HGHamilton Insurance Group, Ltd.Financial Services · Insurance - Reinsuranceas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $35.17 · now $35.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HG has typically landed between $31.77 and $40.85 — a range of −9.7% to +16.1% from the issuance price $35.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

691 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-11-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($35.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $35.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$31.77worst · -9.7%$40.85best · +16.1%
  • now $35.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $35.92 (+2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.05–$37.79
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.77–$40.85
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 691 windows spanning 2023-11-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-20−15.4%−17.5%+2.0%
2025-03-25−15.4%−18.5%+0.7%
2025-03-27−14.8%−19.1%+0.0%
3 best
2024-04-10+29.5%+0.0%+29.5%
2024-04-30+28.0%+0.0%+28.0%
2024-05-01+26.1%+0.0%+27.1%

691 overlapping windows · 2023-11-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+0.3%
n=3
Feb
67%
+1.9%
n=3
Mar
100%
+3.4%
n=3
Apr
33%
−1.1%
n=3
May
67%
+11.7%
n=3
Jun
33%
+3.5%
n=3
Jul
67%
+3.3%
n=3
Aug
67%
+7.0%
n=3
Sep
67%
+0.9%
n=3
Oct
0%
−7.2%
n=2
Nov
100%
+12.4%
n=2
Dec
33%
−0.5%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$37$222026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $989K — Duffin Timothy James2026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $984K — Duffin Timothy James2026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — BROWN DAVID A2026-05-18: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — BROWN DAVID A2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $404K — BROWN DAVID A2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $186K — Levenson Jonathan B.2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $93K — Levenson Jonathan B.2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $338K — Deegan Brian John2026-04-08: 1 insider purchase, $3K — COOPER BRADLEY E2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $481K — Baker Alexander James2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Bernhard Keith Donald2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $456K — Krishnamoorthy Venkatanarayanan2025-08-13: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Graves Megan Jane, Baker Alexander James2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Graves Megan Jane2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $2.9M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.1M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $481K2026-04: 1 open-market purchase, $3K2026-05: 5 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $3.8M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Duffin Timothy James — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Duffin Timothy James — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BROWN DAVID A — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed 5 days after the tradedirector BROWN DAVID A — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BROWN DAVID A — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Levenson Jonathan B. — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Levenson Jonathan B. — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Deegan Brian John — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector COOPER BRADLEY E — Purchase on 2026-04-08, filed 9 days after the tradeofficer Baker Alexander James — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bernhard Keith Donald — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Krishnamoorthy Venkatanarayanan — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Graves Megan Jane — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Baker Alexander James — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Graves Megan Jane — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Duffin Timothy JamesofficerSale28,500 @ $34.69$989K−12.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open194,959Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-10Duffin Timothy JamesofficerSale28,500 @ $34.53$984K−11.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open223,459Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-03BROWN DAVID AdirectorSale50,000 @ $36.12$1.8M−11.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open400,000Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-18BROWN DAVID AdirectorSale37,300 @ $32.16$1.2M−7.7% of holding−1.1%not yet — horizon still open450,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15BROWN DAVID AdirectorSale12,700 @ $31.82$404K−2.5% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open487,300Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13Levenson Jonathan B.officerSale6,075 @ $30.61$186K−13.3% of holding+5.5%not yet — horizon still open39,629Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Levenson Jonathan B.officerSale3,030 @ $30.67$93K−6.2% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open45,704Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Deegan Brian JohnofficerSale11,000 @ $30.69$338K−13.4% of holding−8.9%not yet — horizon still open71,347Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-08COOPER BRADLEY EdirectorPurchase99 @ $31.01$3Kownership Δ n/a−9.5%not yet — horizon still open99Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-11-14Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale18,350 @ $26.19$481K−17.9% of holding+5.2%+21.6%84,136Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05Bernhard Keith DonaldofficerSale47,000 @ $24.37$1.1M−46.6% of holding−1.8%+18.1%53,893Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-15Krishnamoorthy VenkatanarayananofficerSale18,988 @ $24.00$456K−22.7% of holding−2.1%+27.8%64,512Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-13Graves Megan JaneofficerSale50,000 @ $23.75$1.2M−32.3% of holding−0.6%+23.2%104,674Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale6,000 @ $23.79$143K−4.9% of holding−0.6%+23.2%116,338Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12Graves Megan JaneofficerSale50,000 @ $23.27$1.2M−24.4% of holding+1.8%+21.7%154,674Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Daws Adrian JosephofficerSale6,000 @ $22.00$132K−3.1% of holding−10.5%+6.1%190,440Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19Vaughan Therese MdirectorPurchase4,750 @ $21.05$100K+29.4% of holding−2.5%+8.3%20,892Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-16Graves Megan JaneofficerSale25,000 @ $21.02$526K−10.9% of holding−1.7%+10.0%204,674Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-19Daws Adrian JosephofficerSale3,785 @ $21.00$79K−1.9% of holding−4.9%−1.3%199,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14Graves Megan JaneofficerSale53,256 @ $20.06$1.1M−18.8% of holding−4.7%+2.9%229,674Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Bernhard Keith DonaldofficerSale15,000 @ $20.30$305K−12.9% of holding−10.8%+0.2%100,903Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11Daws Adrian JosephofficerSale139 @ $21.00$3K−0.1% of holding−9.9%−4.1%203,708Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07Daws Adrian JosephofficerSale11,076 @ $20.69$229K−5.2% of holding+0.1%+1.5%203,847Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale6,000—−4.7% of holding+8.3%+5.4%122,338Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale6,000—−4.7% of holding+8.3%+5.4%122,338Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale4,000—−4.7% of holding−9.3%+4.1%80,872Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale4,000—−4.7% of holding−9.3%+4.1%80,872Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-26Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale4,000—−4.8% of holding+3.9%+11.2%79,599Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-26Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale4,000—−4.8% of holding+3.9%+11.2%79,599Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale4,000—−4.6% of holding+5.3%+11.6%83,599Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13Krishnamoorthy VenkatanarayananofficerSale2,161—−7.0% of holding+5.3%+11.6%28,523Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13Krishnamoorthy VenkatanarayananofficerSale2,161—−7.0% of holding+5.3%+11.6%28,523Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-13Baker Alexander JamesofficerSale4,000—−4.6% of holding+5.3%+11.6%83,599Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-12Krishnamoorthy VenkatanarayananofficerSale9,681—−24.0% of holding+0.8%+11.0%30,684Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-12Krishnamoorthy VenkatanarayananofficerSale9,681—−24.0% of holding+0.8%+11.0%30,684Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

