Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.23 · now $10.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HE has typically landed between $8.59 and $11.78 — a range of −16.0% to +15.1% from the issuance price $10.23.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.23 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.22 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.64–$10.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.59–$11.78
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-07-27 | −74.6% | −74.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-26 | −69.4% | −69.4% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-25 | −68.6% | −68.8% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-07-08 | +108.9% | +0.0% | +126.2% |
| 2024-07-05 | +107.5% | −4.2% | +116.7% |
| 2024-07-01 | +102.4% | −5.4% | +114.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Ajello James A | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 9,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Aquilino John C | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 17,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Connors Celeste Anne | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 34,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | FOWLER PEGGY Y | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 9,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Flores Elisia | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 33,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | SCILACCI W JAMES | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 35,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | JOHNS TIMOTHY E | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 9,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | KIPP MARY E | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 23,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | KANE MICAH A. | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 41,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Taniguchi Toby B. | director | Award / grant | 9,238 | 25,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | SEU SCOTT W.H. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,583 | 52,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | KIMURA SHELEE M.T. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,277 | 26,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Murao Kurt K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 528 | 37,867 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-13 | FOWLER PEGGY Y | director | Gift | 11,759 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-13 | FOWLER PEGGY Y | director | Gift | 11,759 | 63,888 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | FARGO THOMAS B | director | Award / grant | 11,759 | 11,759 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | FOWLER PEGGY Y | director | Award / grant | 11,759 | 11,759 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Flores Elisia | director | Award / grant | 11,759 | 24,758 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | SCILACCI W JAMES | director | Award / grant | 11,759 | 26,485 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | KANE MICAH A. | director | Award / grant | 11,759 | 32,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Connors Celeste Anne | director | Award / grant | 11,759 | 25,440 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | SEU SCOTT W.H. | director | Withheld for tax | 4,439 | 54,080 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | KIMURA SHELEE M.T. | director | Withheld for tax | 2,780 | 28,196 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-21 | Murao Kurt K. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,032 | 36,394 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.