HGV · TickerCove

HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Travel Lodgingas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.11 · now $37.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HGV has typically landed between $31.56 and $43.47 — a range of −15.0% to +17.1% from the issuance price $37.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,417 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-01-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$37.11 · 1% of range

$36.99 low$54.69 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 13.5%

−15.0%worst (p90)+17.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HGV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $37.11 (+0.0%)
typical $36.92 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $34.41–$39.42
90% range $31.56–$43.47

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,417 windows spanning 2017-01-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−67.4%	−67.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−63.9%	−67.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−59.5%	−66.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+82.1%	+0.0%	+82.1%
2020-03-19	+59.3%	+0.0%	+65.9%
2020-05-07	+48.0%	−2.1%	+48.0%

2,417 overlapping windows · 2017-01-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

67%

+4.1%

n=9

Feb

70%

+3.8%

n=10

Mar

20%

−8.1%

n=10

Apr

50%

+5.5%

n=10

May

50%

+0.7%

n=10

Jun

50%

−1.4%

n=10

Jul

70%

+2.6%

n=10

Aug

50%

−0.7%

n=10

Sep

30%

−4.9%

n=10

Oct

56%

+0.9%

n=9

Nov

56%

+7.9%

n=9

Dec

56%

+1.2%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-06	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Sale	20,691 @ $46.90	$970K	−30.2% of holding	−9.7%	not yet — horizon still open	47,924	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-28	Wang Mark D	director	Sale	190,813 @ $51.93	$9.9M	−17.4% of holding	+5.0%	not yet — horizon still open	904,241	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-21	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Sale	21,502 @ $48.00	$1.0M	−21.2% of holding	+7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	80,020	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-21	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Sale	11,405 @ $47.03	$536K	−14.3% of holding	+7.9%	not yet — horizon still open	68,615	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-19	Hernandez Carlos	officer	Sale	5,595 @ $46.69	$261K	−28.4% of holding	+12.4%	not yet — horizon still open	14,080	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Hernandez Carlos	officer	Sale	2,867 @ $39.99	$115K	−20.2% of holding	+3.4%	+2.9%	11,330	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-03	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Sale	30,426 @ $41.81	$1.3M	−33.5% of holding	+2.4%	+8.2%	60,270	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	Wang Mark D	director	Sale	46,364 @ $47.34	$2.2M	−5.5% of holding	−10.5%	−11.5%	801,681	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Sale	51,000 @ $38.78	$2.0M	−45.8% of holding	−3.2%	−17.5%	60,270	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

97 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-02	Duffy Christine Marie	director	Award / grant	3,190	3,190	Form 4
2026-06-22	Apollo Principal Holdings A GP, Ltd.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	750,000	12,495,825	Form 4
2026-06-04	Apollo Principal Holdings A GP, Ltd.	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	5,000,000	13,245,825	Form 4
2026-05-28	Wang Mark D	director	Option exercise	190,813	1,095,054	Form 4
2026-05-28	Wang Mark D	director	Option exercise	190,813	0	Form 4
2026-05-15	Mathewes Daniel Jason	officer	Withheld for tax	601	213,932	Form 4
2026-05-06	Potter Leonard	director	Award / grant	4,114	104,575	Form 4
2026-05-06	PATSLEY PAMELA H	director	Award / grant	4,114	44,575	Form 4
2026-05-06	MANDEL GAIL	director	Award / grant	4,114	13,907	Form 4
2026-05-06	Bacon Brenda J	director	Award / grant	4,114	50,000	Form 4
2026-05-06	WHETSELL PAUL W	director	Award / grant	4,114	49,575	Form 4
2026-05-06	Lazarus Mark H	director	Award / grant	4,114	44,575	Form 4
2026-04-01	Tonkin Dusty	officer	Withheld for tax	1,929	95,320	Form 4
2026-04-01	Mathewes Daniel Jason	officer	Withheld for tax	811	214,533	Form 4
2026-03-10	Cornejo Maria Pia	officer	Award / grant	14,194	26,031	Form 4
2026-03-10	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Award / grant	25,875	101,522	Form 4
2026-03-10	GURNIK GORDON	officer	Award / grant	28,980	231,155	Form 4
2026-03-10	Wang Mark D	director	Award / grant	73,456	904,241	Form 4
2026-03-10	Mathewes Daniel Jason	officer	Award / grant	32,085	215,344	Form 4
2026-03-10	Tonkin Dusty	officer	Award / grant	34,066	97,249	Form 4
2026-03-10	Hernandez Carlos	officer	Award / grant	7,540	19,675	Form 4
2026-03-06	Wang Mark D	director	Withheld for tax	5,522	830,785	Form 4
2026-03-06	Mathewes Daniel Jason	officer	Withheld for tax	2,280	183,259	Form 4
2026-03-06	GURNIK GORDON	officer	Withheld for tax	2,169	202,175	Form 4
2026-03-06	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,318	75,647	Form 4
2026-03-06	Hernandez Carlos	officer	Withheld for tax	368	12,135	Form 4
2026-03-05	Wang Mark D	director	Withheld for tax	6,679	836,307	Form 4
2026-03-05	Mathewes Daniel Jason	officer	Withheld for tax	2,527	185,539	Form 4
2026-03-05	GURNIK GORDON	officer	Withheld for tax	2,479	204,344	Form 4
2026-03-05	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,879	76,965	Form 4
2026-03-05	Hernandez Carlos	officer	Withheld for tax	462	12,503	Form 4
2026-03-04	Wang Mark D	director	Withheld for tax	11,124	842,986	Form 4
2026-03-04	GURNIK GORDON	officer	Withheld for tax	3,919	206,823	Form 4
2026-03-04	Corbin Charles R. Jr.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,919	78,844	Form 4
2026-03-04	Tonkin Dusty	officer	Withheld for tax	3,743	63,183	Form 4
2026-03-04	Mathewes Daniel Jason	officer	Withheld for tax	3,047	188,066	Form 4
2026-03-04	Hernandez Carlos	officer	Withheld for tax	1,056	12,965	Form 4
2026-02-20	Wang Mark D	director	Withheld for tax	15,722	854,110	Form 4
2026-02-20	Wang Mark D	director	Withheld for tax	12,803	829,879	Form 4
2026-02-20	Mathewes Daniel Jason	officer	Withheld for tax	8,811	191,113	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i