
−0.5%
n=19
Oct
61%
−1.6%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+6.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$146$1212026-05-27: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — TOOKER ADIN M2026-03-10: 2 insider sales, $5.6M — Rodden Lori A …2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $99K — Niderno Allison G2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $53K — Niderno Allison G2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — TOOKER ADIN M2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $806K — Rodden Lori A2026-02-04: 2 insider sales, $14.2M — Swift Christopher …2026-02-02: 6 insider sales, $27.5M — Swift Christopher …2026-01-02: 2 insider sales, $4.8M — Costello Beth Ann …2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $928K — TOOKER ADIN M2025-10-29: 1 insider sale, $960K — Rodden Lori A2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $284K — Hunt Donald Christian2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $5.3M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $284K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $960K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $928K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $4.8M2026-02: 11 open-market sales, $43.8M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $5.7M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer TOOKER ADIN M — Sale on 2026-05-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rodden Lori A — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rodden Lori A — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Niderno Allison G — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Niderno Allison G — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer TOOKER ADIN M — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rodden Lori A — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Swift Christopher — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Costello Beth Ann — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Costello Beth Ann — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer TOOKER ADIN M — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Rodden Lori A — Sale on 2025-10-29, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hunt Donald Christian — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-27TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale8,895 @ $135.13$1.2M−18.9% of holding+4.8%not yet — horizon still open38,208Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Rodden Lori AofficerSale30,193 @ $138.04$4.2M−54.3% of holding+1.6%−13.2%25,392Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Rodden Lori AofficerSale10,500 @ $138.06$1.4M−15.9% of holding+1.6%−13.2%55,585Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04Niderno Allison GofficerSale702 @ $140.51$99K−53.0% of holding−0.2%−15.3%622Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Niderno Allison GofficerSale375 @ $141.97$53K−37.6% of holding+2.0%−14.3%622Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale8,307 @ $140.54$1.2M−17.9% of holding+2.7%−11.5%38,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Rodden Lori AofficerSale5,681 @ $141.83$806K−23.6% of holding−1.7%−15.1%18,400Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Swift ChristopherdirectorSale81,192 @ $140.68$11.4M−29.4% of holding+1.3%−9.1%194,817Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Swift ChristopherdirectorSale19,778 @ $141.19$2.8M−6.7% of holding+1.3%−9.1%276,009Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale73,537 @ $136.58$10.0M−27.4% of holding+5.6%−7.0%194,817Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale73,390 @ $136.57$10.0M−21.5% of holding+5.6%−7.0%268,354Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale19,834 @ $135.56$2.7M−5.5% of holding+5.6%−7.0%341,744Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale19,734 @ $135.54$2.7M−5.2% of holding+5.6%−7.0%361,578Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale7,845 @ $137.09$1.1M−2.0% of holding+5.6%−7.0%381,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale7,598 @ $137.08$1.0M−1.9% of holding+5.6%−7.0%389,157Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-02Costello Beth AnnofficerSale23,971 @ $136.37$3.3M−23.6% of holding+0.0%−7.3%77,574Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-02Costello Beth AnnofficerSale11,368 @ $137.04$1.6M−10.1% of holding+0.0%−7.3%101,545Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-26TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale6,731 @ $137.90$928K−17.5% of holding−0.0%−18.9%31,721Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-29Rodden Lori AofficerSale7,841 @ $122.41$960K−29.9% of holding+12.6%+6.5%18,400Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-05Hunt Donald ChristianofficerSale2,124 @ $133.87$284K−100.0% of holding−3.4%+0.3%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-04Costello Beth AnnofficerSale35,340 @ $123.50$4.4M−31.3% of holding+3.9%+0.7%77,574Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-01Rodden Lori AofficerSale7,710 @ $123.11$949K−29.5% of holding+4.7%−0.0%18,400Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Swift ChristopherdirectorSale54,898 @ $131.09$7.2M−20.6% of holding−4.4%−10.8%211,082Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-16Swift ChristopherdirectorSale43,262 @ $130.53$5.6M−14.0% of holding−4.4%−10.8%265,980Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-15Paiano Robert WofficerSale9,098 @ $128.04$1.2M−28.7% of holding−4.3%−10.2%22,580Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale4,303 @ $128.01$551K−11.9% of holding−4.3%−10.2%31,721Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale4,005 @ $129.26$518K−10.0% of holding−4.3%−10.2%36,024Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale3,583 @ $128.00$459K−8.2% of holding−4.3%−10.2%40,029Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale3,563 @ $128.02$456K−7.6% of holding−4.3%−10.2%43,612Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale3,281 @ $129.28$424K−6.5% of holding−4.3%−10.2%47,175Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale3,168 @ $129.28$410K−5.9% of holding−4.3%−10.2%50,456Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale22,930 @ $126.01$2.9M−49.3% of holding−3.6%−22.3%23,538Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale15,235 @ $125.97$1.9M−24.7% of holding−3.6%−22.3%46,468Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale5,223 @ $126.06$658K−7.8% of holding−3.6%−22.3%61,703Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale3,427 @ $124.77$428K−4.9% of holding−3.6%−22.3%66,926Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale2,806 @ $126.38$355K−3.8% of holding−3.6%−22.3%70,353Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale2,205 @ $126.40$279K−2.9% of holding−3.6%−22.3%73,159Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale2,087 @ $124.66$260K−2.7% of holding−3.6%−22.3%75,364Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Stepnowski AmyofficerSale738 @ $124.82$92K−0.9% of holding−3.6%−22.3%77,451Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale96,816 @ $125.50$12.2M−31.4% of holding−1.3%−21.4%211,082Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-28Niderno Allison GofficerSale1,086 @ $119.42$130K−63.6% of holding+0.6%−20.5%622Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-03Swift ChristopherdirectorSale200 @ $125.00$25K−0.1% of holding−3.2%−16.4%211,082Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-02Swift ChristopherdirectorSale1,144 @ $125.00$143K−0.5% of holding+0.2%−11.9%211,082Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Swift ChristopherdirectorSale97,561 @ $120.39$11.7M−31.6% of holding+2.2%−8.6%211,082Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-17Swift ChristopherdirectorSale500 @ $121.01$61K−0.2% of holding+2.2%−8.6%308,643Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Paiano Robert WofficerSale13,138 @ $117.20$1.5M−29.3% of holding+0.3%−5.1%31,678Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04Swift ChristopherdirectorSale100 @ $120.00$12K−0.0% of holding+8.6%+2.5%211,082Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale6,732 @ $112.61$758K−15.5% of holding+13.8%+12.6%36,817Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale6,664 @ $112.58$750K−13.3% of holding+13.8%+12.6%43,549Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18TOOKER ADIN MofficerSale200 @ $112.97$23K−0.4% of holding+13.8%+12.6%50,213Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

189 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Swift ChristopherdirectorGift35,08841,569Form 4
2026-07-27De Shon Larry DdirectorAward / grant1,3561,356Form 4
2026-07-27Winter Matthew EdirectorAward / grant1,3567,578Form 4
2026-07-27FETTER TREVORdirectorAward / grant1,35661,537Form 4
2026-07-27Dominguez CarlosdirectorAward / grant1,35616,068Form 4
2026-07-27Bartlett Thomas AdirectorAward / grant1,3561,356Form 4
2026-07-27Ruesterholz Virginia PdirectorAward / grant1,35617,097Form 4
2026-07-27Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorAward / grant1,3561,356Form 4
2026-07-27Rippert AnnettedirectorAward / grant1,3564,526Form 4
2026-07-27Winters Kathleen AdirectorAward / grant1,3564,692Form 4
2026-07-27JAMES DONNAdirectorAward / grant1,35611,885Form 4
2026-07-27FETTER TREVORdirectorAward / grant1,17762,714Form 4
2026-07-27Dominguez CarlosdirectorAward / grant82116,889Form 4
2026-05-27TOOKER ADIN MofficerOption exercise8,89547,103Form 4
2026-05-27TOOKER ADIN MofficerOption exercise8,89517,792Form 4
2026-05-04Pannala ShekarofficerWithheld for tax7,0748,546Form 4
2026-04-06Chhabra PrateekofficerWithheld for tax615,046Form 4
2026-04-06Hunt Donald ChristianofficerWithheld for tax62,549Form 4
2026-04-06Niderno Allison GofficerWithheld for tax3625Form 4
2026-03-10Rodden Lori AofficerOption exercise30,19355,585Form 4
2026-03-10Rodden Lori AofficerOption exercise10,50066,085Form 4
2026-03-10Rodden Lori AofficerOption exercise30,1930Form 4
2026-03-10Rodden Lori AofficerOption exercise10,50015,579Form 4
2026-03-02Hunt Donald ChristianofficerWithheld for tax1,2782,543Form 4
2026-03-02Chhabra PrateekofficerWithheld for tax1,17015,041Form 4
2026-03-02Niderno Allison GofficerWithheld for tax6211,324Form 4
2026-02-25TOOKER ADIN MofficerOption exercise8,30746,515Form 4
2026-02-25TOOKER ADIN MofficerOption exercise8,3078,307Form 4
2026-02-24Hunt Donald ChristianofficerAward / grant8,89411,799Form 4
2026-02-24Rodden Lori AofficerAward / grant8,8948,894Form 4
2026-02-24Niderno Allison GofficerAward / grant5513,248Form 4
2026-02-24TOOKER ADIN MofficerAward / grant28,98228,982Form 4
2026-02-24Chhabra PrateekofficerAward / grant4,0954,095Form 4
2026-02-24Pannala ShekarofficerAward / grant10,08110,081Form 4
2026-02-24Costello Beth AnnofficerAward / grant22,05122,051Form 4
2026-02-24Hunt Donald ChristianofficerAward / grant10,08110,081Form 4
2026-02-24Rodden Lori AofficerAward / grant9,1369,136Form 4
2026-02-24Swift ChristopherdirectorAward / grant102,382102,382Form 4
2026-02-24Stepnowski AmyofficerAward / grant13,86113,861Form 4
2026-02-18Swift ChristopherdirectorWithheld for tax57,640261,560Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122025-06-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-11-082024-10-11$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousesale2024-07-172024-07-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-02-052024-01-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-02$1–15K
Robert J. WittmanHousesale2023-10-192023-09-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-07-112023-07-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-07-112023-06-14$1–15K
Zoe LofgrenHousesale2023-06-062023-05-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-10-072022-09-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.