HDThe Home Depot, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Home Improvementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $302.47 · now $302.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HD has typically landed between $269.41 and $334.57 — a range of −10.9% to +10.6% from the issuance price $302.47.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($302.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $302.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$269.41worst · -10.9%$334.57best · +10.6%
  • now $302.47 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $304.06 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $288.91–$319.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $269.41–$334.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−38.0%−38.0%+0.0%
2020-02-18−35.8%−35.8%+1.3%
2020-02-19−33.4%−35.7%+1.4%
3 best
2009-03-06+39.8%+0.0%+40.7%
2009-03-05+39.5%−0.8%+39.5%
2009-03-09+35.4%+0.0%+38.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$332.0B
market cap
$14.08
EPS (TTM)
23.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-18
next earnings
Revenue$164.7B
'20'25
Net income$14.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$12.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr8.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr110.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr5.10
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $302.47$273.91$446.93
  • DCF (intrinsic)$285.84
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$335.40
  • Analyst target · range $320.00–$435.00$369.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$302.47

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.5%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
79%
+2.9%
n=19
May
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Jun
68%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
53%
+2.7%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.4%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.7%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$415$2952026-09-10: 1 insider sale, $207K — Scardino Kimberly R2026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $807K — Roseborough Teresa Wynn2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $239K — Rowe Michael F.2026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — McPhail Richard V2026-03-04: 2 insider sales, $1.6M — McPhail Richard V, Deaton John A.2025-12-26: 2 insider sales, $1.0M — Roseborough Teresa Wynn …2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $696K — BROWN ANGIE2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $52K — Campbell Ann Marie2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $974K — Bastek William D2025-08-22: 3 insider sales, $3.8M — Roseborough Teresa Wynn, Bastek William D …2025-08-21: 2 insider sales, $13.1M — Decker Edward P. …2025-08-20: 3 insider sales, $2.4M — McPhail Richard V, Padilla Hector A, BROWN ANGIE2025-08: 8 open-market sales, $19.3M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $974K2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $207K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Scardino Kimberly R — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roseborough Teresa Wynn — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rowe Michael F. — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McPhail Richard V — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McPhail Richard V — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Deaton John A. — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Roseborough Teresa Wynn — Sale on 2025-12-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Roseborough Teresa Wynn — Sale on 2025-12-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer BROWN ANGIE — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Campbell Ann Marie — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bastek William D — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Roseborough Teresa Wynn — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bastek William D — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Roseborough Teresa Wynn — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Decker Edward P. — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Decker Edward P. — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer McPhail Richard V — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Padilla Hector A — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer BROWN ANGIE — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Scardino Kimberly RofficerSale675 @ $305.95$207K−7.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,189Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-28Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorSale2,455 @ $328.77$807K−14.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,061Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-26Rowe Michael F.officerSale710 @ $336.76$239K−9.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open6,838Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19McPhail Richard VofficerSale5,989 @ $348.40$2.1M−11.