Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.00 · now $10.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HCIC has typically landed between $9.99 and $10.09 — a range of −0.1% to +0.9% from the issuance price $10.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
97 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-03-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where HCIC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.03 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.01–$10.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.99–$10.09
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-02 | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-06 | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-07 | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-04 | +1.0% | +0.0% | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-03 | +1.0% | +0.0% | +1.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | +1.0% | +0.0% | +1.0% |
97 overlapping windows · 2026-03-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | HC VIII Sponsor LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 671,000 @ $10.00 | $6.7M | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 671,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Purchase | 671,000 @ $10.00 | $6.7M | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 671,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Hennessy Thomas D | director | Purchase | 671,000 @ $10.00 | $6.7M | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 671,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
3 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | HC VIII Sponsor LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,782,086 | 9,512,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | HENNESSY DANIEL J | director | Other acquisition | 1,782,086 | 9,512,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Hennessy Thomas D | director | Other acquisition | 1,782,086 | 9,512,515 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.