HESM · TickerCove

HESMHess Midstream LPEnergy · Oil & Gas Midstreamas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.58 · now $39.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HESM has typically landed between $36.00 and $44.14 — a range of −9.0% to +11.5% from the issuance price $39.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,354 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$39.58 · 88% of range

$29.17 low$40.97 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.8%

typical move · IQR 7.9%

−9.0%worst (p90)+11.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HESM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $39.58 (+0.0%)
typical $40.3 (+1.8%)
middle 50% $38.74–$41.85
90% range $36–$44.14

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,354 windows spanning 2017-04-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−70.5%	−70.5%	+0.8%
2020-02-19	−63.9%	−70.4%	+1.4%
2020-02-14	−62.4%	−62.4%	+1.6%
3 best
2020-03-18	+121.6%	+0.0%	+121.6%
2020-03-30	+117.4%	+0.0%	+117.4%
2020-03-27	+98.8%	−2.8%	+98.8%

2,354 overlapping windows · 2017-04-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+8.8%

n=9

Feb

67%

+0.5%

n=9

Mar

56%

−5.0%

n=9

Apr

67%

+7.4%

n=9

May

60%

+2.6%

n=10

Jun

50%

−1.9%

n=10

Jul

90%

+5.2%

n=10

Aug

60%

−0.6%

n=10

Sep

50%

−3.1%

n=10

Oct

44%

+1.6%

n=9

Nov

78%

+4.0%

n=9

Dec

44%

+0.7%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-12	Gatling John A.	officer	Sale	62,457 @ $41.59	$2.6M	−100.0% of holding	−7.3%	−17.3%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09	Schoonman Geurt G	director	Sale	3,249 @ $39.10	$127K	−100.0% of holding	−6.1%	−22.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30	BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	15,022,517 @ $36.86	$553.7M	−100.0% of holding	−2.5%	−21.9%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-11	Gatling John A.	officer	Sale	2,087 @ $40.60	$85K	−3.2% of holding	−8.3%	−17.1%	62,457	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19	BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1,650,000 @ $39.11	$64.5M	−100.0% of holding	+13.4%	−0.7%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-12	BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	11,000,000 @ $39.11	$430.2M	−100.0% of holding	+14.9%	+3.1%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-08	Stein Jonathan C.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,048	60,963	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	344	1,783	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	308	2,664	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Withheld for tax	241	3,352	Form 4
2026-03-08	Stein Jonathan C.	officer	Option exercise	2,066	4,133	Form 4
2026-03-08	Stein Jonathan C.	officer	Option exercise	2,066	62,011	Form 4
2026-03-08	NIEMIEC DAVID W	director	Option exercise	1,612	50,527	Form 4
2026-03-08	NIEMIEC DAVID W	director	Option exercise	1,612	0	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Option exercise	929	3,593	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,327	0	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,189	1,189	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Option exercise	929	1,860	Form 4
2026-03-08	Letwin Stephen J J	director	Option exercise	1,612	0	Form 4
2026-03-08	Letwin Stephen J J	director	Award / grant	1,656	1,656	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,327	2,127	Form 4
2026-03-08	NIEMIEC DAVID W	director	Award / grant	1,656	1,656	Form 4
2026-03-08	REDDY J PATRICK	director	Award / grant	1,656	1,656	Form 4
2026-03-08	REDDY J PATRICK	director	Option exercise	1,612	24,437	Form 4
2026-03-08	REDDY J PATRICK	director	Option exercise	1,612	0	Form 4
2026-03-08	Bast Michael Scott	officer	Option exercise	1,189	2,972	Form 4
2026-03-08	Letwin Stephen J J	director	Option exercise	1,612	32,423	Form 4
2026-03-04	CHEVRON CORP	director	Disposition	455,811	77,827,485	Form 4
2026-03-04	CHEVRON CORP	director	Other acquisition	455,811	77,827,485	Form 4
2025-09-26	Gatling John A.	officer	Option exercise	4,757	7,705	Form 4
2025-09-26	Gatling John A.	officer	Option exercise	6,199	13,904	Form 4
2025-09-26	Gatling John A.	officer	Option exercise	2,948	0	Form 4
2025-09-26	Gatling John A.	officer	Option exercise	4,757	0	Form 4
2025-09-26	Gatling John A.	officer	Option exercise	6,199	0	Form 4
2025-09-26	Gatling John A.	officer	Option exercise	2,948	2,948	Form 4
2025-08-08	CHEVRON CORP	director	Disposition	695,894	78,283,296	Form 4
2025-08-08	CHEVRON CORP	director	Other acquisition	695,894	78,283,296	Form 4
2025-05-30	BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	14,573,517	0	Form 4
2025-05-30	BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	14,573,517	0	Form 4
2025-05-30	Hess Infrastructure Partners GP LLC	director	Other acquisition	29,147,034	0	Form 4
2025-05-30	Hess Infrastructure Partners GP LLC	director	Other acquisition	898,000	0	Form 4
2025-05-30	BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC	tenPercentOwner	Conversion	14,573,517	14,573,517	Form 4
2025-05-09	BlackRock Portfolio Management LLC	tenPercentOwner	Disposition	3,112,886	14,573,517	Form 4
2025-05-09	HESS CORP	director	Disposition	2,038,956	78,979,190	Form 4
2025-05-09	HESS CORP	director	Other acquisition	3,112,886	14,573,517	Form 4
2025-05-09	Hess Infrastructure Partners GP LLC	director	Other acquisition	6,225,772	29,147,034	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i