161 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Albo GiuseppinadirectorGift100,4301,086,245Form 4
2026-08-13Albo GiuseppinadirectorGift100,430100,430Form 4
2026-08-13Albo GiuseppinadirectorGift100,430985,815Form 4
2026-08-13Albo GiuseppinadirectorGift100,4300Form 4
2026-05-05Green Karen AnndirectorWithheld for tax3,3788,738Form 4
2026-05-05Simmons Everard BarclaydirectorAward / grant4,92922,952Form 4
2026-05-05Gauthier John JdirectorAward / grant4,92932,012Form 4
2026-05-05BROWN DAVID AdirectorAward / grant4,929110,308Form 4
2026-05-05Pestcoe MarvindirectorAward / grant4,92968,548Form 4
2026-05-05Patterson Alan NeildirectorAward / grant4,92921,071Form 4
2026-05-05Vaughan Therese MdirectorAward / grant4,92925,821Form 4
2026-05-05Wilson Peter WdirectorAward / grant4,9294,929Form 4
2026-05-05Karna AnudirectorAward / grant4,92922,012Form 4
2026-05-05Green Karen AnndirectorAward / grant4,92912,116Form 4
2026-05-05Priebe DaviddirectorAward / grant4,92912,116Form 4
2026-03-02Albo GiuseppinadirectorWithheld for tax37,8181,105,660Form 4
2026-03-02Howie CraigofficerWithheld for tax11,729249,900Form 4
2026-03-02Daws Adrian JosephofficerWithheld for tax4,760192,486Form 4
2026-03-02Fisher Daniel MarkofficerWithheld for tax2,97095,383Form 4
2026-03-02Levenson Jonathan B.officerWithheld for tax2,51241,664Form 4
2026-03-02Kuchma Anita BreslinofficerWithheld for tax2,19880,080Form 4
2026-03-02Kuchma Anita BreslinofficerAward / grant9,19889,278Form 4
2026-03-02Daws Adrian JosephofficerAward / grant20,000212,486Form 4
2026-03-02Deegan Brian JohnofficerAward / grant11,26082,347Form 4
2026-03-02Baker Alexander JamesofficerAward / grant14,245110,291Form 4
2026-03-02Duffin Timothy JamesofficerAward / grant12,832251,959Form 4
2026-03-02Howie CraigofficerAward / grant32,472282,372Form 4
2026-03-02Fisher Daniel MarkofficerAward / grant10,882106,265Form 4
2026-03-02Albo GiuseppinadirectorAward / grant81,0151,186,675Form 4
2026-03-02Karrenbauer RaymondofficerAward / grant8,4288,428Form 4
2026-03-02Buckley Russell JohnofficerAward / grant6,8746,874Form 4
2026-03-02Carreiro Gemma ElizabethofficerAward / grant16,760190,615Form 4
2026-03-02Levenson Jonathan B.officerAward / grant7,07048,734Form 4
2026-02-24Albo GiuseppinadirectorWithheld for tax120,8091,143,478Form 4
2026-02-24Howie CraigofficerWithheld for tax34,374261,629Form 4
2026-02-24Daws Adrian JosephofficerWithheld for tax16,931197,246Form 4
2026-02-24Baker Alexander JamesofficerWithheld for tax12,39496,046Form 4
2026-02-24Fisher Daniel MarkofficerWithheld for tax8,59498,353Form 4
2026-02-24Kuchma Anita BreslinofficerWithheld for tax7,28682,278Form 4
2026-02-24Baker Alexander JamesofficerAward / grant26,370108,440Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.