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open48,104Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04McPhail Richard VofficerSale2,550 @ $368.89$941K−5.4% of holding−8.3%−25.4%44,566Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Deaton John A.officerSale1,793 @ $369.00$662K−11.3% of holding−8.3%−25.4%14,129Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-26Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorSale2,608 @ $348.48$909K−16.2% of holding+6.6%−6.5%13,460Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-26Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorSale264 @ $348.96$92K−2.0% of holding+6.6%−6.5%13,196Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12BROWN ANGIEofficerSale1,946 @ $357.63$696K−33.1% of holding+3.0%−15.6%3,941Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11Campbell Ann MarieofficerSale145 @ $358.26$52K−1.2% of holding+5.3%−16.6%12,320Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12Bastek William DofficerSale2,303 @ $423.12$974K−8.7% of holding−11.4%−20.2%24,235Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorSale4,103 @ $413.24$1.7M−19.0% of holding−3.0%−12.8%17,437Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22Bastek William DofficerSale3,783 @ $410.23$1.6M−13.5% of holding−3.0%−12.8%24,235Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorSale1,380 @ $413.22$570K−7.9% of holding−3.0%−12.8%16,057Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-21Decker Edward P.directorSale20,059 @ $397.45$8.0M−14.1% of holding−1.0%−12.0%122,425Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21Decker Edward P.directorSale12,838 @ $396.85$5.1M−8.3% of holding−1.0%−12.0%142,484Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20McPhail Richard VofficerSale3,369 @ $403.66$1.4M−6.9% of holding−0.2%−12.4%45,455Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-20Padilla Hector AofficerSale1,585 @ $404.17$641K−10.2% of holding−0.2%−12.4%13,929Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-20BROWN ANGIEofficerSale1,000 @ $404.07$404K−20.7% of holding−0.2%−12.4%3,837Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03Deaton John A.officerSale8,892 @ $369.99$3.3M−38.0% of holding−5.0%−19.0%14,490Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorSale5,406 @ $369.28$2.0M−23.7% of holding−4.1%−19.0%17,367Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22Siddiqui FahimofficerSale2,600 @ $367.14$955K−24.6% of holding−5.3%−20.7%7,951Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-03-14BRENNEMAN GREGORY DdirectorPurchase1,442 @ $346.66$500Kownership Δ n/a+5.6%+3.6%1,442Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

237 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Bastek William DofficerAward / grant1,49426,789Form 4
2026-08-20Broggi JordanofficerAward / grant1,49410,996Form 4
2026-08-20McPhail Richard VofficerAward / grant1,49449,598Form 4
2026-08-19McPhail Richard VofficerOption exercise5,98954,093Form 4
2026-08-19McPhail Richard VofficerOption exercise5,9890Form 4
2026-05-28Rowe Michael F.officerOther acquisition7140Form 4
2026-05-28Rowe Michael F.officerOther acquisition7140Form 4
2026-05-21BRENNEMAN GREGORY DdirectorAward / grant44642,463Form 4
2026-05-21Brown J FrankdirectorAward / grant2879,750Form 4
2026-05-21BOUSBIB ARIdirectorAward / grant27123,612Form 4
2026-05-21BOYD JEFFERY HdirectorAward / grant2713,189Form 4
2026-05-21Hewett Wayne M.directorAward / grant2712,574Form 4
2026-05-21Seidman Becker CaryndirectorAward / grant191951Form 4
2026-05-21Linnartz StephaniedirectorAward / grant1911,962Form 4
2026-05-21Kadre ManueldirectorAward / grant1911,942Form 4
2026-05-21Santilli PauladirectorAward / grant191951Form 4
2026-05-21Sharma AshadirectorAward / grant191345Form 4
2026-05-21Hewett Wayne M.directorAward / grant79619,424Form 4
2026-05-21Kadre ManueldirectorAward / grant7968,770Form 4
2026-05-21BRENNEMAN GREGORY DdirectorAward / grant796109,553Form 4
2026-05-21Santilli PauladirectorAward / grant7964,211Form 4
2026-05-21BOYD JEFFERY HdirectorAward / grant79612,913Form 4
2026-05-21ARPEY GERARD JdirectorAward / grant79615,420Form 4
2026-05-21Seidman Becker CaryndirectorAward / grant7964,211Form 4
2026-05-21BOUSBIB ARIdirectorAward / grant79690,686Form 4
2026-05-21Sharma AshadirectorAward / grant7961,482Form 4
2026-05-21Brown J FrankdirectorAward / grant796796Form 4
2026-05-21Linnartz StephaniedirectorAward / grant7968,864Form 4
2026-05-20BELL FRANZISKAofficerAward / grant51,51651,516Form 4
2026-04-03Bastek William DofficerWithheld for tax2,97225,224Form 4
2026-03-25BROWN ANGIEofficerAward / grant2,2556,732Form 4
2026-03-25Scardino Kimberly RofficerAward / grant2,3582,358Form 4
2026-03-25Scardino Kimberly RofficerAward / grant9028,864Form 4
2026-03-25SMITH STEPHANIEofficerAward / grant6,1326,132Form 4
2026-03-25McPhail Richard VofficerAward / grant3,96948,021Form 4
2026-03-25SMITH STEPHANIEofficerAward / grant2,3457,912Form 4
2026-03-25McPhail Richard VofficerAward / grant10,37810,378Form 4
2026-03-25Roseborough Teresa WynndirectorAward / grant6,3806,380Form 4
2026-03-25Rowe Michael F.officerAward / grant5,8965,896Form 4
2026-03-25Rowe Michael F.officerAward / grant2,2557,431Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-24$50–100K
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
James A. HimesHousesale2026-07-202026-07-20$15–50K
Lloyd DoggettHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-05-282026-05-15$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-05-282026-05-15$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-05-192026-04-09$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.