Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.90 · now $13.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HGTY has typically landed between $11.69 and $16.33 — a range of −15.9% to +17.5% from the issuance price $13.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,309 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HGTY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.99 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.08–$14.9
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.69–$16.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,309 windows spanning 2021-06-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-07 | −29.4% | −29.4% | +2.1% |
| 2022-03-23 | −29.3% | −29.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-03-03 | −29.0% | −30.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-11-11 | +85.2% | −1.7% | +85.2% |
| 2021-11-10 | +82.0% | −2.2% | +82.0% |
| 2021-11-12 | +65.5% | −1.6% | +85.4% |
1,309 overlapping windows · 2021-06-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
80%
+2.5%
n=5
Feb
60%
+0.6%
n=5
Mar
20%
−9.1%
n=5
Apr
20%
−1.1%
n=5
May
80%
+4.5%
n=5
Jun
100%
+7.9%
n=5
Jul
33%
−0.7%
n=6
Aug
83%
+6.8%
n=6
Sep
50%
−5.9%
n=6
Oct
40%
−1.1%
n=5
Nov
100%
+7.9%
n=5
Dec
40%
+1.2%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,387,500 @ $11.47 | $15.9M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,250,000 @ $11.47 | $106.1M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | DELANEY KEVIN M | officer | Sale | 3,113 @ $12.25 | $38K | −3.6% of holding | −8.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,972 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | DELANEY KEVIN M | officer | Sale | 9,440 @ $12.10 | $114K | −9.5% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | DELANEY KEVIN M | officer | Sale | 905 @ $12.01 | $11K | −0.9% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Kuczinski Anthony J | director | Purchase | 9,500 @ $10.46 | $99K | +16.1% of holding | +4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,648 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Harris Laurie | director | Sale | 5,531 @ $11.01 | $61K | −13.1% of holding | −20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Kuczinski Anthony J | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $9.50 | $38K | +9.2% of holding | +7.7% | +23.1% | 47,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Kuczinski Anthony J | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $10.72 | $161K | +53.0% of holding | +4.1% | +11.3% | 43,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $12.41 | $621K | −100.0% of holding | −7.1% | −10.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $12.55 | $628K | −100.0% of holding | −8.3% | −20.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $12.86 | $643K | −100.0% of holding | −8.1% | −18.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 1,350 @ $13.25 | $18K | −100.0% of holding | −7.8% | −15.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 24,247 @ $13.08 | $317K | −100.0% of holding | −3.8% | −16.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 10,883 @ $12.85 | $140K | −100.0% of holding | −0.6% | −14.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 164,870 @ $12.79 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | −13.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $12.80 | $1.3M | −100.0% of holding | −3.5% | −26.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 15,270 @ $11.12 | $170K | −1.7% of holding | +21.3% | −14.3% | 898,097 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-24 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 14,731 @ $11.16 | $164K | −1.6% of holding | +20.7% | −9.2% | 913,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-23 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $11.12 | $167K | −1.6% of holding | +21.1% | −11.2% | 928,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 9,495 @ $11.18 | $106K | −1.0% of holding | +20.6% | −12.2% | 943,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 12,219 @ $11.19 | $137K | −1.3% of holding | +19.2% | −11.8% | 952,593 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-20 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 8,286 @ $11.20 | $93K | −0.9% of holding | +22.6% | −12.3% | 964,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 14,644 @ $11.33 | $166K | −1.5% of holding | +17.9% | −11.4% | 973,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 23,392 @ $11.64 | $272K | −2.3% of holding | +18.0% | −13.0% | 987,742 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-15 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 12,391 @ $12.14 | $150K | −1.2% of holding | +11.3% | −18.3% | 1,011,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 55,524 @ $12.16 | $675K | −5.1% of holding | +8.8% | −20.7% | 1,023,525 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 22,629 @ $12.00 | $272K | −2.1% of holding | −3.2% | −9.7% | 1,079,049 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 6,861 @ $11.90 | $82K | −0.6% of holding | −5.7% | −8.9% | 1,101,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 3,024 @ $12.01 | $36K | −0.3% of holding | −8.4% | −7.3% | 1,108,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-02 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 21,314 @ $11.98 | $255K | −1.9% of holding | −9.4% | −7.8% | 1,111,563 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 18,372 @ $12.06 | $222K | −1.6% of holding | −8.1% | −6.9% | 1,132,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-30 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 30,187 @ $11.96 | $361K | −2.6% of holding | −14.1% | −10.4% | 1,151,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 5,506 @ $11.77 | $65K | −0.5% of holding | −9.2% | −8.8% | 1,181,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 34,447 @ $12.38 | $426K | −2.8% of holding | −9.2% | −12.7% | 1,186,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 17,622 @ $12.46 | $220K | −1.4% of holding | −3.1% | −17.4% | 1,221,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 11,433 @ $12.79 | $146K | −0.9% of holding | −3.7% | −19.3% | 1,239,011 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 38,085 @ $12.01 | $457K | −3.0% of holding | −4.8% | −24.8% | 1,250,444 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | Kuczinski Anthony J | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $11.62 | $12K | +3.7% of holding | −1.4% | −20.8% | 28,277 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 41,699 @ $11.31 | $472K | −3.1% of holding | −1.1% | −15.7% | 1,288,529 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 22,295 @ $11.19 | $249K | −1.6% of holding | +1.5% | −11.4% | 