HELE · TickerCove

HELEHelen of Troy LimitedConsumer Defensive · Household & Personal Productsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $27.22 · now $27.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HELE has typically landed between $21.40 and $32.38 — a range of −21.4% to +19.0% from the issuance price $27.22.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($27.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$27.22 · 82% of range

$13.88 low$30.22 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.5%

typical move · IQR 17.8%

−21.4%worst (p90)+19.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HELE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $27.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $27.22 (+0.0%)
typical $26.54 (-2.5%)
middle 50% $24.11–$28.97
90% range $21.4–$32.38

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-03-31	−47.9%	−47.9%	+0.0%
2025-03-28	−47.4%	−47.4%	+0.0%
2025-04-01	−47.4%	−47.4%	+1.1%
3 best
2009-03-05	+74.6%	−1.9%	+74.6%
2026-03-30	+70.0%	+0.0%	+70.0%
2026-03-27	+68.9%	+0.0%	+71.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−2.1%

n=20

Feb

45%

−0.3%

n=20

Mar

50%

+0.8%

n=20

Apr

65%

+3.1%

n=20

May

50%

+2.9%

n=20

Jun

60%

+0.5%

n=20

Jul

40%

+0.1%

n=20

Aug

50%

+0.1%

n=20

Sep

45%

−2.1%

n=20

Oct

45%

+0.7%

n=20

Nov

75%

+2.5%

n=20

Dec

75%

+5.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-07-16	JUDGE TESSA	officer	Purchase	435 @ $22.87	$10K	+1.8% of holding	+1.9%	−26.1%	24,812	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-15	Grass Brian	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $21.47	$215K	+7.9% of holding	+16.6%	−19.0%	135,932	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-15	SCHEUERMAN TRACY	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $20.13	$201K	+43.4% of holding	+16.6%	−19.0%	33,041	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

79 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Uzzell George Scott	director	Withheld for tax	4,793	235,968	Form 4
2026-09-01	FADEL MITCHELL E	director	Award / grant	860	860	Form 4
2026-09-01	GOMEZ SADES TABATA LORENA	director	Award / grant	860	9,544	Form 4
2026-09-01	RAFF BERYL	director	Award / grant	860	14,639	Form 4
2026-09-01	Otero Elena	director	Award / grant	860	9,544	Form 4
2026-09-01	Woody Darren G	director	Award / grant	860	15,919	Form 4
2026-09-01	Platz Marlo Michelle Cormier	director	Award / grant	860	860	Form 4
2026-09-01	CASE THURMAN K	director	Award / grant	860	12,504	Form 4
2026-09-01	Berry Krista	director	Award / grant	860	12,326	Form 4
2026-06-01	RAFF BERYL	director	Award / grant	919	13,779	Form 4
2026-06-01	Woody Darren G	director	Award / grant	919	15,059	Form 4
2026-06-01	CARSON VINCENT D	director	Award / grant	919	20,763	Form 4
2026-06-01	Otero Elena	director	Award / grant	919	8,684	Form 4
2026-06-01	Berry Krista	director	Award / grant	919	11,466	Form 4
2026-06-01	CASE THURMAN K	director	Award / grant	919	11,644	Form 4
2026-06-01	GOMEZ SADES TABATA LORENA	director	Award / grant	919	8,684	Form 4
2026-06-01	Meeker Timothy F	director	Award / grant	919	14,359	Form 4
2026-05-01	Grass Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	16,041	171,236	Form 4
2026-05-01	Grass Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	4,812	187,277	Form 4
2026-03-06	Grass Brian	officer	Award / grant	60,716	192,089	Form 4
2026-03-06	Uzzell George Scott	director	Award / grant	109,289	240,761	Form 4
2026-03-04	Grass Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	2,949	131,373	Form 4
2026-03-02	Grass Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	1,288	134,322	Form 4
2026-03-02	CARSON VINCENT D	director	Award / grant	1,429	19,844	Form 4
2026-03-02	GOMEZ SADES TABATA LORENA	director	Award / grant	1,429	7,765	Form 4
2026-03-02	Meeker Timothy F	director	Award / grant	1,429	13,440	Form 4
2026-03-02	Woody Darren G	director	Award / grant	1,429	14,140	Form 4
2026-03-02	Berry Krista	director	Award / grant	1,429	10,547	Form 4
2026-03-02	Otero Elena	director	Award / grant	1,429	7,765	Form 4
2026-03-02	RAFF BERYL	director	Award / grant	1,429	12,860	Form 4
2026-03-02	CASE THURMAN K	director	Award / grant	1,429	10,725	Form 4
2025-12-01	CARSON VINCENT D	director	Award / grant	1,253	18,415	Form 4
2025-12-01	CASE THURMAN K	director	Award / grant	1,253	9,296	Form 4
2025-12-01	Berry Krista	director	Award / grant	1,253	9,118	Form 4
2025-12-01	GOMEZ SADES TABATA LORENA	director	Award / grant	1,253	6,336	Form 4
2025-12-01	RAFF BERYL	director	Award / grant	1,253	11,431	Form 4
2025-12-01	Meeker Timothy F	director	Award / grant	1,253	12,011	Form 4
2025-12-01	Woody Darren G	director	Award / grant	1,253	12,711	Form 4
2025-12-01	Otero Elena	director	Award / grant	1,253	6,336	Form 4
2025-10-06	Grass Brian	officer	Withheld for tax	322	135,610	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i