Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.21 · now $5.21 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HDSN has typically landed between $4.08 and $6.54 — a range of −21.7% to +25.5% from the issuance price $5.21.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.21) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HDSN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.21 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.21 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.23 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.76–$5.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.08–$6.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-05-22 | −62.5% | −62.5% | +0.0% |
| 2019-05-21 | −59.0% | −59.0% | +5.4% |
| 2008-09-10 | −57.7% | −57.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2012-01-04 | +115.3% | +0.0% | +115.3% |
| 2012-01-05 | +114.3% | +0.0% | +114.3% |
| 2019-08-23 | +112.9% | +0.0% | +138.7% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,317 @ $5.10 | $27K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,205,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 91,166 @ $5.50 | $501K | +1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,200,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 9,446 @ $5.50 | $52K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,108,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,198 @ $5.50 | $29K | +0.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,099,388 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 52,104 @ $5.99 | $312K | +1.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,094,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 47,708 @ $5.99 | $286K | +1.0% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,042,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 17,842 @ $5.99 | $107K | +0.4% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,994,378 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 600 @ $5.99 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,976,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 4,634 @ $5.99 | $28K | +0.1% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,975,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 271,302 @ $5.97 | $1.6M | +5.8% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,971,302 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 288,111 @ $5.88 | $1.7M | +6.5% of holding | +6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,700,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Hartree Partners, LP | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 204,789 @ $5.68 | $1.2M | +4.9% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,411,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Bertaux Brian J. | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $4.87 | $10K | ownership Δ n/a | +18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Feeler Jeffrey R | director | Purchase | 5,100 @ $4.92 | $25K | +125.5% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Mansy Loan Nguyen | director | Purchase | 3,600 @ $4.96 | $18K | +17.5% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Parrillo Richard | director | Purchase | 3,600 @ $4.96 | $18K | +17.5% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Parrillo Richard | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $4.97 | $7K | +5.8% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Mansy Loan Nguyen | director | Purchase | 1,400 @ $4.97 | $7K | +5.8% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Bulgarino Nicole E | director | Purchase | 550 @ $4.84 | $3K | +5.2% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Sheriff Alan | director | Purchase | 5,200 @ $4.88 | $25K | +127.9% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Gaglione Kenneth | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.89 | $24K | ownership Δ n/a | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Prouty Eric A | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.84 | $24K | +3.4% of holding | +17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | COLEMAN BRIAN F | director | Sale | 484,616 @ $7.40 | $3.6M | −20.0% of holding | −4.6% | −32.3% | 1,944,312 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | ABBATECOLA VINCENT P | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $6.79 | $24K | +2.1% of holding | +10.0% | −37.3% | 169,748 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Mansy Loan Nguyen | director | Award / grant | 8,881 | 34,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Mansy Loan Nguyen | director | Award / grant | 21,186 | 21,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Parrillo Richard | director | Award / grant | 31,780 | 31,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Prouty Eric A | director | Award / grant | 4,440 | 158,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Prouty Eric A | director | Award / grant | 21,186 | 21,186 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sheriff Alan | director | Award / grant | 3,219 | 12,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Sheriff Alan | director | Award / grant | 15,360 | 15,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Feeler Jeffrey R | director | Award / grant | 3,219 | 12,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Bulgarino Nicole E | director | Award / grant | 31,780 | 31,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Feeler Jeffrey R | director | Award / grant | 15,360 | 15,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Sheriff Alan | director | Award / grant | 4,065 | 4,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Feeler Jeffrey R | director | Award / grant | 4,065 | 4,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Withheld for tax | 44,873 | 116,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Withheld for tax | 34,382 | 158,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Option exercise | 50,888 | 193,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Withheld for tax | 21,797 | 142,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Option exercise | 120,000 | 161,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Option exercise | 47,619 | 163,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Option exercise | 50,888 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Option exercise | 120,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-08 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Option exercise | 47,619 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-24 | Gaglione Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 216,309 | 216,309 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-24 | ABBATECOLA VINCENT P | director | Withheld for tax | 3,519 | 166,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-24 | ABBATECOLA VINCENT P | director | Option exercise | 4,744 | 169,767 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-24 | ABBATECOLA VINCENT P | director | Option exercise | 4,744 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | Prouty Eric A | director | Option exercise | 4,744 | 152,565 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | Prouty Eric A | director | Withheld for tax | 3,713 | 148,852 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | Prouty Eric A | director | Option exercise | 4,744 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Parrillo Richard | director | Award / grant | 3,182 | 185,746 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Parrillo Richard | director | Award / grant | 13,698 | 13,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | ABBATECOLA VINCENT P | director | Award / grant | 13,698 | 13,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | ABBATECOLA VINCENT P | director | Award / grant | 3,182 | 165,023 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Bulgarino Nicole E | director | Award / grant | 3,182 | 10,498 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Bulgarino Nicole E | director | Award / grant | 13,698 | 13,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Mansy Loan Nguyen | director | Award / grant | 6,365 | 20,595 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Prouty Eric A | director | Award / grant | 3,182 | 147,821 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Prouty Eric A | director | Award / grant | 13,698 | 13,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Mansy Loan Nguyen | director | Award / grant | 13,698 | 13,698 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Bertaux Brian J. | officer | Award / grant | 55,109 | 55,109 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Houghton Kathleen | director | Award / grant | 72,477 | 72,477 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.