HCC · TickerCove

HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.Energy · Coalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.72 · now $92.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HCC has typically landed between $78.01 and $115.73 — a range of −15.9% to +24.8% from the issuance price $92.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,347 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-04-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$92.72 · 64% of range

$61.59 low$110.18 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.5%

typical move · IQR 17.7%

−15.9%worst (p90)+24.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HCC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $92.72 (+0.0%)
typical $95.04 (+2.5%)
middle 50% $86.81–$103.26
90% range $78.01–$115.73

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,347 windows spanning 2017-04-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-11	−42.7%	−42.7%	+3.4%
2020-03-02	−42.6%	−46.1%	+0.9%
2020-02-27	−42.4%	−42.4%	+7.9%
3 best
2017-11-09	+533.7%	+0.0%	+534.4%
2017-11-08	+530.5%	−0.6%	+530.5%
2017-11-07	+516.9%	−1.8%	+516.9%

2,347 overlapping windows · 2017-04-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

78%

+4.7%

n=9

Feb

44%

−1.1%

n=9

Mar

44%

−2.8%

n=9

Apr

56%

+6.0%

n=9

May

60%

+3.3%

n=10

Jun

60%

−0.5%

n=10

Jul

70%

+6.6%

n=10

Aug

50%

+6.0%

n=10

Sep

60%

+1.7%

n=10

Oct

56%

+4.0%

n=9

Nov

67%

+58.0%

n=9

Dec

78%

+5.8%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Sale	50,000 @ $110.00	$5.5M	−15.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	267,793	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Sale	50,000 @ $105.00	$5.3M	−13.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	317,793	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Williams Stephen D.	director	Sale	4,800 @ $104.23	$500K	−13.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	30,303	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Chopin Brian M	officer	Sale	3,232 @ $104.02	$336K	−13.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	21,110	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-02	Gant Kelli K.	officer	Sale	20,000 @ $110.00	$2.2M	−22.8% of holding	−25.0%	not yet — horizon still open	67,775	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-12	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Sale	100,000 @ $100.31	$10.0M	−25.4% of holding	−9.1%	−27.3%	294,183	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-12	Gant Kelli K.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $100.00	$1.0M	−12.4% of holding	−9.1%	−27.3%	70,580	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-13	Chopin Brian M	officer	Sale	1,498 @ $80.54	$121K	−7.0% of holding	+2.6%	−3.8%	19,824	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	Chopin Brian M	officer	Sale	585 @ $84.75	$50K	−2.7% of holding	−0.5%	−7.3%	21,322	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-06	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Sale	18,966 @ $75.00	$1.4M	−4.6% of holding	−4.7%	−3.4%	394,183	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22	Richardson Jack K.	officer	Purchase	1,815 @ $46.43	$84K	+1.0% of holding	−9.3%	+50.9%	188,933	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

180 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-23	Williams Stephen D.	director	Option exercise	2,534	0	Form 4
2026-04-23	HARVEY J BRETT	director	Option exercise	3,041	43,001	Form 4
2026-04-23	HARVEY J BRETT	director	Option exercise	3,041	0	Form 4
2026-04-23	Chainey Kimberly	director	Option exercise	2,534	2,534	Form 4
2026-04-23	Chainey Kimberly	director	Option exercise	2,534	0	Form 4
2026-04-23	Williams Stephen D.	director	Option exercise	2,534	35,103	Form 4
2026-04-23	SCHUMACHER ALAN H	director	Option exercise	2,534	42,054	Form 4
2026-04-23	SCHUMACHER ALAN H	director	Option exercise	2,534	0	Form 4
2026-04-23	Schnorr Lisa M.	director	Option exercise	2,534	11,857	Form 4
2026-04-23	Schnorr Lisa M.	director	Option exercise	2,534	0	Form 4
2026-04-20	Williams Stephen D.	director	Award / grant	1,423	1,423	Form 4
2026-04-20	HARVEY J BRETT	director	Award / grant	1,708	1,708	Form 4
2026-04-20	Schnorr Lisa M.	director	Award / grant	1,423	1,423	Form 4
2026-04-20	Chainey Kimberly	director	Award / grant	1,423	1,423	Form 4
2026-04-20	SCHUMACHER ALAN H	director	Award / grant	1,423	1,423	Form 4
2026-02-10	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Withheld for tax	2,119	367,793	Form 4
2026-02-10	Richardson Jack K.	officer	Withheld for tax	806	217,667	Form 4
2026-02-10	Boyles Dale W	director	Withheld for tax	790	187,601	Form 4
2026-02-10	Gant Kelli K.	officer	Withheld for tax	638	87,775	Form 4
2026-02-10	Lussier Charles	officer	Withheld for tax	511	85,185	Form 4
2026-02-10	Chopin Brian M	officer	Withheld for tax	158	24,342	Form 4
2026-02-10	Boyles Dale W	director	Option exercise	1,780	188,391	Form 4
2026-02-10	Chopin Brian M	officer	Option exercise	421	842	Form 4
2026-02-10	Gant Kelli K.	officer	Option exercise	1,438	2,878	Form 4
2026-02-10	Chopin Brian M	officer	Option exercise	421	24,500	Form 4
2026-02-10	Boyles Dale W	director	Option exercise	1,780	3,561	Form 4
2026-02-10	Richardson Jack K.	officer	Option exercise	2,157	218,473	Form 4
2026-02-10	Lussier Charles	officer	Option exercise	1,150	85,696	Form 4
2026-02-10	Lussier Charles	officer	Option exercise	1,150	2,300	Form 4
2026-02-10	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Option exercise	4,776	369,912	Form 4
2026-02-10	Richardson Jack K.	officer	Option exercise	2,157	4,315	Form 4
2026-02-10	Gant Kelli K.	officer	Option exercise	1,438	88,413	Form 4
2026-02-10	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Option exercise	4,776	9,553	Form 4
2026-02-09	SCHELLER WALTER J	director	Withheld for tax	52,179	365,136	Form 4
2026-02-09	Richardson Jack K.	officer	Withheld for tax	14,720	216,316	Form 4
2026-02-09	Boyles Dale W	director	Withheld for tax	14,671	186,611	Form 4
2026-02-09	Gant Kelli K.	officer	Withheld for tax	11,801	86,975	Form 4
2026-02-09	Lussier Charles	officer	Withheld for tax	9,144	84,546	Form 4
2026-02-09	Chopin Brian M	officer	Withheld for tax	2,299	24,079	Form 4
2026-02-09	Boyles Dale W	director	Award / grant	3,211	3,211	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i