1,330,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 62,500 @ $11.23 | $702K | −4.4% of holding | +1.6% | −13.6% | 1,352,523 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 28,736 @ $11.21 | $322K | −2.0% of holding | +1.8% | −8.7% | 1,415,023 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-27 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 28,704 @ $11.08 | $318K | −1.9% of holding | +5.2% | −1.3% | 1,443,759 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 9,844 @ $10.76 | $106K | −0.7% of holding | +10.0% | +4.0% | 1,472,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 7,668 @ $10.87 | $83K | −0.5% of holding | +9.6% | −1.2% | 1,482,307 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 6,081 @ $10.92 | $66K | −0.4% of holding | +9.4% | −2.9% | 1,489,975 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 7,356 @ $10.77 | $79K | −0.5% of holding | +9.0% | −0.5% | 1,496,056 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,236,750 @ $8.92 | $11.0M | −100.0% of holding | +8.7% | −0.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 218,250 @ $8.92 | $1.9M | −12.7% of holding | +8.7% | −0.1% | 1,503,412 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-11 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 1,455,000 @ $8.92 | $13.0M | −45.8% of holding | +11.9% | +0.8% | 1,721,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,245,000 @ $8.92 | $73.5M | −100.0% of holding | +26.7% | +25.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $10.85 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | −0.9% | +2.5% | 3,176,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 24,728 @ $10.77 | $266K | −0.8% of holding | −0.1% | +6.9% | 3,180,662 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 110,600 @ $10.46 | $1.2M | −3.3% of holding | +1.1% | +9.1% | 3,205,390 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-23 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 40,393 @ $10.19 | $412K | −1.2% of holding | +4.6% | +15.4% | 3,315,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 31,869 @ $10.19 | $325K | −0.9% of holding | +6.4% | +16.2% | 3,356,383 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 16,897 @ $10.12 | $171K | −0.5% of holding | +6.7% | +17.0% | 3,388,252 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-18 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 36,174 @ $10.12 | $366K | −1.1% of holding | +6.2% | +14.5% | 3,405,149 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | KAUFFMAN ROBERT I | director | Sale | 17,762 @ $10.04 | $178K | −0.5% of holding | +9.0% | +16.3% | 3,441,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 1,387,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 155,914,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 155,914,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 1,387,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 1,387,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 1,387,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 155,914,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 1,387,500 | 155,914,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MARKEL GROUP INC. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 7,836,411 | 10,944,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MARKEL GROUP INC. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 7,836,411 | 67,163,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MARKEL GROUP INC. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 7,836,411 | 10,944,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MARKEL GROUP INC. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 7,836,411 | 67,163,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MARKEL GROUP INC. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 7,836,411 | 10,944,411 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | MARKEL GROUP INC. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 7,836,411 | 67,163,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 9,250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 9,250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 157,302,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 9,250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 157,302,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 157,302,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 9,250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Hagerty Holding Corp. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 9,250,000 | 157,302,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Briglia Jeffrey Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,892 | 157,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | DELANEY KEVIN M | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,525 | 87,085 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bjornstad Henrik Waersted | director | Award / grant | 10,114 | 10,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chafey Diana | officer | Award / grant | 1,165 | 77,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | McClymont Patrick | director | Award / grant | 962 | 336,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Hagerty McKeel | director | Withheld for tax | 82,868 | 1,037,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McClymont Patrick | director | Withheld for tax | 32,388 | 335,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Champagne Collette | officer | Withheld for tax | 28,278 | 270,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Page Russell Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,146 | 131,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Briglia Jeffrey Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,899 | 162,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ahn Kenneth | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,627 | 127,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | DELANEY KEVIN M | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,456 | 99,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Chafey Diana | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,833 | 75,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Harbert Randall Houston | director | Award / grant | 11,871 | 45,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Page Russell Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 30,865 | 142,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kuczinski Anthony J | director | Award / grant | 11,871 | 59,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McClymont Patrick | director | Award / grant | 54,013 | 368,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kay Sabrina | director | Award / grant | 11,871 | 54,173 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.