HCIHCI Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $188.06 · now $188.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HCI has typically landed between $156.02 and $224.26 — a range of −17.0% to +19.2% from the issuance price $188.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,508 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-09-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($188.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HCI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $188.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$156.02worst · -17.0%$224.26best · +19.2%
  • now $188.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $191.83 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $177.66–$206
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $156.02–$224.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,508 windows spanning 2008-09-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-09-22−38.3%−38.3%+0.0%
2022-09-23−36.0%−36.0%+0.0%
2022-09-21−35.7%−35.7%+0.0%
3 best
2023-10-26+54.4%−0.1%+54.7%
2012-06-07+53.2%+0.0%+53.2%
2023-10-25+52.1%−1.8%+52.1%

4,508 overlapping windows · 2008-09-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.1%
n=18
Feb
67%
+4.5%
n=18
Mar
50%
+3.4%
n=18
Apr
33%
−0.3%
n=18
May
56%
+2.7%
n=18
Jun
50%
+2.3%
n=18
Jul
61%
+2.9%
n=18
Aug
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Sep
61%
+3.4%
n=18
Oct
56%
+5.3%
n=18
Nov
56%
+3.6%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$205$149↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11Burks Robert WaynedirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Watts SusandirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Burks Robert WaynedirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Politis PeterdirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Politis GregorydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Madhu SanjaydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Madhu SanjaydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Politis GregorydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Politis PeterdirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-06-11Watts SusandirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2026-05-22Saravanos AnthonydirectorWithheld for tax13,3840Form 4
2026-05-22Coleman Karin SuedirectorWithheld for tax13,3790Form 4
2026-05-22Graham Andrew L.directorWithheld for tax13,3790Form 4
2026-05-22Harmsworth James MarkofficerWithheld for tax13,3790Form 4
2026-02-23Patel PareshdirectorOption exercise20,00089,500Form 4
2026-02-23Patel PareshdirectorOption exercise20,00090,000Form 4
2025-12-19Harmsworth James MarkofficerAward / grant1,2511,251Form 4
2025-12-19Graham Andrew L.directorAward / grant1,2511,251Form 4
2025-12-19Coleman Karin SuedirectorAward / grant1,2511,251Form 4
2025-12-19Saravanos AnthonydirectorAward / grant621621Form 4
2025-12-19Graham Andrew L.directorAward / grant1,2511,251Form 4
2025-12-19Coleman Karin SuedirectorAward / grant1,2511,251Form 4
2025-12-19Saravanos AnthonydirectorAward / grant621621Form 4
2025-12-19Harmsworth James MarkofficerAward / grant1,2511,251Form 4
2025-07-21Madhu SanjaydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Madhu SanjaydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Politis GregorydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Politis PeterdirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Watts SusandirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Burks Robert WaynedirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Watts SusandirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Burks Robert WaynedirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Politis PeterdirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-07-21Politis GregorydirectorAward / grant750750Form 4
2025-02-26Harmsworth James MarkofficerWithheld for tax2230Form 4
2025-02-26Coleman Karin SuedirectorWithheld for tax2230Form 4
2025-02-26Saravanos AnthonydirectorWithheld for tax2230Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.